No one can be 100% sure about the outlook for the US stock market. Instead of entangled in whether the bull market in US stocks will end, it is better to think about what lessons can be learned from this plunge.
Historically, due to the end of the summer market in September, U.S. stocks did not perform well. The plunge on Thursday sounded like a wake-up call for investors earlier. Be careful next week. Although Nasdaq is tolerant of faults The rate is high, but the up-and-down shock pattern has not changed, and there needs to be an established process.
Investing in stocks should take a long-term view, have a long-term investment mentality, don't care too much about the rise and fall of one or two days, and don't feel unhappy because of the turmoil of the stock market, which affects the judgment of stock buying and selling.
Today, let's take a look at how those familiar investment masters are invincible. The reason why masters become masters is that they have become masters after many stock market crashes. Let's get started. ,
1. Now speaking of the first one, Warren Buffett.
When the stock market crashed in 1987, Buffett may be the only investor in the United States who did not always pay attention to the stock market crash. He called the newspaper in the office and read the annual reports of listed companies. Do not look at the market, work as usual,
Afterward, someone asked Buffett what the stock market crash meant, Buffett, replied, perhaps it means that the stock market has risen too high in the past.
Buffett said that when the stock market fluctuates violently, the most important thing is to stay calm and stick to his investment principles. Buffett has always upheld the principle of value investment and implemented the profit method of long-term holdings.
Buffett mentioned in the annual shareholder meeting that, generally speaking, the market is rational, but the market occasionally suffers from panic problems. What investors need is to focus on the fundamentals and ignore the state of market panic. , This ability to ignore market panic cannot be done all at once. It requires a calm mind to make a sensible decision.
If you know the company before buying stocks and have confidence in its development, then the intrinsic value of the company will eventually return to investors, fund managers, who hold its stocks for a long time,
Buffett recently bought Barrick Gold stock, Why Barrick Gold stock price soars after Warren Buffett buys a stake?
2.Peter Lynch, let's take a look at how Peter Lynch behaves,
Peter Lynch has a unique trick, that is, the stock market has plummeted. He went to read history and recalled the 41 experiences of the stock market plummet in history. He often watched it and didn't panic in his heart.
Before the U.S. stock market crash in 1987, the Magellan Fund managed by Peter Lynch had a scale of 11 billion U.S. dollars. By October, only 7 billion remained.
After the stock market crash in 1987, he shifted the center of his allocation to growth stocks instead of cyclical stocks. Blue-chip stocks such as Connected Electrical Appliances became his major stocks.
He said that these stocks are severely undervalued, and there is no problem with future performance. He has added a lot of financial fund stocks to the bear market. Once the market improves, these stocks will increase greatly. As a result, although the loss in 1987 was heavy In 1988, Magellan slowed down and achieved 22.8% performance, and in 1989 it achieved 34.6% performance.
Peter Lynch concluded after the stock market crash, 1. Don't sell stocks at low prices due to panic, 2. Have firm confidence and courage in holding good company stocks, 3. Have the courage to buy good companies at low prices stock,
He believes that plummeting is the best opportunity to make big money. Huge wealth is often made in such a stock market crash. He also taught him a lesson that he must hold a certain percentage of cash at all times.
3. The next investment master, Philip Fisher, is known as the pioneer of modern investment theory and the investor who is the father of growth stock value investment strategies.
In 1931, he founded an investment management consulting company. In 1961 and 1963, he was hired. Taught advanced investment courses at Stanford University,
He believes that in a continuously declining market environment, do not buy those unfamiliar stocks too quickly, although, before the U.S. stock market crash in 1929, Fisher predicted that the stock market is about to fall, but unfortunately, he was not exempt. After careful study, I bought some seemingly cheap stocks, and eventually suffered heavy losses.
Fisher later concluded that the main factor that determines the stock price is not the PE of the year, but the expected PE in the next few years. If you can determine the possible performance of a stock in the next few years within a reasonable range, you can find profit. The shortcut to take huge profits,
4. Benjamin Graham, as Buffett’s mentor
Wrote <<Security Analysis>> which clearly distinguishes the difference between investment and speculation, and proposes a quantitative analysis method for common stock investment. He believes that as a successful investment Those should follow two investment principles, 1. Loss is strictly prohibited 2. Don’t forget a principle,
Graham's most famous method is the margin of safety method, that is, through the estimation of the intrinsic value of the company, the difference between its intrinsic value and the company's stock price is compared, and investment can be made when the difference reaches the margin of safety. He suggested that investors It takes several years to measure the performance of the company,
5. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Fund, believes that investors should not panic when faced with a decline in the stock market and should remain calm.
When the market falls, investors are always easy to decide to sell and yield. Fear is not a wise strategy. Until you no longer feel fear, you may need to sell. When you feel fear, you may need to buy it.
In October 2008, during the financial crisis, he published an article that understood a sample of what is happening at the moment. In the article, he said that the economy is not facing an ordinary recession. He shared that he learned from the market crash. The three things we have arrived at must not be overconfident, and must not be influenced by emotions. History is always repeated. Studying history can help to look forward to the future and grasp the actual difficulties of the market.
