Skip to main content

How to judge the market entry signal?

buy sell


Most people lose money when investing in stocks. One of the biggest reasons is that they buy stocks at the wrong time. Why did they buy the stock at the wrong time? Facts have proved that many people do not know that stocks only rise 1/4 times, and that is the easiest time to make money. And in another 3/4 of the time, making money is difficult, and losing money is easier. 

Today, I will share how to choose the right time to buy stocks. I hope you can see the final result because, in the end, I will share with you how to use simple technical indicators to help us find the exact input time.

First of all, everyone must know a concept, whether it is a stock market or a stock, there are four stages. Let us take the stock market as an example. The first stage is called the "next stage". 

At this time, the market has just experienced a sharp decline, and most investors in the market are not interested in the stock market, because their memories are still stuck in the previous collapse. In a painful moment, at the same time, most investors have sold stocks, and these stocks have fallen into the hands of the strongest investors willing to take risks. 

At this stage, the market has not risen sharply, and the decline has not been too large.

Since few people are willing to actively participate in the market, the most patient and powerful investors are also reluctant to sell their stocks at this time, resulting in a long period of random classification, called "bottoming." 

At a certain point in time, when the market conditions and environment are not imagined, some new savvy currencies will be put into the market, and the stock market will slowly rise from the bottom. At this time, it will enter the second phase: "Long-term "Rising stage. As new funds pushed the market up, market sentiment began to improve, thus attracting more and more people to the market. 

As more and more people participate, the stock market will rise further and attract more people to participate, forming an upward trend with a small increase in revenue.

However, when most people know that the stock market is rising, a large group of people puts money into the market, and then everything seems too obvious. The earliest savvy investors who enter the market tend to lock in profits and leave the market in the hottest atmosphere, but this time, because most people’s memories have not yet arrived, they still feel that it is time to make money, and he will use this opportunity to bargain. 

Those investors who entered the market later will also raise prices at this time, causing the market to rebound and rise again, but in fact, this time has entered the third stage:

The subsequent rise will make wise investors feel that the market is incorrect, and wise investors have no time to leave the market and take advantage of this opportunity. At this initial stage, the stock market will fluctuate, but the market is no longer the historical high of A. 

At some critical point, some unexpected bad news may appear in the market, which will trigger large-scale sales and will fall below some important Support level, causing more investors to leave the market or enter the market at the latest. Investors will also stop to leave the market.

At this time, market sentiment suddenly becomes pessimistic, and the stock market will enter the fourth stage: the long-term decline stage. During this period, it may sometimes rebound, thereby inducing some inexperienced investors to enter the market and become a fire.

 After the most extreme plunge, almost most people have sold the market, and most of the chips in the market have fallen into the hands of the most patient and powerful investors. At this point, the stock market will return to the first stage: the bottom stage.

In the past 100 years, most stock markets have been repeating the above cycle and continue to cycle. Next, in the stock part, the above four stages can also be applied to the cycle of a single stock, basically exceeding 100. 

Among the strong leading stocks of the year, stocks with the ability to rise at least 10 times to more than 100 times will pass the above four stages. If we are going to buy stocks, we should choose which stage to enter. 

I believe that you will not choose the third stage and the fourth stage, because the stocks in the third stage fluctuate greatly, which is easy to shock. The cut state will make you slapped left and right.

The fourth stage of stocks is the most dangerous. It is easy to make you buy more. You may feel that you have bought bargains from the beginning, but when you continue to bargain, you have lost 30%, 50%, or more, and you will start to fall into doubt, fear, and pain. 

Because you don’t even know if the stock market is falling or rising, the most likely cause is that when you panic and suffer a huge loss, you sell the stock to the lowest position, and the stock will rebound after some time, we should only choose The second stock. The stage enters the "rising stage".

The characteristics of stocks in the second stage are ups and downs. Whether you are a long-term, mid-line, or short-term investor, there is a great chance of winning in the end. One might think that the stock price in the first stage will be cheaper. 

And don’t forget that in the first stage, we never know when it will enter the second stage, so we can only wait in silence, you may have to wait for months or even a year, the purchased stock is still not when you see other When a stock rises sharply, you can easily lose patience and wait for it to rise before leaving the market, or, do you think that the first stage is only half of the fourth stage? 

