Non-agricultural data far exceeded expectations

Last week, overseas markets paid the most attention to the US non-agricultural data in June. The latest non-agricultural data showed that the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the US increased by 85 million in June, far exceeding market expectations of 720,000. Generally speaking, the substantial improvement in non-agricultural data often indicates strong economic development. So has the US economy really begun to recover?

We all know that when the number of non-agricultural employment increases sharply, it often reflects that economic development remains healthy. Therefore, this data is an important indicator for observing the state of social, economic, and financial development in the United States. If the data is positive in the long term, the dollar will usually be supported and strengthened.

Affected by this news, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively hit a record closing high. Among them, the S&P 500 index rose 0.75% to 4352.34 points; the Nasdaq index rose 0.81% to 14,639.33 points; the Dow Jones index rose 0.44% to 34786.35 points. Among them, the S&P 500 had a record high for 7 consecutive trading days, the first time since 1997.

In this regard, some analysts believe that the non-agricultural data for June can be said to be very "just right" data. The Chief Investment Officer of Wells Fargo Wealth Management said that this report could not be better for the capital market. Not only did it provide the job growth the market wanted to see, but it was also not large enough to cause the Fed to move faster.

At the same time, because Fed officials are inconsistent on the Fed's next monetary policy, the gold market as a whole is in sideways fluctuations.

In addition, it is worth noting that the OPEC+ deadlock has not progressed at all after 24 hours of the sudden adjournment yesterday, leaving the market unable to determine whether there will be a huge supply shortage in the second half of the year. This will cause oil prices to soar, further push up inflation expectations, and interfere. Economic recovery.

Although the non-agricultural figures are optimistic, the unemployment rate has also risen while the number of employed people has increased substantially.

IN JUNE, the US unemployment rate was 5.9%, which was less than market expectations of 5.6%. Market analysis believes that the higher-than-expected employment growth rate indicates that the US economy is still growing, but the rise in the unemployment rate indicates that the US economy has not yet fully recovered.

Economists generally expect that with the opening of schools and the expiration of unemployment benefits provided by the government, the tight labor supply will ease in the autumn, but they warn that many unemployed people may never return to work. Record-breaking stock prices and soaring house prices have also prompted people to retire early.

In addition, the spread of the Delta virus has also cast a shadow over the recovery of the US economy. Data show that the delta strain has become the main strain circulating in the United States, accounting for 40% of new infections.

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