Gold(GLD) Price Forecast Is More Than $2,500

What is the fair price of gold? Gold Price Predictions And Forecast Is More Than $2,500?

Traditionally, gold is one of the investors' favorite investment tools, and gold is also an essential asset when a bear market coming.

Through the following simple model of gold, it has certain reference significance for the reasonable price of gold at different times.

The following two methods to calculate the reasonable price of gold? The pricing method of gold is to calculate the moment when the market needs to reprice gold.

For example, during the financial crisis, the price of gold at that time and the money supply at that time were compared with the current money supply to calculate the current reasonable price of gold.

method one:

In 2008, when the gold price was 880 US dollars, the M2 money supply at that time was 7800 billion.

The current M2 money supply is 18,000 billion, so it is inferred that the current gold price should be 2030 US dollars.

United States Money Supply M2

If it is provided in M1 currency, the money supply at that time is 1600 billion, and the current M1 money supply is 5600 billion, then it is inferred that the current gold price should be 2660 US dollars.

Method Two:

Using the value-added calculation of the US balance sheet, the expansion rate of the assets of the balance sheet, if the US assets doubled, then gold should double.

The gold price calculation formula

However, if through this printing of money, the GDP of the US economy is inflated, it must be calculated by adding the US GDP.

United States GDP

In 2008, the GDP at that time was 14,712 billion, and now the latest GDP is 21,427 billion. By increasing currency issuance, it has indeed driven 44% growth in the US economy.

United States Central Bank Balance Sheet

Calculated from the US balance sheet, if the US balance sheet rises by 50%, gold rises by 50%. At the same time, it will be deducted GDP growth in the United States.

Because the increase in the balance sheet is logically proportional to the gold day, so it is a number. The growth of US GDP is logically inversely proportional to gold, so it is a divisor.

Taking 2011 as an example, gold has maintained a rise for several years. From 2008 to 2011, the balance sheet of the United States expanded by 143%, and the gold and gold theory rose by 143%. But GDP also rose by 5.6%.

The reasonable price of gold in 2011 was US$2025. As a result, his highest price was US$1920, almost US$2,000.

So how do you explain that after the gold price fell, $2,000 fell to $1,000?

Because the Fed stopped QE at that time and even reduced its balance sheet. Looking at the balance sheet, the Fed began to shrink its balance sheet in 2014.

This resulted in a 16% reduction in the balance sheet.

At the same time, GDP has expanded by 17%. These two factors are not good for gold at the same time.

It was calculated that the fair price of gold at that time was 1076 US dollars.

Then the forecasted price of gold in 2020 is based on historical data to calculate the reasonable price of gold.

Calculating with data from 2011, in 2019, the balance sheet expanded by 142%, GDP grew by 36%, and the fair price of gold was US$2,770.

Calculating with 2018 data, when gold goes to the lowest level but 1160 US dollars, the balance sheet grows by 155%. If GDP grows 0%, the reasonable price of gold is 2958 US dollars.

Gold price chart

What is the reasonable price of gold? There are traces to be found. Calculating the fair price of gold through years of data proves that the price of gold should be more than $2,500.

Related articles

April 04, 2020: The US stock market plummeted. Why did gold and crude oil plunge and lose their value?

Comments

Safe-haven assets（GLD） are flowing into the market?

On March 9, 2020, the US Dow Jones Index plunged more than 2,000 points, the U.S. stock market crashed, the investment market was full of fear, and market funds flowed into those safe-haven assets? With the spread of the epidemic, the market's risk aversion has continued to increase, and the stock market has continued to fall. As an investor, to reduce investment risks, you must buy safe-haven assets, reduce the purchase or sale of assets in the stock market, and avoid a sharp decline in the stock market, which will cause serious losses. When market risks continue to increase, investors will continue to buy safe-haven assets. Investors should pay attention to the following several safe-haven assets and use them as safe-havens. Dow Jones Index The first safe-haven asset is gold. Gold（GLD）, as a traditional anti-inflation commodity, has always been the preferred safe-haven asset for investors. GLD The second safe-haven asset is the Japanese yen. Because the Japanese y...

