XPEV stock forecast 2025: can selling software make money?

The new energy vehicle industry has a relatively high degree of attention, that is, Xiaopeng(XPEV) released its first-quarter 2021 financial report.

The general performance data of XPEV are as follows:

The total delivery volume reached 13,340 units, a year-on-year increase of 487.4%.

Total revenue was USD 450 million, a year-on-year increase of 616.1%.

Auto sales revenue was US$429 million, an increase of 655.2% year-on-year.

The gross profit margin was 11.2%, compared with -4.8% and 7.4% in the same period last year and the fourth quarter of 2020, respectively.

The gross profit margin of automobile sales was 10.1%, compared with -5.3% and 6.8% in the same period last year and the fourth quarter of 2020.

To be honest, this data itself is not eye-catching in comparison with Weilai and ideals. Although for officials, this quarter’s financial report has ushered in two major milestones.

One is that gross profit margin continues to improve and climbs to double digits; Software revenue is included in revenue, confirming the sales revenue of XPILOT software.

Just look at the year-on-year growth in this data. After all, the epidemic raged during the same period last year, so this year's growth data are generally in this situation, and there is no surprise.

In fact, the challenges faced by Xiaopeng Motors are still severe.

First of all, from a product perspective, as Xiaopeng’s current flagship product, the P7 has not been satisfactory in terms of market performance—the main models are the P7 with 266,900 and 276,900, and all parameters are excellent.

XPEV the sales volume is quite satisfactory, and there is not even Weilaiduo, which has a higher transaction price.

Xiaopeng's models are P7+G3, no matter which one is not as high as ES6 and ideal ONE, so in terms of quality, Xiaopeng's results are indeed inferior.

And this is the problem Xiaopeng is solving.

In my opinion, there are many underlying reasons for Xiaopeng’s sales problem, but one of the most important reasons is that all P7 owners know it, but Xiaopeng himself seems reluctant to invest resources to solve it.

XPEV One of the biggest problems of this car company is that it is really not good at user operations.

In the opinion of some car owners, although they have bought Xiaopeng's car, if Xiaopeng does not make some major changes, then they are not really looking forward to the development of Xiaopeng in the long run.

Xiaopeng is a bit far away from users compared to Weilai and Ideal in the eyes of many car owners.

This can be reflected in many details. For example, the owners of Weilai and ideal car owners have encountered problems. After feedback, relevant people will find ways to help the car owners solve them as soon as possible. However, Xiaopeng’s operational logic is in line with traditional car companies. Similar "sink logic".

The so-called sinking logic is easier to understand. It uses various methods, or simply ignores it, and lets this matter sink in the vast ocean of information on the Internet. All problems encountered by car owners will be released later. As for unhappy car owners if the leaders and the media can't see them.

This is also the reason why Xiaopeng is currently in the leading position in terms of technological content and autonomous driving, but it is far inferior to Weilai in terms of the old and new ratios.

Many times the user's request is not excessive, but Xiaopeng just pretends not to see it and has no choice but to come out to appease.

The most typical example is the Brembo brake of Xiaopeng P7. The abnormal noise is severe on rainy days. It is basically a common problem recognized among car owners. This problem has been discussed for several months. Although Xiaopeng promised to replace it for free, it did not. Do it well.

So for Xiaopeng, the biggest shortcoming of this car company is user operation and after-sales service. Although Xiaopeng also has very good projects such as X moment in operation, the overall feedback to users is still consistent with that of Wei. There is a certain gap between coming and ideals.

NIO, which can be regarded as a benchmark in terms of user operations and after-sales services, with the increase in the number of car owners, many non-mainstream voices have gradually increased. For example, the recent collective "rights protection" seat for NIO owners is a very important issue. Typical embodiment.

And Xiaopeng currently does not have an actual up-scale model, so many car owners’ dissatisfaction with the P7 has not been passed on.

But this group of car owners will no longer recommend people around them to buy, and this also means that the effects of old and new ones will be greatly discounted because of after-sales and user operations.

At this point, I need to emphasize one thing. Most Xiaopeng P7 owners are very satisfied with this product, but from an investor's point of view, it is not a good thing that such an excellent product as P7 cannot be sold.

I believe that if the operation and after-sales problems can be solved, it will become a turning point for Xiaopeng’s sales.

Next, let's talk about the recognized bright spots in Xiaopeng's financial report

DennisLu disclosed in the conference call that the XPILOT3.0 software revenue in this financial report was 80 million U.S. dollars, of which 50 million U.S. dollars was last year's revenue, and the remaining 30 million U.S. dollars was this year's software revenue. In terms of proportion, the software revenues this time merged accounted for 2.5% of the total revenue of the financial report.

This means that Xiaopeng's development space is indeed very imaginative.

How big is the software potential of XPEV?

