Gold(GLD) and crude oil(USO) plunge and lose their value?

Recently, the stock market has experienced ups and downs. During the financial crisis, gold, bonds, and even bitcoin, which have been regarded as value-preserving, have depreciated. Can't help but make many investors confused, why is it like this?

gold

Gold On February 24, due to the stock market crash, a large number of institutions sold gold to make up for the losses of these institutions in the stock market and to increase margin. The price of gold resumed its rise in early March and then fell to a lower level again on March 9. Many investors were confused. Should n’t gold be a hedge? Should n’t gold and the stock market rise in the opposite direction? All of this has nothing to do with the shortage of funds in the repo market.

The Fed ’s bailout ceiling is far from enough, and then the Fed issued an emergency statement on March 12. "Starting on March 12, 500 billion bailouts will be provided. Tomorrow the Fed will provide another 500 billion three-month repurchase loans and 500 billion one-month repurchase loans. In the remaining three months, each week will provide a total of 1 trillion bailout funds. "I do n’t know if you are stunned by this pile of numbers. In other words, the Fed will provide a total of $ 1.125 trillion in bailout funds every week. Some friends may say that the repurchase of market loans needs to be repaid and cannot be accumulated like this, but let us consider that this week ’s 1.125 trillion loans, most of the long-term repurchase loans have a term of 1 month and 3 months. In other words, at least until April 13, the Fed will not receive any refunds.

Before all the bailouts, is this just bare money, and then the huge bailouts in the repurchase market have anything to do with the depreciation of gold we see? Not just gold, but many other financial products that should be kept. Like Bitcoin, it fell from the US $ 12,000 to the US $ 7,000. Low-risk corporate bonds, plus 10 years of the national debt, interest rates both soared. All of this is because, even though the Fed provides a lot of liquidity to solve the shortage of funds, the problem is that all these institutions go to buy back market loans and need to provide collateral. The problem in the market now is that although the Fed provides liquidity, everyone has no collateral! Therefore, when many institutions need a lot of liquidity, many institutions have the problem of lacking original repo collateral. If there is no collateral, even if the repo market is rich, they will not borrow it! This has led various institutions to start selling their gold, 10-year Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, and even bitcoin. After cash, they will use cash to buy Treasury bills.

crude oil

After analyzing the reasons for the depreciation of gold and other value-preserving financial assets, let's take a look at the latest situation of crude oil. The price of crude oil plunged by 24% on March 8, 2020, making it the worst day since 1991. This incident came from cruise ships around the world, and airlines began to stop operating. Therefore, global crude oil consumption has been greatly reduced. If demand is low and supply remains unchanged, then crude oil prices will be greatly reduced. Therefore, OPEC, headed by Saudi Arabia, negotiated with Russia, another major oil producer.

What Saudi Arabia means is that demand is very low now. Let us reduce production together. This prevents prices from falling. The problem is that oil and natural gas account for 30% of Russia ’s GDP. Of course, Russia is not willing to reduce production. This not only lowered the price of crude oil, but also issued a statement saying that it would substantially increase crude oil production, and crude oil fell directly to $ 33 per barrel. As a result, Trump saw an opportunity. Many countries have internal oil reserves. To prevent certain major disasters from disrupting the supply of crude oil, the U.S. oil reserves may reach 727 million barrels. The U.S. oil reserves are sufficient. On March 13, 2020, Trang Pu also ordered that the current crude oil prices are really good and the United States will replenish its oil reserves. In other words, 90 million barrels of crude oil will be purchased. With this order, the price of crude oil rebounded by 5%. Trump bought a lot of crude oil at a low price. In addition to stabilizing crude oil prices, it is estimated that political factors will not decrease. Then Saudi Arabia and Russia will We will wait and see what kind of turbulence it will bring to the crude oil market.

Comments

Why has international oil(USO) prices plummeted?

As OPEC and Russia failed in negotiations and could not reach an agreement to reduce production, Saudi Arabia issued a comprehensive production increase announcement. Russia followed Saudi Arabia to increase production. Due to the sharp increase in oil supply, international oil prices plummeted, and US stocks were affected by the spread of the epidemic, and international oil prices The plunge, the U.S. stock market plummeted, triggering multiple fuses. S&P500 Index Oil is a commodity whose price is affected by supply and demand. When oil production increases, supply increases, prices fall, and at the same time affected by the epidemic, demand decreases, and prices also fall. Oil supply increases and demand decreases, which is the main cause of the plunge in international oil prices. In terms of oil supply, since the United States developed shale oil, US oil production has become the world's largest. The production cost of shale oil is more than US $ 40, which is the ...

Palantir stock forecast 2025: What kind of company is PLTR?

PLTR introduced today may be the most controversial company in the current market, not one of them. As a stock, he is the faith stock of many retail investors. Those who believe in it generally believe that its stock price can double at least ten times in the future. Catherine Wood, the president of the ARK Fund, nicknamed "the light of retail investors," continues to buy the stock, which is also highly sought after on the WSB forum; on the contrary, most analysts on Wall Street are not optimistic about its development. The average target price at the end of 2021 is still 10% lower than the current stock price. As a company, its revenue is growing steadily and rapidly, with an annual growth rate of about 30% per year. However, the company has never achieved profitability in the past 20 years since its establishment. As a high-tech enterprise, the company is full of various genius ideas and the top talents in the industry, but they are mostly engaged i...

Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high. The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range. The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said...