NIO vs LI vs XPEV stock： Q1 financial report analysis

Q1 financial report analysis： NIO vs LI vs XPEV stock In the financial report, the most striking thing is the delivery volume. Comprehensive data shows that the NIO Q1 delivery volume exceeded 20,000 for the first time and continued to lead. Beginning in 2021, NIO set a record of 20,060 deliveries in the first quarter, an increase of 422.7% year-on-year. All aspects of XPEV can be described as "stable". The delivery of LI decreased by 13.03% month-on-month, making it the only company among the top three automakers that had a negative growth rate from the previous month. At the same time, the financial report showed that after achieving profit in the previous quarter, LI Q1 turned into a loss. The net loss reached 360 million yuan, an increase of 366.9% year-on-year. It is not difficult to see that the gap between LI Auto and the other two companies has not narrowed. At the same time, in the car-making boom, the market's v...

FB stock forecast 2022: Facebook’s latest earnings report analysis

Today I will interpret its just-announced financial report for the second quarter of 2021. combined with the digital advertising industry's general development direction and competitive landscape. First, let’s summarize Facebook’s latest earnings report. I think Facebook’s second-quarter earnings report is very, very good. We can see how good it is from year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Revenue in the second quarter increased by 56% year-on-year, while it increased by 48% year-on-year in the first quarter. Operating profit in the second quarter increased by 107% year-on-year, while the first quarter increased by 93% year-on-year. Net profit increased by 101% in the second quarter, compared with a year-on-year growth of 94% in the first quarter. Earnings per share in the second quarter increased by 101% year-on-year, while the first quarter increased by 93% year-on-year. The operating margin in the second quarter was 43%, compared to 32% in the same period last year. The perform...

AMZN stock forecast 2025： Amazon's main advantages

On July 6, after the US stock market opened, Amazon broke through $3,600, a record high. Amazon has been oscillating between 3000-3500 US dollars in the past year, and the stock price finally broke through. Amazon is a stock that has a high valuation from PE but is seriously undervalued by the market from the perspective of its development prospects. It is one of my favorite technology stocks. Amazon's main advantages are: 1. Amazon's current GMV is only half that of Alibaba. Looking at the current penetration rate of e-commerce in China and the future penetration rate of e-commerce in the United States, we will find that Amazon e-commerce has huge growth potential in the United States. Amazon e-commerce is far from saturated in the United States. 2. Cloud computing has unlimited potential. As the industry leader, Amazon's cloud computing can maintain a growth rate of 20%-30% for many years in the future. 3. The international ...

ARKK VS ARKW, ARKQ, ARKG, ARKF, How to choose ARK Innovation ETF?

Which ARK Innovation ETF is best? Let’s perform an Ark ETF review. Today, I will introduce to you the five actively managed ETFs in ARK INNOVATION. Let’s take a look at which types of companies they have invested in so that you can choose the industry you like to invest in. ARK INNOVATION was founded by Catherine Wood. This investment company is a revolutionary and innovative company that specializes in investment. Their company currently manages seven different types of ETFs, five of which are actively managed ETFs, and the other two One is an exponential passive ETF, Simply put, the biggest difference between these two ETFs is that for actively managed ETFs, they will frequently trade the company stocks in the fund, so the proportion of the company he holds will always change, while the index-type ETF is as they think. After purchasing the company, you will not be able to move it again. It is very similar to S&P500 or QQQ, except that the holding company is different. Then let...

