Skip to main content

Three stages of bull and bear markets!



The bull and bear markets of the stock market are traditional indicators of the business cycle. As an investor, distinguishing bull and bear markets in the stock market and grasping the long-term development direction of the market can avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations and the impact of complex market information. 

For example, the market fluctuations brought by news information, the sudden and sharp drop in market prices, and the impact of investor sentiment have led to making wrong investment trading decisions.

The stock market is in a bull market, most asset prices will continue to rise, and the stock market is in a bear market, most asset prices will continue to fall. Both bull and bear markets are divided into three stages, so how to tell whether the stock market is in a bull or bear market, and at what stage.

S&P500 Index

What is a bull market?

In the first stage of the bull market, after the market economy was in recession, the stock price fell to a very low position and the transaction volume was very small, but the market economy began to improve. 

Value investors believed that the value of the stock was undervalued, and market capital began to enter the stock market. Buying undervalued assets, stock prices started to rise, but at this time most investors still do not believe that the market economy has recovered and market sentiment is still pessimistic. 

In the second stage of the bull market, after the stock price rose for some time, the market continued to announce favorable news. Investors began to restore confidence in the market economy. With the increase of market economic value and optimistic market sentiment, investors continued to enter the stock market to buy Into assets, stock prices continue to rise, and trading volume continues to rise.

 In the third stage of the bull market, the market economy grew excessively, investors were confident about the market economy prospects, market sentiment was extremely optimistic, funds went into the stock market crazy to buy assets, stock prices continued to hit new highs, and trading volume was active.

S&P500 Index

What is a bear market?

The first stage of the bear market appeared at the end of the third stage of the bull market, the market economy began to decline, and the stock price had risen to a very high position. The over-inflation of asset prices caused the value of stocks to be greatly overvalued. Value investors began to sell stocks, and stock prices began to fall. 

In the second phase of the bear market, more and more investors are beginning to realize that the economy has already declined, the market keeps publishing unfavorable news, market sentiment is panic, investors are constantly rushing to throw stocks, and stock prices are falling rapidly. In the third stage of the bear market, stock prices fell sharply, and market investment sentiment was extremely pessimistic. 

Investors all threw out stocks, and stock prices fell to a very low position. With the recovery of the market economy, value investors have started to buy undervalued assets, funds have begun to enter the stock market, and a new round of bull market will begin.

There is no identical bull market, nor is there an identical bear market. If investors know which economic cycle they are currently in and how to distinguish between the characteristics of bull and bear markets, they can make correct investment trading decisions when stock prices are rising or falling too much. The growth and decline of the market economy will create opportunities for us to buy or sell assets.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

ASML stock forecast 2025: is it time to buy now?

Hello everyone, recently, because the market has a lot of fears about rising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet, the Nasdaq as a whole has fallen a lot, and each support has basically been broken one after another. The general price has also broken, so there is no good signal to increase positions in the short term. It may be safer to hold cash first and wait until the decline begins to slow down a little or see a really cost-effective price before considering adding positions. However, the long-term bull market in the future will not end because of this year's interest rate hike, and cash will only become more and more worthless in the long run. In the short-term continuous decline of the stock market, we must put our minds in a positive state. At the same time, we must properly organize our thoughts and positions, prepare bullets, and use this time to do our homework for the stocks we are interested in. In this way, when a good price appears in the future, you will be...

Cloudflare's 4Q 2021 earnings report

 Just took a look at Cloudflare's (NET) 4Q 2021 earnings report. Cloudflare is in an area that covers several hot spots, including content delivery networks, i.e. CDNs, cloud computing, and cybersecurity. For the Cloudflare quarterly report, here is a summary: 1) Revenue of $194 million (then expected 4Q revenue in the range of $184 to $185 million), up 52% year-over-year ($172 million in 2021, up 51% year-over-year). 2) The number of customers continues to grow rapidly, with the total number of customers has reached 1416 (1260 in the previous quarter). 3) Non-GAAP gross margin was 79.2% vs. 78.1% in the same quarter last year (vs. 79.2% in 3Q vs. 77.3% in the same quarter last year.) Non-GAAP net income has started to turn around, meaning it has started to be profitable. 4) Revenue is expected to be in the range of $205 to $206 million in 4Q. That works out to about 6% YoY growth. Cloudflare had good results this time, beating its previous guidance. Revenues are still growing at a...

NIO stock forecast 2025: Core technologies

In terms of new forces in car manufacturing, industry participants have entered the fast lane in areas such as new product releases and intelligent driving. With the "general trend" of the popularization of electric vehicles, you will catch up. For NIO, which is the first to deploy the electric vehicle industry, whether ET7 can take the industry pioneer into the "overtaking lane" and continue to be at the forefront of the industry. Examining NIO's strategic measures is an effective way to try to find answers. Way, especially in the context of the “general trend” of electric vehicles.  NIO's Core technologies:  1. At present and for a period of time, the price, performance iteration, and supply of batteries and core raw materials will be the core factors that determine the popularization of pure electric vehicles, and determine a series of trends in the market and participants.  Lithium is an indispensable and important element of power batteries. The comme...