Have you not started yet? In some cases, the volatility of the first stage may also cause you to lose a lot. Therefore, when there are many uncertainties, we should not enter the first stage. We must choose one. Until the time of the upward trend.

Here, the next question is, what objective criteria can we use to know that inventory is in the second stage? First, I want to introduce a god-level trader Stan Weinstein. In his classic work, he proposed that the 30-week moving average can be used to identify the second stage of stocks. Here are the three methods I summarized:

First, the bottoming process is half a year to a year, and the volatility during this period narrows and the trading volume preferably decreases.

Second, the bottom appears in the form of head and shoulder bottoms, double bottoms, triple bottoms, or round bottoms.

Third, the 30-week moving average must rise.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Will China's economy recover as the epidemic is under control?

During the Chinese Spring Festival, novel coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, and the Chinese stock market was hit hard. Subsequently, the Chinese government quickly took strict measures to block Wuhan, a city with a population of tens of thousands of people, to prevent the further spread of the epidemic, and to take corresponding epidemic prevention measures in other cities.  When the worst of the epidemic had already occurred, the Chinese stock market quickly rebounded. As the number of infections continues to decline, China's Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise further. Sars Period Looking back on similar events in the past, the SARS epidemic in 2003, the stock market also made a short-term decline, and then the SARS epidemic was brought under control, the stock market immediately went up for a long time. According to past historical data, the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the stock market may be short-lived. China Fund Capital Flow Howeve...

Three stages of bull and bear markets!

The bull and bear markets of the stock market are traditional indicators of the business cycle. As an investor, distinguishing bull and bear markets in the stock market and grasping the long-term development direction of the market can avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations and the impact of complex market information.  For example, the market fluctuations brought by news information, the sudden and sharp drop in market prices, and the impact of investor sentiment have led to making wrong investment trading decisions. The stock market is in a bull market, most asset prices will continue to rise, and the stock market is in a bear market, most asset prices will continue to fall. Both bull and bear markets are divided into three stages, so how to tell whether the stock market is in a bull or bear market, and at what stage. S&P500 Index What is a bull market? In the first stage of the bull market, after the market economy was in recession, the stock price fe...

AMD stock forecast 2025: Q2 is expected to perform strongly

Before the US stock market on July 19, US technology stocks continued their decline last Friday, and AMD's stock price also continued to fall.  AMD will announce the results of the second quarter of 2021 on July 27. The market expects this performance to be strong, so this round of decline may be a great opportunity to buy the stock.  financial indicator  Due to the strong market demand for CPU and graphics cards in 2021, AMD’s revenue is expected to exceed the maximum value of the financial guidance. AMD’s C&G business is expected to grow the most because higher-priced AMD Ryzen and high-end AMD Radeon sales continue to increase.  In terms of gross profit margin, the market expects AMD's gross profit margin in Q2 2021 will increase by 47% year-on-year.  If the average selling prices of CPUs and GPUs continue to rise in Q2 of 2021, and the ASPs of CPUs and GPUs will increase in Q1 of 2021, the gross profit margin may also increase by 48%.  CPU market sh...

Teladoc stock forecast 2025: Is it time to buy TDOC?

 TDOC's performance exceeded expectations. Why did the performance decline after the announcement?  Teladoc (TDOC) reported quarterly earnings of US$0.13 per share, which exceeded the consensus estimate of a loss of US$0.57 per share. In the same period last year, it had a loss of US$0.4 per share.  The earnings of this financial report far exceeded expectations.  In the last quarter, people expected this telemedicine service company to lose 0.25 US dollars per share, but the actual loss per share was 0.27 US dollars, which was not as good as expected at the time.  In the past four quarters, TDOC exceeded expectations twice.  The management stated that the company's current momentum in various channels and regions should not be underestimated in the conference call. It has raised its annual revenue guidance to 20 million U.S. dollars, which is expected to be between 1.97 billion and 2.02 billion U.S. dollars.    In the first quarter, the comp...

Shopify stock forecast 2025:Is it worth buying?

