Skip to main content

Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression

On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high.

The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range.

The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said that this data is close to the record, 5 times the highest record since the historical record, almost equivalent to 2% of the US working population.

In March 2009, at the time of the financial tsunami, the first data for unemployment benefits was 665,000. It was also in October 1982, when it was the crisis in Latin America, setting a historical record of 695,000. In other words, the highest historical record is 695,000, 3.28 million divided by 695,000, which may be close to 5 times. In the next few weeks, the unemployed population in the United States may exceed 10 million, which is no exaggeration.

When the Great Depression was the worst in 1929, the unemployment rate in the United States reached 25%, which is a very serious unemployment rate. In other words, a quarter of people are unemployed but have not yet reached this level. A consulting report from the United States shows that in the next few weeks, 23 million people may be unemployed at any time in the United States, accounting for 15% of the country's total employed population.

Over the past 30 to 40 years, the United States has undergone this global economic transformation, including industrial chain outsourcing and industrial transfer. Its economy is already very dependent on this service industry, and the service industry accounts for a high proportion of the economy. The added value of the service industry reached US$15 trillion. In 2019, the total GDP of the United States is 21 trillion US dollars, and the service industry accounts for about 80%. In fact, in the United States, many types of work are calculated on an hourly basis, that is, hourly rates are paid by the hour. Then, some people not only have to work one job, or even two jobs to ensure a normal life. Affected by the epidemic this time, a large number of retailers, restaurants, hotels, and other hourly workers disappeared and were greatly affected.

It can be said that this is the part that bears the brunt, because the service industry is the pillar industry of the United States, and the purchasing manager's index of the service industry has also dropped by 10.3 compared with last month. 39.1. This indicator can be said to be the lowest level since October 2009. The unemployment data in the United States is very transparent, and the data is updated very quickly. The United States has just launched a $2 trillion stimulus plan. Under this bill, the US government will provide $1,200 in cash for each adult.

What are the benefits of this series of policies? The biggest benefit of this stimulus policy is not necessarily the ability to save the economy, but it can win time, enterprises can survive, SMEs can be saved, and employment can be saved. This is the current employment and unemployment situation in the United States. It's really serious. This can also be said to be the most severe employment situation since the Great Depression of 1929.
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The five stages of company growth!

company Many people who study stocks will analyze the fundamentals of the stock, such as viewing its performance report, PE, PB, PEG, debt ratio, dividend ratio, cash flow, ROE, EPS growth, etc. I don't know if you tried it. After performing many basic analyses, you will feel that the prospects for a particular stock are very good.  You have even read the analysis reports of many large banks, or listened to the analysis of many market participants and obtained a consistent high evaluation.  Then, you will think that this stock will grow in the future, so you buy it and think that you can use this stock to create a better future from now on, and the final development of the story is the opposite of the fact that the development direction will eventually Put you in trouble or lose money. I will not deny the importance of basic analysis, because, in addition to focusing on technical analysis, I am also very concerned about the company's basic factors. I am an investor fo...
Post a Comment
Read more

Teladoc stock forecast 2025: Is it time to buy TDOC?

 TDOC's performance exceeded expectations. Why did the performance decline after the announcement?  Teladoc (TDOC) reported quarterly earnings of US$0.13 per share, which exceeded the consensus estimate of a loss of US$0.57 per share. In the same period last year, it had a loss of US$0.4 per share.  The earnings of this financial report far exceeded expectations.  In the last quarter, people expected this telemedicine service company to lose 0.25 US dollars per share, but the actual loss per share was 0.27 US dollars, which was not as good as expected at the time.  In the past four quarters, TDOC exceeded expectations twice.  The management stated that the company's current momentum in various channels and regions should not be underestimated in the conference call. It has raised its annual revenue guidance to 20 million U.S. dollars, which is expected to be between 1.97 billion and 2.02 billion U.S. dollars.    In the first quarter, the comp...
Post a Comment
Read more

Capital Flows Tracking Weekly

Release:  January 27, 2021 The weekly Capital Flows estimate the industry's total, based on the report covering more than 98% of mutual fund and ETF assets. Collect actual mutual fund net new cash flows and ETF net issuance together monthly; therefore, there is a discrepancy between these weekly estimates and monthly flows. The data from the previous few weeks reflect revisions due to data adjustments, reclassifications, and changes in the number of fund reports.  Mutual fund data represents the estimated value of net new cash flows, that is, new sales minus redemptions plus net exchanges, while exchange-traded fund (ETF) data represents net issuance, that is, net issuance minus total Redemption amount. This series does not include data on mutual funds that primarily invest in other mutual funds and ETFs that primarily invest in other ETFs.
Post a Comment
Read more

My long-term stock market trading strategy!

trading strategy As a stock market investor, everyone has an investment trading strategy. Through my many years of investment experience, I have tried different investment strategies, used different investment tools, and concluded my own set of investment strategies.  This is a long-term investment strategy, not a short-term one. For ordinary investors, how to cope with the big ups and downs of the stock market, and by sharing my investment trading strategy, I hope that it can help investors and enable the asset portfolio to add value steadily. First, when the stock market is at different stages, I will use different coping methods. There are usually three stages in the stock market, and I generally use three different approaches. First, the stock market is in a rising phase. I usually do not use leveraged instruments or make financial loans to trade. Although leveraged trading can make quick and large profits, it can also make quick and large losses.  When trading wi...
Post a Comment
Read more