One of the keys to becoming a successful investor is to risk injections only on the investment objects you have a high degree of confidence, and fully diversify investment in these objects.
6. Jesse Livermore, a financial speculator Livermore, had great ups and downs in his life and went bankrupt four times.
In 1929, one person defeated Wall Street. In the stock market crash, he made 100 million US dollars by shorting. Livermore has also considered Is a pioneer in daily trading,
His method of operation is mainly the following points: 1. Emphasize on waiting for the opportunity, wait until the emergence of key points before proceeding, and keep on the sidelines and stand still at other times, 2. Emphasize taking advantage of the trend, if in the stock market, Seeing a dangerous signal, he always avoids it, and will never operate against the trend. It is necessary to add weight to the profitable stocks, rather than to flatten the losses on the loss-making stocks, 3. Use the pyramid, the investment method, First tentatively buy a small part of the stock, when the market verifies its judgment, then gradually increase the position, to be true and synchronized with the market.
7.Bill Miller, among all fund managers with public trading records in the world,
Bill Miller's performance is one of the best. The Legg Mason Value Trust Fund managed by Bill Miller was from 1991 to 2005. , Defeating the S&P 500 index for 15 consecutive years, has created an investment myth. It is such a phenomenon-level fund manager who has to bow to the market.
In just one year in 2006, he suffered a severe setback in the subprime mortgage crisis. At that time, the stocks of many outstanding companies fell sharply. He believed that this was a great opportunity to make money, so he bought against the trend, but did not expect the crisis to change. It has become a heavy bear market. Although its reverse operations have achieved many results in the past, it has suffered heavy losses this time.
The high-quality listed companies that used to be the market leaders, International Group, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Citigroup, etc., actually have such serious fundamental problems that they all fall.
In 2008, Bill Miller said in an interview that from the beginning, I had not properly estimated the severity of this liquidity crisis. Miller said in an open letter that any supernormal investment portfolio, in a certain period The success in time is due to the insurance of price misalignment. The market's estimate of this future number is wrong. We compare the market, the company's valuation, and our valuation of the company, using a combination of multiple factors Method to find out the price misalignment,
After seeing the success or failure of so many investment gurus in the stock market crash, then, what should ordinary investors do?
For the average investor, you must not follow the same cloud, or chase the rise and fall, keep a clear mind, and make an analysis of the stocks in your hands carefully and rationally. First, you must distinguish whether the stock market is affected by the decline in the stock market. , Short-term stocks are dominated by sentiment, especially some obvious unpopular stocks. The obvious characteristic of this kind of stock is to follow the market. Once it falls below the set stop price, it should immediately leave the market. Some stocks are manipulated by institutions. , When the market plummets continuously, the institution will also choose to fold. At this time, recognize the output and wait for the opportunity to re-enter the market with peace of mind.
Long-term stocks are directly proportional to the performance of the company. A sharp drop is a good time to buy. Investors should pay more attention to the company itself rather than the stock price. Some funds have heavy positions in stocks. There is no need to rush to rollover positions. Spread the cost,
I recommend the diversified investment. Don't put all your eggs in one basket, allocate as much investment as possible in different areas, strengthen the resilience of the investment portfolio, and enhance the ability to withstand shocks. If you do not have the stocks in your hands yet Loss, but has fallen back to the cost zone, it is best not to blindly kill the decline, you can observe a few more days, before making the final decision,
If the loss has become a fact, find out the reason, find the crux of the loss, reflect, summarize, and correct, the average investor wants to get rich overnight and wants to make quick money, so he frequently operates in the short-term, chasing the rise and killing the fall. Stop-loss will not stop profit, or the trading transactions are based on analysis and recommendation by others, or you can operate it casually. The discipline of stop loss and loss is the guarantee of your trading system. You are reluctant to stop profit and miss the best opportunity. Sink deeper,
Learn basic stock trading skills, such as basic K-line knowledge, simple moving averages, and classic indicators such as MACD and Kdj.
The basic market rules and basic trading skills must be clear. If you just follow the graphs in the textbook, you will be fooled.
This is summarized and improved in continuous practice, forming a trading system that suits you, so that you can win more and fewer losses in trading, and achieve long-term stable growth of funds. If there have been huge losses, you are most afraid of gambler psychology. The more you lose, the more you think. To win, the more you want to win, the more you lose. Abandon the demon stocks, embrace value stocks, high-quality stocks, and there will be opportunities to return to your capital in the future. The stock market crash is generally the best time to adjust positions, and the market's choice will eventually return to performance Come up, I hope everyone can grasp it.
In short, making money in the stock market is not an easy task. Maintain a good attitude, learn to control your desires, strive to keep the principal, and lower the expectation of making money. Don't think about the daily limit, when you want When you make a daily limit, you have fallen into the pit. In the stock market, you can not make money by fighting every day, but you need to seize the opportunity. This market is fair for everyone, with seven losses, two guarantees, one profit, It is a universally recognized rule. I hope that the above analysis will be helpful to everyone. The stock market is risky and investment needs to be cautious.
Just a small correction - it's Ray Dalio, not Reidario.
ReplyDeleteThanks for correcting!
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