  In the last year, the stocks rose relatively well. Another sector is e-commerce. Whether it is Amazon, Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, SEA or vertical e-commerce platforms Etsy and Chewy, all of them have experienced huge gains, while another category has benefited from the e-commerce sector.  The company is a website building tool company such as Shopify BigCommerce Holdings. Today I will talk about shopify, the leader of website building tools.  First, let's briefly talk about shopify's business model. To put it simply, shopify is a fool-like website building platform. In the past, when a company wanted to build a corporate website, it generally needed to find a dedicated person to design and maintain the website.  If you want to add shopping functions to the website, the cost of building the website will also increase. This is true for many small businesses and individual businesses.   A very difficult thing. Shopify uses the SAAS model to provide websit...

Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high. The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range. The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said...

Why has international oil(USO) prices plummeted?

As OPEC and Russia failed in negotiations and could not reach an agreement to reduce production, Saudi Arabia issued a comprehensive production increase announcement. Russia followed Saudi Arabia to increase production.  Due to the sharp increase in oil supply, international oil prices plummeted, and US stocks were affected by the spread of the epidemic, and international oil prices The plunge, the U.S. stock market plummeted, triggering multiple fuses. S&P500 Index Oil is a commodity whose price is affected by supply and demand. When oil production increases, supply increases, prices fall, and at the same time affected by the epidemic, demand decreases, and prices also fall. Oil supply increases and demand decreases, which is the main cause of the plunge in international oil prices. In terms of oil supply, since the United States developed shale oil, US oil production has become the world's largest. The production cost of shale oil is more than US $ 40, which is the ...

Palantir stock forecast 2025: What kind of company is PLTR?

 PLTR introduced today may be the most controversial company in the current market, not one of them.  As a stock, he is the faith stock of many retail investors. Those who believe in it generally believe that its stock price can double at least ten times in the future.  Catherine Wood, the president of the ARK Fund, nicknamed "the light of retail investors," continues to buy the stock, which is also highly sought after on the WSB forum; on the contrary, most analysts on Wall Street are not optimistic about its development.  The average target price at the end of 2021 is still 10% lower than the current stock price.  As a company, its revenue is growing steadily and rapidly, with an annual growth rate of about 30% per year. However, the company has never achieved profitability in the past 20 years since its establishment.  As a high-tech enterprise, the company is full of various genius ideas and the top talents in the industry, but they are mostly engaged i...

TSM Stock Forecast and Price Target 2021

Today, I will analyze TSMC stocks in-depth with you. In the semiconductor sector, TSMC has always been my most promising stock. TSMC has just announced its results for the fourth quarter of 2020. At the same time, there are new developments in the entire chip industry recently. Therefore, today I will combine the financial report and chips. The latest developments in the industry to analyze the trend of TSMC stocks, First of all, we analyze TSMC’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 financial reports to see what are the key points worthy of investors’ attention. First, TSMC’s fourth-quarter revenue and profitability are very good.  Compared with the outlook for Q4 in Q3, the outlook at that time was US$12.4-12.7 billion, and the actual revenue was US$12.68 billion. Actual revenue As the upper limit of the outlook, the gross profit margin outlook is 51.5%-53.5%, while the actual gross profit margin is 54%, which is better than the outlook. The operating net profit margin is expected t...

NIO stock forecast 2025: 2021 Q1 report analysis

 April 30, NIO announced the first quarter of the 2021 financial report.  Revenue reached 7.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 481.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 20.2%; gross profit was 1.5548 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 36.2%, and last year was -167.5 million yuan; a net loss of 350 million yuan was significantly narrowed year-on-year and month-on-month.  Various indicators show that NIO's performance in the first quarter of this year is very impressive.  Gross profit margin exceeds 20% for the first time  NIO’s Q1 car sales were 7.40058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 489.8% and a month-on-month increase of 20.0%.  The gross profit margin of automobile sales was 21.2%, exceeding 20% ​​for the first time, a significant increase from -7.4% in Q1 of 2020 and 17.2% in Q4 of 2020.  In addition, Weilai's Q1 comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 will also reach 19.5%.  The founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO sai...