When did the economic bubble burst?

the economic bubble

In addition to the recent ups and downs in the stock market, a lot of things have happened in the financial sector, including a series of bail-out measures including major central banks, the liquidity test of the bond market, and even more, terrible data show that even Wall Street hedge funds, everyone Confused about the current situation.
The bubble-filled world of financial assets has triggered a domino effect. The Fed experienced a repurchase that began in September 2019. After a shortage of market funds, it has been printing money to save the market. The crazy bailout should be temporary. Until February 14, 2020, the Fed issued a statement saying that it will gradually reduce the bailout to the repo market from 120 billion to 100 billion per day, and will seize the market for 14 days of repurchase from 30 billion to 20 billion. This move may bring liquidity pressure to the market. In turn, it will cause turbulence in the stock market, I did not expect this day to be so fast!

In the single-day repurchase market on March 4, 2020, the Fed provided 100 billion US dollars of bailout funds, which is not enough. The main institutions have applied for 111.4 billion loans in the repurchase market! And in the 14-day repurchase market on March 5, 2020, the Fed provided 20 billion liquidity as planned to save the market, and major institutions applied for 72.5 billion loans. In other words, the number of liquidity applications, which is 3.6 times the amount of Federal Reserve assistance. By the way, the repo market requires a lot of liquidity from the Fed, which is very unusual in itself. Not to mention that the market is still short after bailouts. It started as early as February 25, 2020, so the Fed decided to lower the interest rate by 0.5%. Not only are there more ways to stimulate the economy and reduce liquidity pressures in the repo market, but the problem is that the shortage of funds in the repo market is not because banks have no money, and they dare not invest in the repo market.

Therefore, the impact of emergency interest rate cuts on this shortage of funds is the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that the Federal Reserve united the Central Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada to jointly reduce interest rates. After the interest rate cut, the stock market reacted like this, because the emergency interest rate cut was different from 2008. The financial crisis in 2008 was to deal with bad debts and low-quality loans. This time, the emergency interest rate cut must be dealt with, from the supply chain to the supply chain. Two-way destruction.

JP Morgan’s latest global index report shows that the manufacturing index and the service industry index plummeted in February 2020 to the lowest point since the financial crisis in May 2009. The decline was the second-highest in history, and the first high point was in After the events of September 11, 2001, although the impact of the current event on global GDP has not yet appeared. However, compared with the composite index, GDP is usually delayed. If the composite index continues to fall, the impact of this event on GDP is obvious. And this 0.5% emergency interest rate cut cannot motivate people to get rid of the fear of spending and cannot solve the supply chain problem.

The Fed and major central banks have shown the true severity of the incident. The few Fed and Bank of Canada in history have lowered interest rates by more than 0.5% in the same month. What followed was the global financial crisis. Will this be a repeat of history? Has the economic bubble burst?

Comments

7 great investors' operating strategies to deal with the stock!

No one can be 100% sure about the outlook for the US stock market. Instead of entangled in whether the bull market in US stocks will end, it is better to think about what lessons can be learned from this plunge. Historically, due to the end of the summer market in September, U.S. stocks did not perform well. The plunge on Thursday sounded like a wake-up call for investors earlier. Be careful next week. Although Nasdaq is tolerant of faults The rate is high, but the up-and-down shock pattern has not changed, and there needs to be an established process. Investing in stocks should take a long-term view, have a long-term investment mentality, don't care too much about the rise and fall of one or two days, and don't feel unhappy because of the turmoil of the stock market, which affects the judgment of stock buying and selling. Today, let's take a look at how those familiar investment masters are invincible. The reason why masters become masters is that they have become masters ...

Will China's economy recover as the epidemic is under control?

During the Chinese Spring Festival, novel coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, and the Chinese stock market was hit hard. Subsequently, the Chinese government quickly took strict measures to block Wuhan, a city with a population of tens of thousands of people, to prevent the further spread of the epidemic, and to take corresponding epidemic prevention measures in other cities. When the worst of the epidemic had already occurred, the Chinese stock market quickly rebounded. As the number of infections continues to decline, China's Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise further. Sars Period Looking back on similar events in the past, the SARS epidemic in 2003, the stock market also made a short-term decline, and then the SARS epidemic was brought under control, the stock market immediately went up for a long time. According to past historical data, the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the stock market may be short-lived. China Fund Capital Flow Howeve...

FNKO VS PLBY: Which NFT stock is more attractive for investment?

The market for NFT stocks is recently booming, and investors have begun to show strong interest in NFT stocks. NFT is a digital asset created using blockchain encryption technology, such as works of art, music or video, etc. Each NFT has a unique digital signature to determine its unique attributes, making it difficult for NFTs to exchange with each other. NFT provides a unique way for content creators to earn income by paying copyright fees or selling their artworks directly to consumers. According to data provided by Forbes Advisor, since November 2017, nearly $174 million has been used for NFT transactions. On May 12, Eastern Time, eBay (EBAY.US) added NFT to its online shopping mall product list. Funko (FNKO.US) and PLBY Group (PLBY.US) recently had the most popular NFT concept stocks, which stock is more attractive for investment? Let's look at what Wall Street analysts think of these two stocks. Funko is a pop culture consumer goods company who...