PYPL Stock Forecast and Price Target 2021

Taking advantage of PayPal’s earnings report, let’s analyze PayPal’s latest situation and PayPal stock forecasts, especially for strong stocks like PayPal. How to buy stocks with few callbacks? PayPal issued a financial report. After the PayPal financial report came out, it rose by more than 7%, breaking a new high. PayPal's revenue First of all, let’s take a look at why PayPal has risen so well after the earnings report. PayPal’s earnings report is very dazzling. This earnings report is currently one of the strongest earnings reports in PayPal’s history. It has continuously refreshed the strongest earnings record. Let’s take a look at how good this financial report is. The number of new active users in the fourth quarter increased by 16 million, an increase of 72% over the same period a year ago. At present, PayPal’s total active users have reached 377 million. The growth of active users for the whole year of 2020 is 24%. Very beautiful user growth. Active merchants have also reac...

What is the meaning of NFT and NFT stocks?

Not long ago, Christie’s, a century-old auction house, successfully auctioned a sky-high price for NFT digital artworks, which eventually sold for more than US$69 million. What is the meaning of NFT? The full name of NFT is Non-Fungible Token, which is a non-homogeneous token, which can be understood as a genuine authentication certificate encrypted by blockchain technology. Because of its encrypted and unique characteristics, it is currently widely used in the field of digital art. As long as it is a digital version of art, everything can be NFT, including but not limited to pictures, music, games, videos, and even a single tweet can become NFT. Jack Dorsey, the founder, and CEO of Twitter posted the first tweet "Just setting up my Twitter" on Twitter, which was only 5 English words, and the price was as high as 2.9 million US dollars. The NFT boom is sweeping, and related concept stocks have already taken off. There are many more popular science introductions about NFT, wh...

Shopify stock forecast 2025：Is it worth buying?

In the last year, the stocks rose relatively well. Another sector is e-commerce. Whether it is Amazon, Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, SEA or vertical e-commerce platforms Etsy and Chewy, all of them have experienced huge gains, while another category has benefited from the e-commerce sector. The company is a website building tool company such as Shopify BigCommerce Holdings. Today I will talk about shopify, the leader of website building tools. First, let's briefly talk about shopify's business model. To put it simply, shopify is a fool-like website building platform. In the past, when a company wanted to build a corporate website, it generally needed to find a dedicated person to design and maintain the website. If you want to add shopping functions to the website, the cost of building the website will also increase. This is true for many small businesses and individual businesses. A very difficult thing. Shopify uses the SAAS model to provide websit...

Moderna stock forecast 2025： MRNA is worth buying for 5 reasons

Moderna was founded in 2009 and was established in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. Its main business is genetic engineering and focuses on the research and development of mRNA-derived drugs. The full name of mRNA is messenger RNA, pre-messenger RNA, a kind of immature single-stranded messenger ribonucleic acid, once it is completely processed, it is called "mature messenger RNA", or "mRNA". These drugs use mRNA as a treatment method and use mRNA as the basis to inject the developed synthetic mRNA into the patient's body so that the patient's own cells can obtain the ability to treat themselves. At present, the new crown vaccine being researched and developed by Moderna has an effective rate of 94.5%, so it has become one of the vaccines that are sold in large quantities all over the world. Cambridge, Massachusetts, is not only home to Harvard University but also a world-renowned hot spot for modern biomedicine. Despite such a "gorgeous background", ...

SQ, TDOC, VRTX: Cathie Wood is optimistic about doubling stocks

When Cathie Wood buys stocks, investors will follow her to buy, which seems to be the latest trend in the investment world. In the popular saying, following Cathie Wood, there is money to be made. Even some time ago due to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, technology stocks plummeted, and ARK funds suffered a frantic sell-off. Wood is still as stable as a mountain, and he issued a statement saying that everything was as early as we expected and was better than we expected. Technology stocks are a good time to buy bottoms and increase positions. Today, I will analyze Cathie Wood's heavy holdings from the company's fundamentals and future market prospects. Can it double in the long run? Square (ranked first in ARKK's innovative technology ETF) The financial technology giant Square is a revolutionary stock in the financial industry, breaking the traditional payment industry. Square is known for its seller ecosystem, which provides small businesses ...

FinanceLinkway

Search This Blog