Cloudflare's 4Q 2021 earnings report

Just took a look at Cloudflare's (NET) 4Q 2021 earnings report. Cloudflare is in an area that covers several hot spots, including content delivery networks, i.e. CDNs, cloud computing, and cybersecurity. For the Cloudflare quarterly report, here is a summary: 1) Revenue of $194 million (then expected 4Q revenue in the range of $184 to $185 million), up 52% year-over-year ($172 million in 2021, up 51% year-over-year). 2) The number of customers continues to grow rapidly, with the total number of customers has reached 1416 (1260 in the previous quarter). 3) Non-GAAP gross margin was 79.2% vs. 78.1% in the same quarter last year (vs. 79.2% in 3Q vs. 77.3% in the same quarter last year.) Non-GAAP net income has started to turn around, meaning it has started to be profitable. 4) Revenue is expected to be in the range of $205 to $206 million in 4Q. That works out to about 6% YoY growth. Cloudflare had good results this time, beating its previous guidance. Revenues are still growing at a...

NIO stock forecast 2025: Core technologies

In terms of new forces in car manufacturing, industry participants have entered the fast lane in areas such as new product releases and intelligent driving. With the "general trend" of the popularization of electric vehicles, you will catch up. For NIO, which is the first to deploy the electric vehicle industry, whether ET7 can take the industry pioneer into the "overtaking lane" and continue to be at the forefront of the industry. Examining NIO's strategic measures is an effective way to try to find answers. Way, especially in the context of the “general trend” of electric vehicles. NIO's Core technologies: 1. At present and for a period of time, the price, performance iteration, and supply of batteries and core raw materials will be the core factors that determine the popularization of pure electric vehicles, and determine a series of trends in the market and participants. Lithium is an indispensable and important element of power batteries. The comme...

The era of negative US interest rates coming?

Recently, the US Federal Reserve suddenly cut interest rates and US stocks fell sharply. Most investors believe that the ten-year bull market for US stocks has ended. In terms of the US dollar index, after a period of decline, the US dollar index rebounded sharply, indicating that risk aversion was high, and market funds were flowing to the US dollar to hedge. The Fed ’s interest rate cuts have not saved the US stock market. The Fed ’s interest rates are now very low. If the Fed continues to cut interest rates in the future, the United States will soon enter the era of negative interest rates. Take Europe and Japan as examples. Negative interest rates have not restored the country ’s economy. The future economic situation of the United States is not optimistic. The reason for the negative interest rate is that the investment must be profitable, otherwise, it will not be invested. If the profit is low or loss, the investor will directly deposit the profit to the bank. When socia...

How to judge the market entry signal?

buy sell Most people lose money when investing in stocks. One of the biggest reasons is that they buy stocks at the wrong time. Why did they buy the stock at the wrong time? Facts have proved that many people do not know that stocks only rise 1/4 times, and that is the easiest time to make money. And in another 3/4 of the time, making money is difficult, and losing money is easier. Today, I will share how to choose the right time to buy stocks. I hope you can see the final result because, in the end, I will share with you how to use simple technical indicators to help us find the exact input time. First of all, everyone must know a concept, whether it is a stock market or a stock, there are four stages. Let us take the stock market as an example. The first stage is called the "next stage". At this time, the market has just experienced a sharp decline, and most investors in the market are not interested in the stock market, because their memories are still stuck in t...

Safe-haven assets（GLD） are flowing into the market?

On March 9, 2020, the US Dow Jones Index plunged more than 2,000 points, the U.S. stock market crashed, the investment market was full of fear, and market funds flowed into those safe-haven assets? With the spread of the epidemic, the market's risk aversion has continued to increase, and the stock market has continued to fall. As an investor, to reduce investment risks, you must buy safe-haven assets, reduce the purchase or sale of assets in the stock market, and avoid a sharp decline in the stock market, which will cause serious losses. When market risks continue to increase, investors will continue to buy safe-haven assets. Investors should pay attention to the following several safe-haven assets and use them as safe-havens. Dow Jones Index The first safe-haven asset is gold. Gold（GLD）, as a traditional anti-inflation commodity, has always been the preferred safe-haven asset for investors. GLD The second safe-haven asset is the Japanese yen. Because the Japanese y...

The five stages of company growth!

company Many people who study stocks will analyze the fundamentals of the stock, such as viewing its performance report, PE, PB, PEG, debt ratio, dividend ratio, cash flow, ROE, EPS growth, etc. I don't know if you tried it. After performing many basic analyses, you will feel that the prospects for a particular stock are very good. You have even read the analysis reports of many large banks, or listened to the analysis of many market participants and obtained a consistent high evaluation. Then, you will think that this stock will grow in the future, so you buy it and think that you can use this stock to create a better future from now on, and the final development of the story is the opposite of the fact that the development direction will eventually Put you in trouble or lose money. I will not deny the importance of basic analysis, because, in addition to focusing on technical analysis, I am also very concerned about the company's basic factors. I am an investor fo...

The thinking of value investing

value investing The epidemic continues to spread, the population of new crown infections keeps growing, and the world's economy is facing a huge cold winter. During this period, the death of black people in the United States even changed from anti-epidemic to protest, and economic and social life has always been difficult to return to the right track. But what is surprising is that the US Nasdaq index has gone out of the V-shaped reversal in just over two months, hitting a record high. Looking at the record, some customers left the market in the stage of the world epic plunge in mid-March, and recently reluctantly added the position back, the difference between the previous one and the next 10-15%, this is almost a return The average return of a good fund manager in a year. Sometimes, we always take a look at ourselves, thinking that we can sell high and sell low to make a difference, and even straighten the stock index line, but in the end, it is a fierce operation, al...

FinanceLinkway

Search This Blog