FB stock forecast 2022: Facebook’s latest earnings report analysis

Today I will interpret its just-announced financial report for the second quarter of 2021. combined with the digital advertising industry's general development direction and competitive landscape. First, let’s summarize Facebook’s latest earnings report. I think Facebook’s second-quarter earnings report is very, very good. We can see how good it is from year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Revenue in the second quarter increased by 56% year-on-year, while it increased by 48% year-on-year in the first quarter. Operating profit in the second quarter increased by 107% year-on-year, while the first quarter increased by 93% year-on-year.  Net profit increased by 101% in the second quarter, compared with a year-on-year growth of 94% in the first quarter. Earnings per share in the second quarter increased by 101% year-on-year, while the first quarter increased by 93% year-on-year. The operating margin in the second quarter was 43%, compared to 32% in the same period last year. The perform...

Square(SQ) stock forecast 2025: Is it time to buy?

  Today I will talk about a stock that can be held for a long time was born in the field of electronic payment.   That is Square, another electronic payment company founded by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorcy.  In China, the development of payment methods jumped directly from debit cards to electronic payment, skipping the era of credit card payment, and there is no large-scale popularization. This is due to the continuous innovation of Alipay and Tencent Pay.   In the United States, credit card payment was very popular in the past, and the development of electronic payment was relatively slow. Therefore, domestic investors who often use Alipay and WeChat, look at Square's business, it will be very easy to understand, and the development path is relatively easy to predict.  Speaking of Square, I have to mention another giant in the electronic payment industry, PayPal. The predecessor of PayPal was Max Levchin, Peter Thiel, and Luke Nosek, founded by Con...

NIO and Tesla(TSLA) stock forecast 2025: released important news

  In the past two days, two electric vehicle companies, NIO and Tesla have released important news.  However, the market gave mixed reactions, one rose and the other fell. Let's take a look at what happened.  To  NIO stock forecast 2025  Let me talk about NIO first.  NIO announced this morning that the company will issue additional shares totaling US$2 billion. The price of the additional issuance will be based on the current market price, and the timing of the issuance will be determined according to the company’s needs. It may be a one-time sale or a share.  Wholesale sale.  After calculation, this will cause about a 3% equity dilution for existing shareholders.  However, the market seems to have given more interpretation. Today, NIO's share price has fallen by 6.3%, which is more than twice the theoretical dilution.  To  From the prospectus, the company only stated broadly that the funds raised will be used to strengthen its bala...

C3.ai stock forecast 2025: Is it time to buy now?

  Few emerging technologies are as exciting as artificial intelligence. We have witnessed its ability to be applied in new ways, from quickly analyzing large amounts of data to improve the efficiency of hardware and software. C3.ai(AI) is one of the only companies in the world that develop artificial intelligence into independent services. In short, artificial intelligence is its entire business.  Investors avoided such stocks this year because large technology companies began to engage in artificial intelligence projects, raising concerns about increased competitive threats.  However, C3.ai continued to increase revenue, narrowed its losses, and added 82% of its customers in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021. Therefore, the stock price has fallen about 60% so far this year, which may be a huge opportunity for those who want to get involved in this field.  A unique business case  Imagine that if a company needs to develop its own artificial intelligence, sim...

3 Chinese technology stocks forecast 2025: JD PDD and BZUN

  Forget Alibaba(BABA)!  These 3 Chinese technology stocks are more worth buying      Hello everyone, Alibaba is China's largest e-commerce and cloud company. From January to late May, Alibaba's market value has shrunk by nearly 10%, lagging behind many peers.  Antitrust investigations in China, stricter auditing standards in the United States, and funding from growth stocks to value stocks have all dragged down Alibaba's stock price.      Alibaba’s stock is trading at an expected price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times, which may seem cheap, but analysts still expect Alibaba’s earnings to fall by 3% this year because it has absorbed a record US$2.75 billion in antitrust fines.  It also needs to stop exclusive deals with big brands, which may weaken the company's defenses against smaller e-commerce markets.      But this is not all. Alibaba may be forced to divest media assets and share user data with the government, and the group's financial technology su...

Disney stock forecast 2025: Is it time to buy now?

  The much-watched Disney released its second quarter financial report this year.  Benefiting from the strong recovery of theme parks and the rapid growth of streaming media business, its net profit and revenue both beat expectations.  Disney's stock price rose 5% after the market.  Let's take a look at the highlights of Disney's earnings this quarter.  In the second quarter, Disney’s total revenue reached 17.02 billion US dollars, exceeding analysts’ expectations of 16.76 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 45.5%.  Net profit turned from loss to profit, from a loss of US$4.721 billion last year to a profit of US$918 million.  From the perspective of departmental business, Disney Parks, Experience and Products departments have brought a boost to the company's revenue.  Since the economic restart, Disney's theme parks, cruise ships and offline merchandise retail businesses have all been greatly improved. The quarterly revenue of these bu...

Coinbase stock forecast 2025: Negative for two consecutive days

  For investors in the currency circle, these two days are destined to be an uneasy day. First, the Republic of El Salvador officially regarded Bitcoin as a legal currency for trading, and then Bitcoin experienced a wave of flash crashes. The price once plummeted from $52,800 by 19% to $42,900. Finally, the Bitcoin exchange Coinbase was negative for two consecutive days.  Let me talk about the fact that El Salvador uses Bitcoin as a legal currency. To attract more foreign investment and provide lower-cost financial and foreign exchange services, the Salvadoran government-approved Bitcoin as a legal currency as early as June this year and decided to officially implement this currency on September 7, which is yesterday. policy. The government plans to distribute $30 worth of bitcoin to residents who have registered for e-wallets, with a total investment of up to 75 million U.S. dollars. But yesterday’s implementation results showed that the start of this plan was not smooth...