Skip to main content

Why has international oil(USO) prices plummeted?



As OPEC and Russia failed in negotiations and could not reach an agreement to reduce production, Saudi Arabia issued a comprehensive production increase announcement. Russia followed Saudi Arabia to increase production. 

Due to the sharp increase in oil supply, international oil prices plummeted, and US stocks were affected by the spread of the epidemic, and international oil prices The plunge, the U.S. stock market plummeted, triggering multiple fuses.

S&P500 Index
S&P500 Index

Oil is a commodity whose price is affected by supply and demand. When oil production increases, supply increases, prices fall, and at the same time affected by the epidemic, demand decreases, and prices also fall. Oil supply increases and demand decreases, which is the main cause of the plunge in international oil prices.

In terms of oil supply, since the United States developed shale oil, US oil production has become the world's largest. The production cost of shale oil is more than US $ 40, which is the highest cost. The advantage of shale oil is that it is flexible in exploitation. When the price of oil is high, the United States will increase the production of shale oil. 

Excessive international oil prices are not good for Saudi Arabia: Excessive oil prices have led to the development of a large number of shale oil wells, and excessive supply of shale oil will reduce Saudi Arabia's market share. In this situation, Saudi Arabia will lose control of oil prices. As a result, Saudi Arabia's increase in oil production has caused oil prices to fall.

In terms of oil demand, falling oil demand will also cause oil prices to fall. On the one hand, with the popularity of Tesla's electric vehicles, new energy vehicles continue to develop, and the development of more clean energy will reduce the demand for oil as an energy source. 

On the other hand, affected by the global spread of the epidemic, there will be more shutdowns and productions in countries around the world, which will also lead to reduced demand for oil. Although petroleum as an industrial raw material still has many uses, the demand for industrial raw materials cannot keep up with the increase in oil production, which leads to the inability of oil prices to rise.

With the increase in supply and decrease in demand, the international oil price has plummeted. The analysis from the fundamentals is not complicated. The political level is the trigger of this situation.

WTI Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil

For oil-demanding countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, and other countries, the decline in international oil prices is favorable and can reduce the cost of oil imports by countries. 

For Tesla electric vehicles or the new energy vehicle industry, falling international oil prices may be unfavorable. However, electric vehicles are the future development trend, and international oil prices will not continue to fall, nor will they hinder the development of the electric vehicle industry for a long time.

As an investor, when international oil prices are underestimated and oil prices are cheaper than water, investing in oil-related assets may be a buying opportunity that can add value to the asset portfolio.

Popular posts from this blog

Palantir stock forecast 2025: What kind of company is PLTR?

 PLTR introduced today may be the most controversial company in the current market, not one of them.  As a stock, he is the faith stock of many retail investors. Those who believe in it generally believe that its stock price can double at least ten times in the future.  Catherine Wood, the president of the ARK Fund, nicknamed "the light of retail investors," continues to buy the stock, which is also highly sought after on the WSB forum; on the contrary, most analysts on Wall Street are not optimistic about its development.  The average target price at the end of 2021 is still 10% lower than the current stock price.  As a company, its revenue is growing steadily and rapidly, with an annual growth rate of about 30% per year. However, the company has never achieved profitability in the past 20 years since its establishment.  As a high-tech enterprise, the company is full of various genius ideas and the top talents in the industry, but they are mostly engaged i...

XPEV stock forecast 2025: can selling software make money?

The new energy vehicle industry has a relatively high degree of attention, that is, Xiaopeng(XPEV) released its first-quarter 2021 financial report.  The general performance data of XPEV are as follows:  The total delivery volume reached 13,340 units, a year-on-year increase of 487.4%.  Total revenue was USD 450 million, a year-on-year increase of 616.1%.  Auto sales revenue was US$429 million, an increase of 655.2% year-on-year.  The gross profit margin was 11.2%, compared with -4.8% and 7.4% in the same period last year and the fourth quarter of 2020, respectively.  The gross profit margin of automobile sales was 10.1%, compared with -5.3% and 6.8% in the same period last year and the fourth quarter of 2020.  To be honest, this data itself is not eye-catching in comparison with Weilai and ideals. Although for officials, this quarter’s financial report has ushered in two major milestones.  One is that gross profit margin continues to improve and ...

PLTR stock forecast 2025: Long-term holding growth stocks Palantir

Today we are talking about Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR) the long-term growth stocks.  I have been paying attention to Palantir for a long time before the listing, but after the direct listing, the stock price fluctuated greatly, and the market's valuation faced great divergence. In addition, Palantir chose 80% of the shares to lift the ban three trading days after the financial report.  Therefore, I am also prepared to look at the market's reaction after the ban is lifted.  However, the stock price did not fall sharply due to the large-scale lifting of the ban. In this round of growth stock valuations, the decline of Palantir is not too large, at about 20%, but the valuation is more attractive than before.  From a perspective, I think Palantir is a company worth holding for a long time.  Palantir was founded in 2003 as a big data company with founders Peter Thiel, Alex Karp, Joe Lonsdale, Stephen Cohen, and Nathan Gettings.  Among them, the third and fo...

7 great investors' operating strategies to deal with the stock!

