Skip to main content

Three stages of bull and bear markets!



The bull and bear markets of the stock market are traditional indicators of the business cycle. As an investor, distinguishing bull and bear markets in the stock market and grasping the long-term development direction of the market can avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations and the impact of complex market information. 

For example, the market fluctuations brought by news information, the sudden and sharp drop in market prices, and the impact of investor sentiment have led to making wrong investment trading decisions.

The stock market is in a bull market, most asset prices will continue to rise, and the stock market is in a bear market, most asset prices will continue to fall. Both bull and bear markets are divided into three stages, so how to tell whether the stock market is in a bull or bear market, and at what stage.

S&P500 Index

What is a bull market?

In the first stage of the bull market, after the market economy was in recession, the stock price fell to a very low position and the transaction volume was very small, but the market economy began to improve. 

Value investors believed that the value of the stock was undervalued, and market capital began to enter the stock market. Buying undervalued assets, stock prices started to rise, but at this time most investors still do not believe that the market economy has recovered and market sentiment is still pessimistic. 

In the second stage of the bull market, after the stock price rose for some time, the market continued to announce favorable news. Investors began to restore confidence in the market economy. With the increase of market economic value and optimistic market sentiment, investors continued to enter the stock market to buy Into assets, stock prices continue to rise, and trading volume continues to rise.

 In the third stage of the bull market, the market economy grew excessively, investors were confident about the market economy prospects, market sentiment was extremely optimistic, funds went into the stock market crazy to buy assets, stock prices continued to hit new highs, and trading volume was active.

S&P500 Index

What is a bear market?

The first stage of the bear market appeared at the end of the third stage of the bull market, the market economy began to decline, and the stock price had risen to a very high position. The over-inflation of asset prices caused the value of stocks to be greatly overvalued. Value investors began to sell stocks, and stock prices began to fall. 

In the second phase of the bear market, more and more investors are beginning to realize that the economy has already declined, the market keeps publishing unfavorable news, market sentiment is panic, investors are constantly rushing to throw stocks, and stock prices are falling rapidly. In the third stage of the bear market, stock prices fell sharply, and market investment sentiment was extremely pessimistic. 

Investors all threw out stocks, and stock prices fell to a very low position. With the recovery of the market economy, value investors have started to buy undervalued assets, funds have begun to enter the stock market, and a new round of bull market will begin.

There is no identical bull market, nor is there an identical bear market. If investors know which economic cycle they are currently in and how to distinguish between the characteristics of bull and bear markets, they can make correct investment trading decisions when stock prices are rising or falling too much. The growth and decline of the market economy will create opportunities for us to buy or sell assets.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

VRTX stock forecast 2025: Vertex is undervalued

Let's look at some biotech companies with stable cash flow and currently undervalued value stocks as targets for diversified portfolios.  The company I shared today, called Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), is dedicated to the development of rare diseases, especially Cystic Fibrosis (CF). I have always had high respect for the rare disease group of pharmaceutical companies in the disease category. In addition, in the future, gene and cell therapies are subverting the role of rare diseases in the pharmaceutical industry, making rare diseases no longer uncommon. It's tasteless, but a field full of the future. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. was established in 1989 by Joshua Boger and Kevin Kinsella. is headquartered in Boston. At that time, several very good research and development companies were established in the United States, including the aforementioned Regeneron, Gilead, and today's Vertex.  Vertex In the past, he devoted himself to the development of small molecule drugs, wh...

Investors have begun to switch back to traditional growth stocks

 On Thursday, the stock prices of Cisco, Alphabet, and IBM hit new highs. But more importantly, the previously unpopular speculative growth stocks, including stocks bought by many ARK funds, have now begun to rebound.  How is this going?  Investors' perspective on the market is changing. In the first quarter of this year, mainstream voices in the market believe that the economy will restart strongly, bond yields will rise, and inflation may become a problem later this year. After the end of the first quarter, these expectations were only partially fulfilled.  The U.S. economy has indeed restarted strongly, but bond yields fell in the first quarter instead of rising because investors began to believe:  1) Inflation and supply chain disruption may indeed be "temporary", as the Fed insists;  2) The second and third quarters will be the highest points of stock returns and economic growth.  Alec Young, a chief investment officer of Tactical Alpha, said: “...

Bitcoin crashed! In a word of Musk, the digital currency plummeted!

Ethereum is thriving, what logic?  The world's second-largest digital currency, Ethereum, is continuing to challenge the influence of Bitcoin by its "functionality".  On the morning of May 13th, the price of Bitcoin plummeted by more than 13% and once fell below the $50,000 mark. As a challenger to Bitcoin, Ethereum fell by about 8% and continued to narrow its decline. The previous day, Ether  The market rose by 6% during the intraday session, with a market value exceeding US$500 billion, and its price hitting a record high.   In the past 6 months, the price of Ethereum has risen by as much as 8 times, out of the independent market, has far outperformed the continued consolidation of Bitcoin.  At present, the share of Ethereum in digital currencies' total global market value has risen to 18%, while the weight of Bitcoin's market value has been cut in the past two years, and the current market value has dropped to 38%.  On the morning of May 13, there w...

ASML stock forecast 2025: is it time to buy now?

Hello everyone, recently, because the market has a lot of fears about rising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet, the Nasdaq as a whole has fallen a lot, and each support has basically been broken one after another. The general price has also broken, so there is no good signal to increase positions in the short term. It may be safer to hold cash first and wait until the decline begins to slow down a little or see a really cost-effective price before considering adding positions. However, the long-term bull market in the future will not end because of this year's interest rate hike, and cash will only become more and more worthless in the long run. In the short-term continuous decline of the stock market, we must put our minds in a positive state. At the same time, we must properly organize our thoughts and positions, prepare bullets, and use this time to do our homework for the stocks we are interested in. In this way, when a good price appears in the future, you will be...

