Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression

On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high.

The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range.

The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said that this data is close to the record, 5 times the highest record since the historical record, almost equivalent to 2% of the US working population.

In March 2009, at the time of the financial tsunami, the first data for unemployment benefits was 665,000. It was also in October 1982, when it was the crisis in Latin America, setting a historical record of 695,000. In other words, the highest historical record is 695,000, 3.28 million divided by 695,000, which may be close to 5 times. In the next few weeks, the unemployed population in the United States may exceed 10 million, which is no exaggeration.

When the Great Depression was the worst in 1929, the unemployment rate in the United States reached 25%, which is a very serious unemployment rate. In other words, a quarter of people are unemployed but have not yet reached this level. A consulting report from the United States shows that in the next few weeks, 23 million people may be unemployed at any time in the United States, accounting for 15% of the country's total employed population.

Over the past 30 to 40 years, the United States has undergone this global economic transformation, including industrial chain outsourcing and industrial transfer. Its economy is already very dependent on this service industry, and the service industry accounts for a high proportion of the economy. The added value of the service industry reached US$15 trillion. In 2019, the total GDP of the United States is 21 trillion US dollars, and the service industry accounts for about 80%. In fact, in the United States, many types of work are calculated on an hourly basis, that is, hourly rates are paid by the hour. Then, some people not only have to work one job, or even two jobs to ensure a normal life. Affected by the epidemic this time, a large number of retailers, restaurants, hotels, and other hourly workers disappeared and were greatly affected.

It can be said that this is the part that bears the brunt, because the service industry is the pillar industry of the United States, and the purchasing manager's index of the service industry has also dropped by 10.3 compared with last month. 39.1. This indicator can be said to be the lowest level since October 2009. The unemployment data in the United States is very transparent, and the data is updated very quickly. The United States has just launched a $2 trillion stimulus plan. Under this bill, the US government will provide $1,200 in cash for each adult.

What are the benefits of this series of policies? The biggest benefit of this stimulus policy is not necessarily the ability to save the economy, but it can win time, enterprises can survive, SMEs can be saved, and employment can be saved. This is the current employment and unemployment situation in the United States. It's really serious. This can also be said to be the most severe employment situation since the Great Depression of 1929.

Comments

The five stages of company growth!

company Many people who study stocks will analyze the fundamentals of the stock, such as viewing its performance report, PE, PB, PEG, debt ratio, dividend ratio, cash flow, ROE, EPS growth, etc. I don't know if you tried it. After performing many basic analyses, you will feel that the prospects for a particular stock are very good. You have even read the analysis reports of many large banks, or listened to the analysis of many market participants and obtained a consistent high evaluation. Then, you will think that this stock will grow in the future, so you buy it and think that you can use this stock to create a better future from now on, and the final development of the story is the opposite of the fact that the development direction will eventually Put you in trouble or lose money. I will not deny the importance of basic analysis, because, in addition to focusing on technical analysis, I am also very concerned about the company's basic factors. I am an investor fo...

Cloudflare's 4Q 2021 earnings report

Just took a look at Cloudflare's (NET) 4Q 2021 earnings report. Cloudflare is in an area that covers several hot spots, including content delivery networks, i.e. CDNs, cloud computing, and cybersecurity. For the Cloudflare quarterly report, here is a summary: 1) Revenue of $194 million (then expected 4Q revenue in the range of $184 to $185 million), up 52% year-over-year ($172 million in 2021, up 51% year-over-year). 2) The number of customers continues to grow rapidly, with the total number of customers has reached 1416 (1260 in the previous quarter). 3) Non-GAAP gross margin was 79.2% vs. 78.1% in the same quarter last year (vs. 79.2% in 3Q vs. 77.3% in the same quarter last year.) Non-GAAP net income has started to turn around, meaning it has started to be profitable. 4) Revenue is expected to be in the range of $205 to $206 million in 4Q. That works out to about 6% YoY growth. Cloudflare had good results this time, beating its previous guidance. Revenues are still growing at a...

Many companies will China close in 2020?

Starting in March, all walks of life in China began to resume work. People stayed at home for more than two months. Many people's moods changed from tension to leisure, and now they are anxious. It's not just the bosses who are anxious. Many employees find that their rents and mortgages are still being paid, the holidays are extended, they can't go to work, and their salaries aren't. Whenever there is no money it is a big problem. More than 700 companies closed down in February, but getting fewer wages is also better than the company suddenly closing down. In February, more than 700 companies have closed down, and this number should be exceeded. Statistics show that more than 55% of catering businesses in China have resumed work, but compared to the same period last year, affected by the epidemic, 78% of catering companies have lost more than 100% of their operating income, and another 16% of them have lost over 70%. This year's sudden outbreak, the impact...

The Federal Reserve implements interest rate hikes or cuts？

Generally speaking, the Federal Reserve implements interest rate hikes or cuts. Interest rate rises are austerity monetary policies, and interest rate cuts are a loose monetary policy. When the rate hike cycle begins, it indicates that the Federal Reserve is optimistic about the future economic outlook, economic data shows a positive outlook, and market sentiment is optimistic. To avoid excessive economic growth, the Federal Reserve has implemented austerity monetary policy and implemented interest rate hikes. When the interest rate cut cycle begins, it means that the Federal Reserve is bad on the future economic outlook, the economic data shows a bad trend, and the market is pessimistic. To stimulate economic growth, the Federal Reserve has implemented a loose monetary policy and implemented interest rate reductions. Correlation between the S & P 500 and Federal Reserve interest rates Historical data from the S & P 500 shows that when the rate hike cycle begins, the sto...

