Skip to main content

Why has international oil(USO) prices plummeted?



As OPEC and Russia failed in negotiations and could not reach an agreement to reduce production, Saudi Arabia issued a comprehensive production increase announcement. Russia followed Saudi Arabia to increase production. 

Due to the sharp increase in oil supply, international oil prices plummeted, and US stocks were affected by the spread of the epidemic, and international oil prices The plunge, the U.S. stock market plummeted, triggering multiple fuses.

S&P500 Index
S&P500 Index

Oil is a commodity whose price is affected by supply and demand. When oil production increases, supply increases, prices fall, and at the same time affected by the epidemic, demand decreases, and prices also fall. Oil supply increases and demand decreases, which is the main cause of the plunge in international oil prices.

In terms of oil supply, since the United States developed shale oil, US oil production has become the world's largest. The production cost of shale oil is more than US $ 40, which is the highest cost. The advantage of shale oil is that it is flexible in exploitation. When the price of oil is high, the United States will increase the production of shale oil. 

Excessive international oil prices are not good for Saudi Arabia: Excessive oil prices have led to the development of a large number of shale oil wells, and excessive supply of shale oil will reduce Saudi Arabia's market share. In this situation, Saudi Arabia will lose control of oil prices. As a result, Saudi Arabia's increase in oil production has caused oil prices to fall.

In terms of oil demand, falling oil demand will also cause oil prices to fall. On the one hand, with the popularity of Tesla's electric vehicles, new energy vehicles continue to develop, and the development of more clean energy will reduce the demand for oil as an energy source. 

On the other hand, affected by the global spread of the epidemic, there will be more shutdowns and productions in countries around the world, which will also lead to reduced demand for oil. Although petroleum as an industrial raw material still has many uses, the demand for industrial raw materials cannot keep up with the increase in oil production, which leads to the inability of oil prices to rise.

With the increase in supply and decrease in demand, the international oil price has plummeted. The analysis from the fundamentals is not complicated. The political level is the trigger of this situation.

WTI Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil

For oil-demanding countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, and other countries, the decline in international oil prices is favorable and can reduce the cost of oil imports by countries. 

For Tesla electric vehicles or the new energy vehicle industry, falling international oil prices may be unfavorable. However, electric vehicles are the future development trend, and international oil prices will not continue to fall, nor will they hinder the development of the electric vehicle industry for a long time.

As an investor, when international oil prices are underestimated and oil prices are cheaper than water, investing in oil-related assets may be a buying opportunity that can add value to the asset portfolio.

Popular posts from this blog

How to judge the market entry signal?

buy sell Most people lose money when investing in stocks. One of the biggest reasons is that they buy stocks at the wrong time. Why did they buy the stock at the wrong time? Facts have proved that many people do not know that stocks only rise 1/4 times, and that is the easiest time to make money. And in another 3/4 of the time, making money is difficult, and losing money is easier.  Today, I will share how to choose the right time to buy stocks. I hope you can see the final result because, in the end, I will share with you how to use simple technical indicators to help us find the exact input time. First of all, everyone must know a concept, whether it is a stock market or a stock, there are four stages. Let us take the stock market as an example. The first stage is called the "next stage".  At this time, the market has just experienced a sharp decline, and most investors in the market are not interested in the stock market, because their memories are still stuck in t...

AMD stock forecast 2025: Q2 is expected to perform strongly

Before the US stock market on July 19, US technology stocks continued their decline last Friday, and AMD's stock price also continued to fall.  AMD will announce the results of the second quarter of 2021 on July 27. The market expects this performance to be strong, so this round of decline may be a great opportunity to buy the stock.  financial indicator  Due to the strong market demand for CPU and graphics cards in 2021, AMD’s revenue is expected to exceed the maximum value of the financial guidance. AMD’s C&G business is expected to grow the most because higher-priced AMD Ryzen and high-end AMD Radeon sales continue to increase.  In terms of gross profit margin, the market expects AMD's gross profit margin in Q2 2021 will increase by 47% year-on-year.  If the average selling prices of CPUs and GPUs continue to rise in Q2 of 2021, and the ASPs of CPUs and GPUs will increase in Q1 of 2021, the gross profit margin may also increase by 48%.  CPU market sh...

Cloudflare's 4Q 2021 earnings report

 Just took a look at Cloudflare's (NET) 4Q 2021 earnings report. Cloudflare is in an area that covers several hot spots, including content delivery networks, i.e. CDNs, cloud computing, and cybersecurity. For the Cloudflare quarterly report, here is a summary: 1) Revenue of $194 million (then expected 4Q revenue in the range of $184 to $185 million), up 52% year-over-year ($172 million in 2021, up 51% year-over-year). 2) The number of customers continues to grow rapidly, with the total number of customers has reached 1416 (1260 in the previous quarter). 3) Non-GAAP gross margin was 79.2% vs. 78.1% in the same quarter last year (vs. 79.2% in 3Q vs. 77.3% in the same quarter last year.) Non-GAAP net income has started to turn around, meaning it has started to be profitable. 4) Revenue is expected to be in the range of $205 to $206 million in 4Q. That works out to about 6% YoY growth. Cloudflare had good results this time, beating its previous guidance. Revenues are still growing at a...