AMD stock forecast 2025: Q2 is expected to perform strongly

Before the US stock market on July 19, US technology stocks continued their decline last Friday, and AMD's stock price also continued to fall.  AMD will announce the results of the second quarter of 2021 on July 27. The market expects this performance to be strong, so this round of decline may be a great opportunity to buy the stock.  financial indicator  Due to the strong market demand for CPU and graphics cards in 2021, AMD’s revenue is expected to exceed the maximum value of the financial guidance. AMD’s C&G business is expected to grow the most because higher-priced AMD Ryzen and high-end AMD Radeon sales continue to increase.  In terms of gross profit margin, the market expects AMD's gross profit margin in Q2 2021 will increase by 47% year-on-year.  If the average selling prices of CPUs and GPUs continue to rise in Q2 of 2021, and the ASPs of CPUs and GPUs will increase in Q1 of 2021, the gross profit margin may also increase by 48%.  CPU market sh...

Cloudflare's 4Q 2021 earnings report

 Just took a look at Cloudflare's (NET) 4Q 2021 earnings report. Cloudflare is in an area that covers several hot spots, including content delivery networks, i.e. CDNs, cloud computing, and cybersecurity. For the Cloudflare quarterly report, here is a summary: 1) Revenue of $194 million (then expected 4Q revenue in the range of $184 to $185 million), up 52% year-over-year ($172 million in 2021, up 51% year-over-year). 2) The number of customers continues to grow rapidly, with the total number of customers has reached 1416 (1260 in the previous quarter). 3) Non-GAAP gross margin was 79.2% vs. 78.1% in the same quarter last year (vs. 79.2% in 3Q vs. 77.3% in the same quarter last year.) Non-GAAP net income has started to turn around, meaning it has started to be profitable. 4) Revenue is expected to be in the range of $205 to $206 million in 4Q. That works out to about 6% YoY growth. Cloudflare had good results this time, beating its previous guidance. Revenues are still growing at a...

Capital Flows Tracking Weekly

Release:  January 27, 2021 The weekly Capital Flows estimate the industry's total, based on the report covering more than 98% of mutual fund and ETF assets. Collect actual mutual fund net new cash flows and ETF net issuance together monthly; therefore, there is a discrepancy between these weekly estimates and monthly flows. The data from the previous few weeks reflect revisions due to data adjustments, reclassifications, and changes in the number of fund reports.  Mutual fund data represents the estimated value of net new cash flows, that is, new sales minus redemptions plus net exchanges, while exchange-traded fund (ETF) data represents net issuance, that is, net issuance minus total Redemption amount. This series does not include data on mutual funds that primarily invest in other mutual funds and ETFs that primarily invest in other ETFs.

Intel, Twitter, and Snapchat stock forecast 2025: latest quarterly earnings reports

 Three technology companies, Intel, Twitter, and Snapchat, released their latest quarterly earnings reports.  Let's take a look at their performance and the key information revealed at the earnings conference. Intel(INTC) stock forecast 2025  Several important data on Intel's earnings report beat expectations.  Among them, earnings per share were US$1.28, higher than the expected US$1.06, an increase of 12% over the same period last year; total revenue was US$18.5 billion, beating analysts’ expectations of US$17.8 billion.  However, in Intel's guidance for the next quarter, the Non-GAAP gross profit margin given is only 55%, which is far lower than the market's expected 59.2%.  The reason given by Intel is that it is worried that supply chain problems will limit profitability, and the expected chip manufacturing business will bring additional costs.  For chip companies, the market is most concerned about gross profit margin.  TSMC fell last week b...

FB stock forecast 2022: Facebook’s latest earnings report analysis

Today I will interpret its just-announced financial report for the second quarter of 2021. combined with the digital advertising industry's general development direction and competitive landscape. First, let’s summarize Facebook’s latest earnings report. I think Facebook’s second-quarter earnings report is very, very good. We can see how good it is from year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Revenue in the second quarter increased by 56% year-on-year, while it increased by 48% year-on-year in the first quarter. Operating profit in the second quarter increased by 107% year-on-year, while the first quarter increased by 93% year-on-year.  Net profit increased by 101% in the second quarter, compared with a year-on-year growth of 94% in the first quarter. Earnings per share in the second quarter increased by 101% year-on-year, while the first quarter increased by 93% year-on-year. The operating margin in the second quarter was 43%, compared to 32% in the same period last year. The perform...

NIO and Tesla(TSLA) stock forecast 2025: released important news

  In the past two days, two electric vehicle companies, NIO and Tesla have released important news.  However, the market gave mixed reactions, one rose and the other fell. Let's take a look at what happened.  To  NIO stock forecast 2025  Let me talk about NIO first.  NIO announced this morning that the company will issue additional shares totaling US$2 billion. The price of the additional issuance will be based on the current market price, and the timing of the issuance will be determined according to the company’s needs. It may be a one-time sale or a share.  Wholesale sale.  After calculation, this will cause about a 3% equity dilution for existing shareholders.  However, the market seems to have given more interpretation. Today, NIO's share price has fallen by 6.3%, which is more than twice the theoretical dilution.  To  From the prospectus, the company only stated broadly that the funds raised will be used to strengthen its bala...