No one can be 100% sure about the outlook for the US stock market. Instead of entangled in whether the bull market in US stocks will end, it is better to think about what lessons can be learned from this plunge. Historically, due to the end of the summer market in September, U.S. stocks did not perform well. The plunge on Thursday sounded like a wake-up call for investors earlier. Be careful next week. Although Nasdaq is tolerant of faults The rate is high, but the up-and-down shock pattern has not changed, and there needs to be an established process. Investing in stocks should take a long-term view, have a long-term investment mentality, don't care too much about the rise and fall of one or two days, and don't feel unhappy because of the turmoil of the stock market, which affects the judgment of stock buying and selling. Today, let's take a look at how those familiar investment masters are invincible. The reason why masters become masters is that they have become masters ...

Three stages of bull and bear markets!

The bull and bear markets of the stock market are traditional indicators of the business cycle. As an investor, distinguishing bull and bear markets in the stock market and grasping the long-term development direction of the market can avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations and the impact of complex market information.  For example, the market fluctuations brought by news information, the sudden and sharp drop in market prices, and the impact of investor sentiment have led to making wrong investment trading decisions. The stock market is in a bull market, most asset prices will continue to rise, and the stock market is in a bear market, most asset prices will continue to fall. Both bull and bear markets are divided into three stages, so how to tell whether the stock market is in a bull or bear market, and at what stage. S&P500 Index What is a bull market? In the first stage of the bull market, after the market economy was in recession, the stock price fe...

TSM Stock Forecast and Price Target 2021

Today, I will analyze TSMC stocks in-depth with you. In the semiconductor sector, TSMC has always been my most promising stock. TSMC has just announced its results for the fourth quarter of 2020. At the same time, there are new developments in the entire chip industry recently. Therefore, today I will combine the financial report and chips. The latest developments in the industry to analyze the trend of TSMC stocks, First of all, we analyze TSMC’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 financial reports to see what are the key points worthy of investors’ attention. First, TSMC’s fourth-quarter revenue and profitability are very good.  Compared with the outlook for Q4 in Q3, the outlook at that time was US$12.4-12.7 billion, and the actual revenue was US$12.68 billion. Actual revenue As the upper limit of the outlook, the gross profit margin outlook is 51.5%-53.5%, while the actual gross profit margin is 54%, which is better than the outlook. The operating net profit margin is expected t...

The stock market entering a bear market?

On March 6, 2020, the US stock market continued its decline today after a few days of rebound. Is this the beginning of a bear market in the stock market? Next, let's analyze one important indicator of entering the bear market, Treasury bonds yield. What is the yield of Treasury bonds? Treasury bonds are a tool issued by the state to raise funds. When the bonds are issued, they promise to repay the principal and interest on a specified date. The ratio of the return of Treasury bonds to the principal invested is the return of Treasury bonds.  The main factors affecting bond yield include coupon rate, maturity, face value, holding time, purchase price, and sale price. Rising bond yields and falling bond prices mean investors are selling bonds, turning to invest activities, or entering the stock market. In a healthy economic environment, the longer the Treasury bonds, the higher the bond yield. Because short-term bonds are more liquid, investors are willing to accept lower ...

What is a spac stock in the Investment market?

Let me talk about SPAC first.  SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) means "Special Purpose Acquisition Company", also known as "Blank Check" or "Shell Company".  As the name suggests, this company has no actual business, and its essence is a financial innovation tool that provides companies with listing services.  More simply, SPAC is a shell resource company established by professional institutions such as investment banks and fund companies as promoters.  The sole purpose of this company's listing is to find the target company, through reverse mergers and acquisitions, to achieve the target company's listing and financing.  Most people pay attention to SPAC from 2020, but in fact, SPAC is nothing new.  The SPAC structure was first born in the 1990s and was pioneered by David Nabers, who worked for the Wall Street investment bank GKN.  However, in the past few decades, compared with traditional IPOs, the number of SPACs is very limited, and ...

Many companies will China close in 2020?

Starting in March, all walks of life in China began to resume work. People stayed at home for more than two months. Many people's moods changed from tension to leisure, and now they are anxious.  It's not just the bosses who are anxious. Many employees find that their rents and mortgages are still being paid, the holidays are extended, they can't go to work, and their salaries aren't. Whenever there is no money it is a big problem. More than 700 companies closed down in February, but getting fewer wages is also better than the company suddenly closing down. In February, more than 700 companies have closed down, and this number should be exceeded.  Statistics show that more than 55% of catering businesses in China have resumed work, but compared to the same period last year, affected by the epidemic, 78% of catering companies have lost more than 100% of their operating income, and another 16% of them have lost over 70%.  This year's sudden outbreak, the impact...

INTC stock forecast 2025: Intel's acquisition of SiFive

SiFive, a chip design start-up company based on the RISC-V instruction set architecture, has received an acquisition intention from investor Intel.  A person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named, said that Intel has offered to buy SiFive for more than $2 billion.  RISC-V with x86 and Arm  As we all know, Intel dominates the industry leader in x86 architecture chip technology, while SiFive focuses on open-source RISC-V technology and employs several founding members of the RISC-V architecture.  For a long time, the field of CPU instruction set architecture has been dominated by x86 and Arm. Since RISC-V was born at the University of California, Berkeley in 2010, it has gradually formed a certain competitive landscape with Arm after more than ten years of development.  With the gradual refinement of the application field, the model of one chip making the world has become a thing of the past. Facing the hot AI and Internet of Things market, RISC-V i...