NFLX stock forecast 2025: plummeted 22% after the earnings report.

Time to talk about Netflix, which plummeted 22% after the earnings report.

First of all, Netflix's financial report this time does have its thunderous place, but part of the reason for the 22% drop in one breath is because the market sentiment has been very bad recently. At this time, the financial report thunderous will be punished more than usual. It is a wake-up call for companies that are about to report financial reports in the future, so we try to hold the stocks in the hands of companies with relatively stable historical financial reports and try to balance our positions as much as possible, to reduce the risk of financial report storms. After all, this quarter In a more dangerous period, back to the point.

Let's take a look at Netflix's financial report this time. In the fourth quarter of 2021, Netflix's EPS was $1.33, exceeding analysts' estimates of $0.82, and revenue was just in line with expectations, with $7.71 billion, an increase of 16% year-on-year. %, 0.03% higher than analysts' expectations, and the global net member number increased by 8.28 million, exceeding the expected 8.19 million, so on the surface, the performance of the fourth quarter of 2021 is not bad, in line with expected.

If so, why did it plummet after the market? In fact, the problem lies in the membership growth guidance. Yes, this time the membership growth guidance that Wall Street cares about most has gone wrong again, that is, the membership growth guidance is too far from analysts' expectations. The first quarter of 2022 Net member growth is expected to be 2.5 million, which is a year-on-year decrease of 37.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 69.8%. Most importantly, this is significantly lower than the analyst's previous estimate of 6.93 million. The rate is 63.9%, so it is obvious that the membership growth guidance given by Netflix this time is far from the analysts' expectations, which means that the previous management and the market communicated incorrectly, causing the market to mistake Netflix for this year. The growth of members of the company can continue, but the actual situation is far from the imagination.

Therefore, after the financial report came out, the stock price was naturally severely punished. After all, the membership growth guidance of 63.9% lower than expected is not a small amount. In fact, this time Netflix's financial report is thunderous, and the management's responsibility is still quite large because Netflix has said before. Apple and Disney will not affect their growth, but this week's earnings report said that the first quarter of this year's membership growth guidance fell short of expectations because the competition was too fierce, and too many companies launched their own streaming services. Fei's growth was negatively impacted by competition.

Netflix basically denied the stories it told the market before, which directly made the market start to worry about Netflix's future growth story, and it was one of the reasons for this crash. Of course, we also knew for a long time that Netflix was The competition in the industry is fierce, but when the words come from the management's own mouth, the nature and the market's interpretation are very different, especially when the company's management denied the expectations that they had given before, but to To make up for the lack of membership growth, Netflix continued to increase the price of membership fees. Last week, Netflix continued to increase the basic package to $9.99 a month, the standard package from the previous $13.99 to the current $15.99 a month, and the advanced package from $15.99. The previous $17.99 has been increased to the current $19.99 a month. After the monthly fee increases, the income brought by each member will increase, so that even if the membership growth slows down, the revenue and EPS growth will continue. However, this year First-quarter revenue and margin guidance were still below analysts' expectations, and Netflix's membership growth remains the market's top priority.

This has always been the case in the past, so only when membership growth exceeds expectations or recovers in the future, will Wall Street continue to pay the bill, but the difficulty is that the competition in the streaming media industry is very intense, and any company wants to come in, so no It’s just Netflix, other competitors like Disney+ are also struggling. This industry can feel the pressure of competition more than others. It feels that there is not enough meat for everyone to eat, and this industry is more about film and television works. Instead of technology, the growth of Netflix members may not be very stable in the future, unless they can continue to launch blockbuster works, the main reason I personally did not invest in Netflix is that the industry is too competitive.

Streaming media companies rely too much on the performance of their works. Unlike technology companies, which have a technical moat, Netflix basically relies on IP or good works to maintain its development, but for me, this content industry is not. It's too stable, because if Netflix can't produce good works in a quarter in the future, then their membership growth and income will be greatly affected, and Netflix's membership growth has always been unstable, their guidelines for membership growth It’s not just one or two times that it’s lower than expected. Every time Netflix’s earnings report has a problem with membership growth, the stock price will plummet, so I have never dared to invest in Netflix.

