How to judge the market entry signal?

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Most people lose money when investing in stocks. One of the biggest reasons is that they buy stocks at the wrong time. Why did they buy the stock at the wrong time? Facts have proved that many people do not know that stocks only rise 1/4 times, and that is the easiest time to make money. And in another 3/4 of the time, making money is difficult, and losing money is easier. 

Today, I will share how to choose the right time to buy stocks. I hope you can see the final result because, in the end, I will share with you how to use simple technical indicators to help us find the exact input time.

First of all, everyone must know a concept, whether it is a stock market or a stock, there are four stages. Let us take the stock market as an example. The first stage is called the "next stage". 

At this time, the market has just experienced a sharp decline, and most investors in the market are not interested in the stock market, because their memories are still stuck in the previous collapse. In a painful moment, at the same time, most investors have sold stocks, and these stocks have fallen into the hands of the strongest investors willing to take risks. 

At this stage, the market has not risen sharply, and the decline has not been too large.

Since few people are willing to actively participate in the market, the most patient and powerful investors are also reluctant to sell their stocks at this time, resulting in a long period of random classification, called "bottoming." 

At a certain point in time, when the market conditions and environment are not imagined, some new savvy currencies will be put into the market, and the stock market will slowly rise from the bottom. At this time, it will enter the second phase: "Long-term "Rising stage. As new funds pushed the market up, market sentiment began to improve, thus attracting more and more people to the market. 

As more and more people participate, the stock market will rise further and attract more people to participate, forming an upward trend with a small increase in revenue.

However, when most people know that the stock market is rising, a large group of people puts money into the market, and then everything seems too obvious. The earliest savvy investors who enter the market tend to lock in profits and leave the market in the hottest atmosphere, but this time, because most people’s memories have not yet arrived, they still feel that it is time to make money, and he will use this opportunity to bargain. 

Those investors who entered the market later will also raise prices at this time, causing the market to rebound and rise again, but in fact, this time has entered the third stage:

The subsequent rise will make wise investors feel that the market is incorrect, and wise investors have no time to leave the market and take advantage of this opportunity. At this initial stage, the stock market will fluctuate, but the market is no longer the historical high of A. 

At some critical point, some unexpected bad news may appear in the market, which will trigger large-scale sales and will fall below some important Support level, causing more investors to leave the market or enter the market at the latest. Investors will also stop to leave the market.

At this time, market sentiment suddenly becomes pessimistic, and the stock market will enter the fourth stage: the long-term decline stage. During this period, it may sometimes rebound, thereby inducing some inexperienced investors to enter the market and become a fire.

 After the most extreme plunge, almost most people have sold the market, and most of the chips in the market have fallen into the hands of the most patient and powerful investors. At this point, the stock market will return to the first stage: the bottom stage.

In the past 100 years, most stock markets have been repeating the above cycle and continue to cycle. Next, in the stock part, the above four stages can also be applied to the cycle of a single stock, basically exceeding 100. 

Among the strong leading stocks of the year, stocks with the ability to rise at least 10 times to more than 100 times will pass the above four stages. If we are going to buy stocks, we should choose which stage to enter. 

I believe that you will not choose the third stage and the fourth stage, because the stocks in the third stage fluctuate greatly, which is easy to shock. The cut state will make you slapped left and right.

The fourth stage of stocks is the most dangerous. It is easy to make you buy more. You may feel that you have bought bargains from the beginning, but when you continue to bargain, you have lost 30%, 50%, or more, and you will start to fall into doubt, fear, and pain. 

Because you don’t even know if the stock market is falling or rising, the most likely cause is that when you panic and suffer a huge loss, you sell the stock to the lowest position, and the stock will rebound after some time, we should only choose The second stock. The stage enters the "rising stage".

The characteristics of stocks in the second stage are ups and downs. Whether you are a long-term, mid-line, or short-term investor, there is a great chance of winning in the end. One might think that the stock price in the first stage will be cheaper. 

And don’t forget that in the first stage, we never know when it will enter the second stage, so we can only wait in silence, you may have to wait for months or even a year, the purchased stock is still not when you see other When a stock rises sharply, you can easily lose patience and wait for it to rise before leaving the market, or, do you think that the first stage is only half of the fourth stage? 

Have you not started yet? In some cases, the volatility of the first stage may also cause you to lose a lot. Therefore, when there are many uncertainties, we should not enter the first stage. We must choose one. Until the time of the upward trend.

Here, the next question is, what objective criteria can we use to know that inventory is in the second stage? First, I want to introduce a god-level trader Stan Weinstein. In his classic work, he proposed that the 30-week moving average can be used to identify the second stage of stocks. Here are the three methods I summarized:

First, the bottoming process is half a year to a year, and the volatility during this period narrows and the trading volume preferably decreases.

Second, the bottom appears in the form of head and shoulder bottoms, double bottoms, triple bottoms, or round bottoms.

Third, the 30-week moving average must rise.