Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression

On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high.

The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range.

The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said that this data is close to the record, 5 times the highest record since the historical record, almost equivalent to 2% of the US working population.

In March 2009, at the time of the financial tsunami, the first data for unemployment benefits was 665,000. It was also in October 1982, when it was the crisis in Latin America, setting a historical record of 695,000. In other words, the highest historical record is 695,000, 3.28 million divided by 695,000, which may be close to 5 times. In the next few weeks, the unemployed population in the United States may exceed 10 million, which is no exaggeration.

When the Great Depression was the worst in 1929, the unemployment rate in the United States reached 25%, which is a very serious unemployment rate. In other words, a quarter of people are unemployed but have not yet reached this level. A consulting report from the United States shows that in the next few weeks, 23 million people may be unemployed at any time in the United States, accounting for 15% of the country's total employed population.

Over the past 30 to 40 years, the United States has undergone this global economic transformation, including industrial chain outsourcing and industrial transfer. Its economy is already very dependent on this service industry, and the service industry accounts for a high proportion of the economy. The added value of the service industry reached US$15 trillion. In 2019, the total GDP of the United States is 21 trillion US dollars, and the service industry accounts for about 80%. In fact, in the United States, many types of work are calculated on an hourly basis, that is, hourly rates are paid by the hour. Then, some people not only have to work one job, or even two jobs to ensure a normal life. Affected by the epidemic this time, a large number of retailers, restaurants, hotels, and other hourly workers disappeared and were greatly affected.

It can be said that this is the part that bears the brunt, because the service industry is the pillar industry of the United States, and the purchasing manager's index of the service industry has also dropped by 10.3 compared with last month. 39.1. This indicator can be said to be the lowest level since October 2009. The unemployment data in the United States is very transparent, and the data is updated very quickly. The United States has just launched a $2 trillion stimulus plan. Under this bill, the US government will provide $1,200 in cash for each adult.

What are the benefits of this series of policies? The biggest benefit of this stimulus policy is not necessarily the ability to save the economy, but it can win time, enterprises can survive, SMEs can be saved, and employment can be saved. This is the current employment and unemployment situation in the United States. It's really serious. This can also be said to be the most severe employment situation since the Great Depression of 1929.

Comments

Capital Flows Tracking Weekly

Release: January 27, 2021 The weekly Capital Flows estimate the industry's total, based on the report covering more than 98% of mutual fund and ETF assets. Collect actual mutual fund net new cash flows and ETF net issuance together monthly; therefore, there is a discrepancy between these weekly estimates and monthly flows. The data from the previous few weeks reflect revisions due to data adjustments, reclassifications, and changes in the number of fund reports. Mutual fund data represents the estimated value of net new cash flows, that is, new sales minus redemptions plus net exchanges, while exchange-traded fund (ETF) data represents net issuance, that is, net issuance minus total Redemption amount. This series does not include data on mutual funds that primarily invest in other mutual funds and ETFs that primarily invest in other ETFs.

INTC stock forecast 2025: Intel's acquisition of SiFive

SiFive, a chip design start-up company based on the RISC-V instruction set architecture, has received an acquisition intention from investor Intel. A person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named, said that Intel has offered to buy SiFive for more than $2 billion. RISC-V with x86 and Arm As we all know, Intel dominates the industry leader in x86 architecture chip technology, while SiFive focuses on open-source RISC-V technology and employs several founding members of the RISC-V architecture. For a long time, the field of CPU instruction set architecture has been dominated by x86 and Arm. Since RISC-V was born at the University of California, Berkeley in 2010, it has gradually formed a certain competitive landscape with Arm after more than ten years of development. With the gradual refinement of the application field, the model of one chip making the world has become a thing of the past. Facing the hot AI and Internet of Things market, RISC-V i...

Look for growth stocks, and let profits run!

let profits run Due to the recent rapid decline in the global stock market, many investors have suffered severe losses in the books they hold. How much money has been lost? What should I do now? Should the stock be sold immediately? Or wait for it to rebound before selling? I usually ask him, why would you buy stocks? Why do you still hold stocks? Sometimes they will tell me very frankly, because after listening to XX masters, XX experts, XX financial performances, or a friend, a relative, or a neighbor telling them, the stock price is very cheap now, so fast Click to buy, or after the stock has fallen for some time, these people will say that the current stock price is cheaper, and it should be evened down, and it will go up no matter what. If you are holding a lot of stocks in the stock market disaster because of this, you have already suffered heavy losses at this moment. I hope this is the last time you are recruited in the stock market. First, let's look at a practica...

Cloudflare's 4Q 2021 earnings report

Just took a look at Cloudflare's (NET) 4Q 2021 earnings report. Cloudflare is in an area that covers several hot spots, including content delivery networks, i.e. CDNs, cloud computing, and cybersecurity. For the Cloudflare quarterly report, here is a summary: 1) Revenue of $194 million (then expected 4Q revenue in the range of $184 to $185 million), up 52% year-over-year ($172 million in 2021, up 51% year-over-year). 2) The number of customers continues to grow rapidly, with the total number of customers has reached 1416 (1260 in the previous quarter). 3) Non-GAAP gross margin was 79.2% vs. 78.1% in the same quarter last year (vs. 79.2% in 3Q vs. 77.3% in the same quarter last year.) Non-GAAP net income has started to turn around, meaning it has started to be profitable. 4) Revenue is expected to be in the range of $205 to $206 million in 4Q. That works out to about 6% YoY growth. Cloudflare had good results this time, beating its previous guidance. Revenues are still growing at a...