A P7 owner, because he didn’t trust Xiaopeng, although he bought the P7 but did not buy the Xpilot 3.0 software, and from his point of view, he bought the earlier Weilai ES6 because of the NP function. There is no need to buy more auto-assisted driving software.

But after the launch of NGP, he said to me a bit "deeply regret".

Because the Xpilot 3.0 software is only 20,000 yuan when ordering a car, the price of the software after picking up the car will become 36,000 yuan. When it was launched, the performance of NGP was very amazing, and it was basically better than version 2.9.0 of NIO. The previous NOP.

He must be reluctant to spend RMB 36,000, but what about NGP?

The answer is obvious: the "paid subscription" model used by Internet companies that we are very familiar with. In this model, users can enjoy the same experience as full-paid purchases at a very low cost.

For NGP, most people may not travel far most of the time, but when traveling far, you can temporarily pay to activate NGP to get a better experience, which will greatly reduce the experience threshold of Xpilot3.0.

This means that for auto companies such as Tesla, NIO, Xiaopeng, and Ideal, as the software ecosystem becomes more abundant and autonomous driving functions become more and more powerful, they will transform from traditional manufacturing valuations to a kind of new type of software company.

To sum up, Xiaopeng Motors will focus on the following in the future:

1. Is it possible to increase the ratio of old to new ones by improving after-sales and user operations?

2. When will the subsequent subscription model of Xpilot3.0 software be launched?

3. The new model P5 is equipped with lidar, and in the future, it will be able to turn on the auto-assisted driving function in the urban area. Can it become a real volume product?

Comments

The five stages of company growth!

company Many people who study stocks will analyze the fundamentals of the stock, such as viewing its performance report, PE, PB, PEG, debt ratio, dividend ratio, cash flow, ROE, EPS growth, etc. I don't know if you tried it. After performing many basic analyses, you will feel that the prospects for a particular stock are very good. You have even read the analysis reports of many large banks, or listened to the analysis of many market participants and obtained a consistent high evaluation. Then, you will think that this stock will grow in the future, so you buy it and think that you can use this stock to create a better future from now on, and the final development of the story is the opposite of the fact that the development direction will eventually Put you in trouble or lose money. I will not deny the importance of basic analysis, because, in addition to focusing on technical analysis, I am also very concerned about the company's basic factors. I am an investor fo...

Catherine Wood's Disruptive Innovation ETF: Is ARKK worth buying?

ARKK ETF by Catherine Wood Catherine Wood's Disruptive Innovation ETF Warren Buffett is a stock god that everyone respected in the past, but in the past year, the female stock god Catherine Wood has become famous for the rising trend of technology stocks, and his head completely overshadows Buffett. Therefore, this time I want to talk to you in detail about the prestigious history of this female stock god. Catherine Wood founded ARK Investment in 2014 and listed the funds under her management under Exchange Traded Funds to facilitate investors to buy and sell, but the management fee is as low as some passive funds that track an index, about 0.75% per year. Ark Investment launched 4 ETFs in September and October 2014. The themes are Next Generation Internet, Automation Technology and Robots, Innovative Technology, and Genetics. Among them, Innovative Technology is currently the flagship ETF of Ark Investment and the most most popular ETF w...

The signal that the stock market has peaked?

the stock market Although I know how to judge when the bear market is over and when I should buy at the bottom, I still don't know how to judge the selling at the top. I'm afraid I don't know when to leave the market after buying stocks in the future. If you have also tried to avoid the crash, stock market crash, and even bear market, or always hold stocks at these times. These four tricks are based on my experience in the stock market for more than 10 years. They help me hold cash early before many market declines, so I suggest that you must see the end. It is likely to help you invest in stocks. Raise to another level. Because knowing how to go is more important than knowing how to buy, and knowing how to go is an important factor in determining how much you can earn or lose. The first trick, everyone needs to learn to identify the Distribution Day. As the name implies, the shipping day is a day of huge selling pressure. On that day, it may be that large account...

4 George Soros advice to investors!

Who is George Soros? George Soros is a Hungarian-born Jewish businessman. It is one of the most influential investors in the world. In 1969, the Double Eagle Fund was established for Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, an investment management company. In 1973, Soros and his assistant Rogers left Bleichroeder to co-found Soros Fund Management. In 1979, the well-known Quantum Fund was established and continued to make profits. In the Asian financial turmoil in 1997, George Soros sniped the Thai baht and the Hong Kong dollar, which was frightening. Learning from the experiences of successful people can benefit a lot. Here are 4 tips George Soros gave investors. First, to be successful, you must have ample free time. Most people want to be rich, but not everyone realizes the importance of free time. Many people spend a lot of time working to accumulate wealth, sleep, and forget. Set the goal to complete the work indicated by the superior, or the needs of business partners. But they hav...