Also, my personal style still prefers companies with technological moats. Investing in companies with hard-core technology will make me feel more at ease and make it easier for me to fall asleep. Of course, the above is just my Personal point of view, everyone should follow their own investment philosophy and style. If you are interested in Netflix, I don’t think you need to rush to pick up the flying knife in the short term, because the entire stock market is not very friendly to technology stocks now. Technology giants Recently, it has begun to be unbearable. The market is still afraid of raising interest rates, shrinking the balance sheet, and inflation, and Netflix has also fallen below the big support of $460 in the past year and a half. It is very difficult to recover in the short term, so I don't think it is necessary to rush to increase Netflix. For the time being, we can observe it for a while. Anyway, its momentum will not be very strong in the short term, and the rebound may not be very high. Moreover, Netflix's current stock price also contains a lot of panics. When the panic is relatively large, the support may not really be able to hold, let alone Netflix, even the support of the broader market may not be It's very reliable, but if you have to say a price, you may be able to carry it at the two prices of $335 and $251.

Comments

VRTX stock forecast 2025: Vertex is undervalued

Let's look at some biotech companies with stable cash flow and currently undervalued value stocks as targets for diversified portfolios. The company I shared today, called Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), is dedicated to the development of rare diseases, especially Cystic Fibrosis (CF). I have always had high respect for the rare disease group of pharmaceutical companies in the disease category. In addition, in the future, gene and cell therapies are subverting the role of rare diseases in the pharmaceutical industry, making rare diseases no longer uncommon. It's tasteless, but a field full of the future. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. was established in 1989 by Joshua Boger and Kevin Kinsella. is headquartered in Boston. At that time, several very good research and development companies were established in the United States, including the aforementioned Regeneron, Gilead, and today's Vertex. Vertex In the past, he devoted himself to the development of small molecule drugs, wh...

Investors have begun to switch back to traditional growth stocks

On Thursday, the stock prices of Cisco, Alphabet, and IBM hit new highs. But more importantly, the previously unpopular speculative growth stocks, including stocks bought by many ARK funds, have now begun to rebound. How is this going? Investors' perspective on the market is changing. In the first quarter of this year, mainstream voices in the market believe that the economy will restart strongly, bond yields will rise, and inflation may become a problem later this year. After the end of the first quarter, these expectations were only partially fulfilled. The U.S. economy has indeed restarted strongly, but bond yields fell in the first quarter instead of rising because investors began to believe: 1) Inflation and supply chain disruption may indeed be "temporary", as the Fed insists; 2) The second and third quarters will be the highest points of stock returns and economic growth. Alec Young, a chief investment officer of Tactical Alpha, said: “...

Bitcoin crashed! In a word of Musk, the digital currency plummeted!

Ethereum is thriving, what logic? The world's second-largest digital currency, Ethereum, is continuing to challenge the influence of Bitcoin by its "functionality". On the morning of May 13th, the price of Bitcoin plummeted by more than 13% and once fell below the $50,000 mark. As a challenger to Bitcoin, Ethereum fell by about 8% and continued to narrow its decline. The previous day, Ether The market rose by 6% during the intraday session, with a market value exceeding US$500 billion, and its price hitting a record high. In the past 6 months, the price of Ethereum has risen by as much as 8 times, out of the independent market, has far outperformed the continued consolidation of Bitcoin. At present, the share of Ethereum in digital currencies' total global market value has risen to 18%, while the weight of Bitcoin's market value has been cut in the past two years, and the current market value has dropped to 38%. On the morning of May 13, there w...

BABA stock forecast 2025: The failure of Ant Financial's IPO

Ant Financial’s IPO was canceled, causing Alibaba’s share price to fall, Alibaba has been unfavorable this year. First, the cancellation of Ant Financial's IPO indirectly caused Alibaba's stock price to fall, and now there is an antitrust investigation led by Alibaba, which caused Alibaba's stock price to plummet by 15% in a single day. From the highest point in October, the stock price of 319 dollars has fallen by as much as 30% to 222 dollars. From the perspective of K-line, Alibaba has reached the Oversold area, and it will rebound upward in the short term. From the perspective of valuation, Alibaba’s valuation is as high as US$388, which is 74% of the current share price of US$222. Value-added space, so it seems that whether it is viewed from the short-term K-line or the long-term valuation, now is a good time to buy the bottom of Alibaba. Before investing, I will analyze and analyze the root cause of the disadvantage of Alibaba this time, because if this problem is not...

