Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression

On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high.

The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range.

The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said that this data is close to the record, 5 times the highest record since the historical record, almost equivalent to 2% of the US working population.

In March 2009, at the time of the financial tsunami, the first data for unemployment benefits was 665,000. It was also in October 1982, when it was the crisis in Latin America, setting a historical record of 695,000. In other words, the highest historical record is 695,000, 3.28 million divided by 695,000, which may be close to 5 times. In the next few weeks, the unemployed population in the United States may exceed 10 million, which is no exaggeration.

When the Great Depression was the worst in 1929, the unemployment rate in the United States reached 25%, which is a very serious unemployment rate. In other words, a quarter of people are unemployed but have not yet reached this level. A consulting report from the United States shows that in the next few weeks, 23 million people may be unemployed at any time in the United States, accounting for 15% of the country's total employed population.

Over the past 30 to 40 years, the United States has undergone this global economic transformation, including industrial chain outsourcing and industrial transfer. Its economy is already very dependent on this service industry, and the service industry accounts for a high proportion of the economy. The added value of the service industry reached US$15 trillion. In 2019, the total GDP of the United States is 21 trillion US dollars, and the service industry accounts for about 80%. In fact, in the United States, many types of work are calculated on an hourly basis, that is, hourly rates are paid by the hour. Then, some people not only have to work one job, or even two jobs to ensure a normal life. Affected by the epidemic this time, a large number of retailers, restaurants, hotels, and other hourly workers disappeared and were greatly affected.

It can be said that this is the part that bears the brunt, because the service industry is the pillar industry of the United States, and the purchasing manager's index of the service industry has also dropped by 10.3 compared with last month. 39.1. This indicator can be said to be the lowest level since October 2009. The unemployment data in the United States is very transparent, and the data is updated very quickly. The United States has just launched a $2 trillion stimulus plan. Under this bill, the US government will provide $1,200 in cash for each adult.

What are the benefits of this series of policies? The biggest benefit of this stimulus policy is not necessarily the ability to save the economy, but it can win time, enterprises can survive, SMEs can be saved, and employment can be saved. This is the current employment and unemployment situation in the United States. It's really serious. This can also be said to be the most severe employment situation since the Great Depression of 1929.

Comments

How to judge the market entry signal?

buy sell Most people lose money when investing in stocks. One of the biggest reasons is that they buy stocks at the wrong time. Why did they buy the stock at the wrong time? Facts have proved that many people do not know that stocks only rise 1/4 times, and that is the easiest time to make money. And in another 3/4 of the time, making money is difficult, and losing money is easier. Today, I will share how to choose the right time to buy stocks. I hope you can see the final result because, in the end, I will share with you how to use simple technical indicators to help us find the exact input time. First of all, everyone must know a concept, whether it is a stock market or a stock, there are four stages. Let us take the stock market as an example. The first stage is called the "next stage". At this time, the market has just experienced a sharp decline, and most investors in the market are not interested in the stock market, because their memories are still stuck in t...

What is a spac stock in the Investment market?

Let me talk about SPAC first. SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) means "Special Purpose Acquisition Company", also known as "Blank Check" or "Shell Company". As the name suggests, this company has no actual business, and its essence is a financial innovation tool that provides companies with listing services. More simply, SPAC is a shell resource company established by professional institutions such as investment banks and fund companies as promoters. The sole purpose of this company's listing is to find the target company, through reverse mergers and acquisitions, to achieve the target company's listing and financing. Most people pay attention to SPAC from 2020, but in fact, SPAC is nothing new. The SPAC structure was first born in the 1990s and was pioneered by David Nabers, who worked for the Wall Street investment bank GKN. However, in the past few decades, compared with traditional IPOs, the number of SPACs is very limited, and ...

How to judge the diffusive horn pattern ?

As an investment trader, you must understand the use of chart technology analysis to determine the position of market transactions. Now let's talk about a common pattern in chart technical analysis, which is the diffuse speaker pattern. Diffusion horn patterns are different from trend patterns and horizontal patterns. Diffusion horn patterns are more difficult to judge than trend patterns and horizontal patterns, and often cause losses to investment traders. So, how do investment traders judge the spreading horn pattern and make favorable investment transactions? S&P500 Index The price trend of the diffusive horn pattern. When the price rises over some time, then the price falls, and falls below the recent low, then rises, and rises through the last high. It keeps expanding in two directions. If we connect the high point and the low point with straight lines, respectively, we can show a horn shape, so it is called a diffuse horn shape. Because of this, some i...

ASML stock forecast 2025: is it time to buy now?

Hello everyone, recently, because the market has a lot of fears about rising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet, the Nasdaq as a whole has fallen a lot, and each support has basically been broken one after another. The general price has also broken, so there is no good signal to increase positions in the short term. It may be safer to hold cash first and wait until the decline begins to slow down a little or see a really cost-effective price before considering adding positions. However, the long-term bull market in the future will not end because of this year's interest rate hike, and cash will only become more and more worthless in the long run. In the short-term continuous decline of the stock market, we must put our minds in a positive state. At the same time, we must properly organize our thoughts and positions, prepare bullets, and use this time to do our homework for the stocks we are interested in. In this way, when a good price appears in the future, you will be...

FinanceLinkway

Search This Blog