INTC stock forecast 2025: Intel's acquisition of SiFive

SiFive, a chip design start-up company based on the RISC-V instruction set architecture, has received an acquisition intention from investor Intel. A person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named, said that Intel has offered to buy SiFive for more than $2 billion. RISC-V with x86 and Arm As we all know, Intel dominates the industry leader in x86 architecture chip technology, while SiFive focuses on open-source RISC-V technology and employs several founding members of the RISC-V architecture. For a long time, the field of CPU instruction set architecture has been dominated by x86 and Arm. Since RISC-V was born at the University of California, Berkeley in 2010, it has gradually formed a certain competitive landscape with Arm after more than ten years of development. With the gradual refinement of the application field, the model of one chip making the world has become a thing of the past. Facing the hot AI and Internet of Things market, RISC-V i...

Disney stock forecast 2025: Is it time to buy now?

The much-watched Disney released its second quarter financial report this year. Benefiting from the strong recovery of theme parks and the rapid growth of streaming media business, its net profit and revenue both beat expectations. Disney's stock price rose 5% after the market. Let's take a look at the highlights of Disney's earnings this quarter. In the second quarter, Disney’s total revenue reached 17.02 billion US dollars, exceeding analysts’ expectations of 16.76 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 45.5%. Net profit turned from loss to profit, from a loss of US$4.721 billion last year to a profit of US$918 million. From the perspective of departmental business, Disney Parks, Experience and Products departments have brought a boost to the company's revenue. Since the economic restart, Disney's theme parks, cruise ships and offline merchandise retail businesses have all been greatly improved. The quarterly revenue of these bu...

Look for growth stocks, and let profits run!

let profits run Due to the recent rapid decline in the global stock market, many investors have suffered severe losses in the books they hold. How much money has been lost? What should I do now? Should the stock be sold immediately? Or wait for it to rebound before selling? I usually ask him, why would you buy stocks? Why do you still hold stocks? Sometimes they will tell me very frankly, because after listening to XX masters, XX experts, XX financial performances, or a friend, a relative, or a neighbor telling them, the stock price is very cheap now, so fast Click to buy, or after the stock has fallen for some time, these people will say that the current stock price is cheaper, and it should be evened down, and it will go up no matter what. If you are holding a lot of stocks in the stock market disaster because of this, you have already suffered heavy losses at this moment. I hope this is the last time you are recruited in the stock market. First, let's look at a practica...

SNAP stock forecast 2025: Is it time to buy Snapchat?

In the US social networking industry, there are four listed companies. They are the famous Facebook, former US President Trump's favorite information publishing platform Twitter, photo sharing and social networking site Pinterest, and Snapchat, which is popular among young people. Most of them are between 25 and 55 years old and have used Facebook products more or less. But it is very new to Snapchat. In fact, Snapchat is a powerful challenger for Facebook. The greatest charm lies in rapid growth. In the past year, the stock price has risen from US$20 to more than US$70, and the company is now worth more than US$100 billion. Snap was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in California. The company's flagship product, Snapchat, is photo sharing and social networking software. The software comes from a "burn after reading" photo-sharing application developed by two students from Stanford University. In April 2011, founder Evan Spiegel introduced the idea of his final p...

Coinbase stock forecast 2025: Negative for two consecutive days

For investors in the currency circle, these two days are destined to be an uneasy day. First, the Republic of El Salvador officially regarded Bitcoin as a legal currency for trading, and then Bitcoin experienced a wave of flash crashes. The price once plummeted from $52,800 by 19% to $42,900. Finally, the Bitcoin exchange Coinbase was negative for two consecutive days. Let me talk about the fact that El Salvador uses Bitcoin as a legal currency. To attract more foreign investment and provide lower-cost financial and foreign exchange services, the Salvadoran government-approved Bitcoin as a legal currency as early as June this year and decided to officially implement this currency on September 7, which is yesterday. policy. The government plans to distribute $30 worth of bitcoin to residents who have registered for e-wallets, with a total investment of up to 75 million U.S. dollars. But yesterday’s implementation results showed that the start of this plan was not smooth...

Will China's economy recover as the epidemic is under control?

During the Chinese Spring Festival, novel coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, and the Chinese stock market was hit hard. Subsequently, the Chinese government quickly took strict measures to block Wuhan, a city with a population of tens of thousands of people, to prevent the further spread of the epidemic, and to take corresponding epidemic prevention measures in other cities. When the worst of the epidemic had already occurred, the Chinese stock market quickly rebounded. As the number of infections continues to decline, China's Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise further. Sars Period Looking back on similar events in the past, the SARS epidemic in 2003, the stock market also made a short-term decline, and then the SARS epidemic was brought under control, the stock market immediately went up for a long time. According to past historical data, the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the stock market may be short-lived. China Fund Capital Flow Howeve...

FinanceLinkway

Search This Blog