Many companies will China close in 2020?

Starting in March, all walks of life in China began to resume work. People stayed at home for more than two months. Many people's moods changed from tension to leisure, and now they are anxious. It's not just the bosses who are anxious. Many employees find that their rents and mortgages are still being paid, the holidays are extended, they can't go to work, and their salaries aren't. Whenever there is no money it is a big problem. More than 700 companies closed down in February, but getting fewer wages is also better than the company suddenly closing down. In February, more than 700 companies have closed down, and this number should be exceeded. Statistics show that more than 55% of catering businesses in China have resumed work, but compared to the same period last year, affected by the epidemic, 78% of catering companies have lost more than 100% of their operating income, and another 16% of them have lost over 70%. This year's sudden outbreak, the impact...

INTC stock forecast 2025: Intel's acquisition of SiFive

SiFive, a chip design start-up company based on the RISC-V instruction set architecture, has received an acquisition intention from investor Intel. A person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named, said that Intel has offered to buy SiFive for more than $2 billion. RISC-V with x86 and Arm As we all know, Intel dominates the industry leader in x86 architecture chip technology, while SiFive focuses on open-source RISC-V technology and employs several founding members of the RISC-V architecture. For a long time, the field of CPU instruction set architecture has been dominated by x86 and Arm. Since RISC-V was born at the University of California, Berkeley in 2010, it has gradually formed a certain competitive landscape with Arm after more than ten years of development. With the gradual refinement of the application field, the model of one chip making the world has become a thing of the past. Facing the hot AI and Internet of Things market, RISC-V i...

Disney stock forecast 2025: Is it time to buy now?

The much-watched Disney released its second quarter financial report this year. Benefiting from the strong recovery of theme parks and the rapid growth of streaming media business, its net profit and revenue both beat expectations. Disney's stock price rose 5% after the market. Let's take a look at the highlights of Disney's earnings this quarter. In the second quarter, Disney’s total revenue reached 17.02 billion US dollars, exceeding analysts’ expectations of 16.76 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 45.5%. Net profit turned from loss to profit, from a loss of US$4.721 billion last year to a profit of US$918 million. From the perspective of departmental business, Disney Parks, Experience and Products departments have brought a boost to the company's revenue. Since the economic restart, Disney's theme parks, cruise ships and offline merchandise retail businesses have all been greatly improved. The quarterly revenue of these bu...

Will China's economy recover as the epidemic is under control?

During the Chinese Spring Festival, novel coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, and the Chinese stock market was hit hard. Subsequently, the Chinese government quickly took strict measures to block Wuhan, a city with a population of tens of thousands of people, to prevent the further spread of the epidemic, and to take corresponding epidemic prevention measures in other cities. When the worst of the epidemic had already occurred, the Chinese stock market quickly rebounded. As the number of infections continues to decline, China's Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise further. Sars Period Looking back on similar events in the past, the SARS epidemic in 2003, the stock market also made a short-term decline, and then the SARS epidemic was brought under control, the stock market immediately went up for a long time. According to past historical data, the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the stock market may be short-lived. China Fund Capital Flow Howeve...

Three stages of bull and bear markets!

The bull and bear markets of the stock market are traditional indicators of the business cycle. As an investor, distinguishing bull and bear markets in the stock market and grasping the long-term development direction of the market can avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations and the impact of complex market information. For example, the market fluctuations brought by news information, the sudden and sharp drop in market prices, and the impact of investor sentiment have led to making wrong investment trading decisions. The stock market is in a bull market, most asset prices will continue to rise, and the stock market is in a bear market, most asset prices will continue to fall. Both bull and bear markets are divided into three stages, so how to tell whether the stock market is in a bull or bear market, and at what stage. S&P500 Index What is a bull market? In the first stage of the bull market, after the market economy was in recession, the stock price fe...

AMD stock forecast 2025: Q2 is expected to perform strongly

Before the US stock market on July 19, US technology stocks continued their decline last Friday, and AMD's stock price also continued to fall. AMD will announce the results of the second quarter of 2021 on July 27. The market expects this performance to be strong, so this round of decline may be a great opportunity to buy the stock. financial indicator Due to the strong market demand for CPU and graphics cards in 2021, AMD’s revenue is expected to exceed the maximum value of the financial guidance. AMD’s C&G business is expected to grow the most because higher-priced AMD Ryzen and high-end AMD Radeon sales continue to increase. In terms of gross profit margin, the market expects AMD's gross profit margin in Q2 2021 will increase by 47% year-on-year. If the average selling prices of CPUs and GPUs continue to rise in Q2 of 2021, and the ASPs of CPUs and GPUs will increase in Q1 of 2021, the gross profit margin may also increase by 48%. CPU market sh...

FinanceLinkway

Search This Blog