VRTX stock forecast 2025: Vertex is undervalued

Let's look at some biotech companies with stable cash flow and currently undervalued value stocks as targets for diversified portfolios. The company I shared today, called Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), is dedicated to the development of rare diseases, especially Cystic Fibrosis (CF). I have always had high respect for the rare disease group of pharmaceutical companies in the disease category. In addition, in the future, gene and cell therapies are subverting the role of rare diseases in the pharmaceutical industry, making rare diseases no longer uncommon. It's tasteless, but a field full of the future. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. was established in 1989 by Joshua Boger and Kevin Kinsella. is headquartered in Boston. At that time, several very good research and development companies were established in the United States, including the aforementioned Regeneron, Gilead, and today's Vertex. Vertex In the past, he devoted himself to the development of small molecule drugs, wh...

Three stages of bull and bear markets!

The bull and bear markets of the stock market are traditional indicators of the business cycle. As an investor, distinguishing bull and bear markets in the stock market and grasping the long-term development direction of the market can avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations and the impact of complex market information. For example, the market fluctuations brought by news information, the sudden and sharp drop in market prices, and the impact of investor sentiment have led to making wrong investment trading decisions. The stock market is in a bull market, most asset prices will continue to rise, and the stock market is in a bear market, most asset prices will continue to fall. Both bull and bear markets are divided into three stages, so how to tell whether the stock market is in a bull or bear market, and at what stage. S&P500 Index What is a bull market? In the first stage of the bull market, after the market economy was in recession, the stock price fe...

AMD stock forecast 2025: Q2 is expected to perform strongly

Before the US stock market on July 19, US technology stocks continued their decline last Friday, and AMD's stock price also continued to fall. AMD will announce the results of the second quarter of 2021 on July 27. The market expects this performance to be strong, so this round of decline may be a great opportunity to buy the stock. financial indicator Due to the strong market demand for CPU and graphics cards in 2021, AMD’s revenue is expected to exceed the maximum value of the financial guidance. AMD’s C&G business is expected to grow the most because higher-priced AMD Ryzen and high-end AMD Radeon sales continue to increase. In terms of gross profit margin, the market expects AMD's gross profit margin in Q2 2021 will increase by 47% year-on-year. If the average selling prices of CPUs and GPUs continue to rise in Q2 of 2021, and the ASPs of CPUs and GPUs will increase in Q1 of 2021, the gross profit margin may also increase by 48%. CPU market sh...

Teladoc stock forecast 2025: Is it time to buy TDOC?

TDOC's performance exceeded expectations. Why did the performance decline after the announcement? Teladoc (TDOC) reported quarterly earnings of US$0.13 per share, which exceeded the consensus estimate of a loss of US$0.57 per share. In the same period last year, it had a loss of US$0.4 per share. The earnings of this financial report far exceeded expectations. In the last quarter, people expected this telemedicine service company to lose 0.25 US dollars per share, but the actual loss per share was 0.27 US dollars, which was not as good as expected at the time. In the past four quarters, TDOC exceeded expectations twice. The management stated that the company's current momentum in various channels and regions should not be underestimated in the conference call. It has raised its annual revenue guidance to 20 million U.S. dollars, which is expected to be between 1.97 billion and 2.02 billion U.S. dollars. In the first quarter, the comp...

Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high. The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range. The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said...

Bear market coming, gold(GLD) assets become essential

The economic data of the global economic powers have been deteriorating, entering the bear market stage of the economy, and people have become more cautious when choosing asset investment. We should choose investment products with a low correlation coefficient with economic performance and investment products suitable for the current economic cycle. Investors should pay more attention to foreign exchange and commodity markets so that they can add value to your assets. Among many assets, anti-inflation commodities such as gold have become essential assets. Take gold as an example. For many years, gold has been regarded as an anti-inflation commodity by international capital markets and has been regarded as an important asset hedging tool by investors. There is also a saying, "The world bought gold during turbulent times." From basic political theory, we know that gold is not currency, and the currency is naturally gold and silver. Although gold has withdrawn from ...

Why has international oil(USO) prices plummeted?

As OPEC and Russia failed in negotiations and could not reach an agreement to reduce production, Saudi Arabia issued a comprehensive production increase announcement. Russia followed Saudi Arabia to increase production. Due to the sharp increase in oil supply, international oil prices plummeted, and US stocks were affected by the spread of the epidemic, and international oil prices The plunge, the U.S. stock market plummeted, triggering multiple fuses. S&P500 Index Oil is a commodity whose price is affected by supply and demand. When oil production increases, supply increases, prices fall, and at the same time affected by the epidemic, demand decreases, and prices also fall. Oil supply increases and demand decreases, which is the main cause of the plunge in international oil prices. In terms of oil supply, since the United States developed shale oil, US oil production has become the world's largest. The production cost of shale oil is more than US $ 40, which is the ...

FinanceLinkway

Search This Blog