4 George Soros advice to investors!

Who is George Soros? George Soros is a Hungarian-born Jewish businessman. It is one of the most influential investors in the world. In 1969, the Double Eagle Fund was established for Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, an investment management company. In 1973, Soros and his assistant Rogers left Bleichroeder to co-found Soros Fund Management. In 1979, the well-known Quantum Fund was established and continued to make profits. In the Asian financial turmoil in 1997, George Soros sniped the Thai baht and the Hong Kong dollar, which was frightening. Learning from the experiences of successful people can benefit a lot. Here are 4 tips George Soros gave investors. First, to be successful, you must have ample free time. Most people want to be rich, but not everyone realizes the importance of free time. Many people spend a lot of time working to accumulate wealth, sleep, and forget. Set the goal to complete the work indicated by the superior, or the needs of business partners. But they hav...

AMZN stock forecast 2025： Amazon's main advantages

On July 6, after the US stock market opened, Amazon broke through $3,600, a record high. Amazon has been oscillating between 3000-3500 US dollars in the past year, and the stock price finally broke through. Amazon is a stock that has a high valuation from PE but is seriously undervalued by the market from the perspective of its development prospects. It is one of my favorite technology stocks. Amazon's main advantages are: 1. Amazon's current GMV is only half that of Alibaba. Looking at the current penetration rate of e-commerce in China and the future penetration rate of e-commerce in the United States, we will find that Amazon e-commerce has huge growth potential in the United States. Amazon e-commerce is far from saturated in the United States. 2. Cloud computing has unlimited potential. As the industry leader, Amazon's cloud computing can maintain a growth rate of 20%-30% for many years in the future. 3. The international ...

Safe-haven assets（GLD） are flowing into the market?

On March 9, 2020, the US Dow Jones Index plunged more than 2,000 points, the U.S. stock market crashed, the investment market was full of fear, and market funds flowed into those safe-haven assets? With the spread of the epidemic, the market's risk aversion has continued to increase, and the stock market has continued to fall. As an investor, to reduce investment risks, you must buy safe-haven assets, reduce the purchase or sale of assets in the stock market, and avoid a sharp decline in the stock market, which will cause serious losses. When market risks continue to increase, investors will continue to buy safe-haven assets. Investors should pay attention to the following several safe-haven assets and use them as safe-havens. Dow Jones Index The first safe-haven asset is gold. Gold（GLD）, as a traditional anti-inflation commodity, has always been the preferred safe-haven asset for investors. GLD The second safe-haven asset is the Japanese yen. Because the Japanese y...

Many companies will China close in 2020?

Starting in March, all walks of life in China began to resume work. People stayed at home for more than two months. Many people's moods changed from tension to leisure, and now they are anxious. It's not just the bosses who are anxious. Many employees find that their rents and mortgages are still being paid, the holidays are extended, they can't go to work, and their salaries aren't. Whenever there is no money it is a big problem. More than 700 companies closed down in February, but getting fewer wages is also better than the company suddenly closing down. In February, more than 700 companies have closed down, and this number should be exceeded. Statistics show that more than 55% of catering businesses in China have resumed work, but compared to the same period last year, affected by the epidemic, 78% of catering companies have lost more than 100% of their operating income, and another 16% of them have lost over 70%. This year's sudden outbreak, the impact...

The relationship between Dow theory and the stock market!

Many technical analyses, such as morphological analysis and wave theory, use the Dow theory as the basis for the evolution of original technical analysis. Let's talk about the relationship between the Dow theory and today's stock market. Starting from the three most widely known theorems, theorems, market behavior is inclusive and digestive, market behavior follows the trend, and history will repeat itself. Among these three theorems, there are many Charles investment ideas, which can also be said to be the backbone of technical analysis. Charles' first theorem hoped that the market was originally a gathering place for hundreds of news. For example, Jun A believes that a country's civil war and unstable economy caused it to sell the shares of local companies; Jun B learned that the local companies will still have considerable profitability next year, so he bought the shares of local companies; Jun received a third different message and made an investment decision and...

When did the economic bubble burst?

the economic bubble In addition to the recent ups and downs in the stock market, a lot of things have happened in the financial sector, including a series of bail-out measures including major central banks, the liquidity test of the bond market, and even more, terrible data show that even Wall Street hedge funds, everyone Confused about the current situation. The bubble-filled world of financial assets has triggered a domino effect. The Fed experienced a repurchase that began in September 2019. After a shortage of market funds, it has been printing money to save the market. The crazy bailout should be temporary. Until February 14, 2020, the Fed issued a statement saying that it will gradually reduce the bailout to the repo market from 120 billion to 100 billion per day, and will seize the market for 14 days of repurchase from 30 billion to 20 billion. This move may bring liquidity pressure to the market. In turn, it will cause turbulence in the stock market, I did not expect this...

FinanceLinkway

Search This Blog