ASML stock forecast 2025: is it time to buy now?

Hello everyone, recently, because the market has a lot of fears about rising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet, the Nasdaq as a whole has fallen a lot, and each support has basically been broken one after another. The general price has also broken, so there is no good signal to increase positions in the short term. It may be safer to hold cash first and wait until the decline begins to slow down a little or see a really cost-effective price before considering adding positions. However, the long-term bull market in the future will not end because of this year's interest rate hike, and cash will only become more and more worthless in the long run. In the short-term continuous decline of the stock market, we must put our minds in a positive state. At the same time, we must properly organize our thoughts and positions, prepare bullets, and use this time to do our homework for the stocks we are interested in. In this way, when a good price appears in the future, you will be...

Will China's economy recover as the epidemic is under control?

During the Chinese Spring Festival, novel coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, and the Chinese stock market was hit hard. Subsequently, the Chinese government quickly took strict measures to block Wuhan, a city with a population of tens of thousands of people, to prevent the further spread of the epidemic, and to take corresponding epidemic prevention measures in other cities. When the worst of the epidemic had already occurred, the Chinese stock market quickly rebounded. As the number of infections continues to decline, China's Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise further. Sars Period Looking back on similar events in the past, the SARS epidemic in 2003, the stock market also made a short-term decline, and then the SARS epidemic was brought under control, the stock market immediately went up for a long time. According to past historical data, the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the stock market may be short-lived. China Fund Capital Flow Howeve...

AMD stock forecast 2025: Q2 is expected to perform strongly

Before the US stock market on July 19, US technology stocks continued their decline last Friday, and AMD's stock price also continued to fall. AMD will announce the results of the second quarter of 2021 on July 27. The market expects this performance to be strong, so this round of decline may be a great opportunity to buy the stock. financial indicator Due to the strong market demand for CPU and graphics cards in 2021, AMD’s revenue is expected to exceed the maximum value of the financial guidance. AMD’s C&G business is expected to grow the most because higher-priced AMD Ryzen and high-end AMD Radeon sales continue to increase. In terms of gross profit margin, the market expects AMD's gross profit margin in Q2 2021 will increase by 47% year-on-year. If the average selling prices of CPUs and GPUs continue to rise in Q2 of 2021, and the ASPs of CPUs and GPUs will increase in Q1 of 2021, the gross profit margin may also increase by 48%. CPU market sh...

Teladoc stock forecast 2025: Is it time to buy TDOC?

TDOC's performance exceeded expectations. Why did the performance decline after the announcement? Teladoc (TDOC) reported quarterly earnings of US$0.13 per share, which exceeded the consensus estimate of a loss of US$0.57 per share. In the same period last year, it had a loss of US$0.4 per share. The earnings of this financial report far exceeded expectations. In the last quarter, people expected this telemedicine service company to lose 0.25 US dollars per share, but the actual loss per share was 0.27 US dollars, which was not as good as expected at the time. In the past four quarters, TDOC exceeded expectations twice. The management stated that the company's current momentum in various channels and regions should not be underestimated in the conference call. It has raised its annual revenue guidance to 20 million U.S. dollars, which is expected to be between 1.97 billion and 2.02 billion U.S. dollars. In the first quarter, the comp...

Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high. The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range. The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said...

Bear market coming, gold(GLD) assets become essential

The economic data of the global economic powers have been deteriorating, entering the bear market stage of the economy, and people have become more cautious when choosing asset investment. We should choose investment products with a low correlation coefficient with economic performance and investment products suitable for the current economic cycle. Investors should pay more attention to foreign exchange and commodity markets so that they can add value to your assets. Among many assets, anti-inflation commodities such as gold have become essential assets. Take gold as an example. For many years, gold has been regarded as an anti-inflation commodity by international capital markets and has been regarded as an important asset hedging tool by investors. There is also a saying, "The world bought gold during turbulent times." From basic political theory, we know that gold is not currency, and the currency is naturally gold and silver. Although gold has withdrawn from ...

FinanceLinkway

Search This Blog