NVDA Stock Forecast and Analysis: 3 opportunities and 2 risks

What are the 3 opportunities and 2 risks for NVIDIA? How to invest in NVIDIA stock? NVIDIA(NVDA) stock buy or sell? NVIDIA Stock Forecast and Analysis 2021 First, because in the third quarter of 2020, NVIDIA's revenue and profit have set record highs. Among them, revenue was 4.73 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 57% year-on-year, and analysts expected it to be 4.41 billion U.S. dollars. NVIDIA's revenue Earnings per share were 2.91 US dollars, analysts expected to be 2.57 US dollars. It can be seen that both revenue and profit have exceeded analysts’ expectations. NVIDIA expects its fourth-quarter revenue to be US$4.8 billion, in line with analysts’ expectations of US$4.42 billion. Second, the current market value of NVIDIA is much higher than the combined market value of Intel and AMD. From the beginning of the year to now, NVIDIA has risen by 123%, AMD has risen by 87%, Intel has fallen by 24%, TSMC has risen by 64%, and the Nasdaq has risen by 33%. It can be seen that bo...

What is a spac stock in the Investment market?

Let me talk about SPAC first.  SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) means "Special Purpose Acquisition Company", also known as "Blank Check" or "Shell Company".  As the name suggests, this company has no actual business, and its essence is a financial innovation tool that provides companies with listing services.  More simply, SPAC is a shell resource company established by professional institutions such as investment banks and fund companies as promoters.  The sole purpose of this company's listing is to find the target company, through reverse mergers and acquisitions, to achieve the target company's listing and financing.  Most people pay attention to SPAC from 2020, but in fact, SPAC is nothing new.  The SPAC structure was first born in the 1990s and was pioneered by David Nabers, who worked for the Wall Street investment bank GKN.  However, in the past few decades, compared with traditional IPOs, the number of SPACs is very limited, and ...

How to judge the diffusive horn pattern ?

As an investment trader, you must understand the use of chart technology analysis to determine the position of market transactions. Now let's talk about a common pattern in chart technical analysis, which is the diffuse speaker pattern. Diffusion horn patterns are different from trend patterns and horizontal patterns.  Diffusion horn patterns are more difficult to judge than trend patterns and horizontal patterns, and often cause losses to investment traders. So, how do investment traders judge the spreading horn pattern and make favorable investment transactions? S&P500 Index The price trend of the diffusive horn pattern.  When the price rises over some time, then the price falls, and falls below the recent low, then rises, and rises through the last high. It keeps expanding in two directions. If we connect the high point and the low point with straight lines, respectively, we can show a horn shape, so it is called a diffuse horn shape.  Because of this, some i...

AMZN stock forecast 2025: Amazon's main advantages

  On July 6, after the US stock market opened, Amazon broke through $3,600, a record high.  Amazon has been oscillating between 3000-3500 US dollars in the past year, and the stock price finally broke through.  Amazon is a stock that has a high valuation from PE but is seriously undervalued by the market from the perspective of its development prospects. It is one of my favorite technology stocks.  Amazon's main advantages are:  1. Amazon's current GMV is only half that of Alibaba.  Looking at the current penetration rate of e-commerce in China and the future penetration rate of e-commerce in the United States, we will find that Amazon e-commerce has huge growth potential in the United States.  Amazon e-commerce is far from saturated in the United States.  2. Cloud computing has unlimited potential.  As the industry leader, Amazon's cloud computing can maintain a growth rate of 20%-30% for many years in the future.  3. The international ...

Can Apple(AAPL) icar end the dominance of Tesla(TSLA)?

Beginning in 2014, Apple started a plan for electric vehicles developed by "Project Titan". In the Apple electric car project, in the past few years, internal conflicts, leadership issues, and other issues have affected the entire project. The rumors in 2016 even hinted that Apple had shelved plans for the car, but Apple has overcome the development difficulties and still plans to develop consumers Car, The Apple car project has changed the leadership many times, and hundreds of employees have been laid off during the development process. In the past few years, there have been rumors that Apple has shifted its focus to autonomous driving software instead of just a car. In June 2017, Apple CEO Tim Cook publicly talked about Apple’s work on autonomous driving software, which rarely confirmed Apple’s development work, because Apple usually does not share the details it is studying, but when it comes to cars When it comes to software, due to legal restrictions, it has to apply fo...

ROKU stock forecast 2025: worth holding for a long time

1.The Roku Channel (TRC).  The Roku Channel (TRC) will be a huge driving force for the company's growth. I think the market has not yet realized the huge potential of TRC. Currently, TRC is watched by 70 million people, which has doubled from last year. The growth rate is astonishing. Therefore, the ability of advertising monetization is getting stronger and stronger.   ROKU mentioned in the Q1 quarterly report that if content providers promote their subscriptions in TRC, the effect will be twice as good as just on the ROKU platform. This fully shows the extremely strong marketing capabilities of TRC. The exclusive content of ROKU license Cipher has also become the most popular show in TRC, and then ROKU original packaged after the acquisition of Quibi will be launched, which will further increase the user viscosity of TRC.  Roku's CEO said that the TRC flywheel has been turned, and the market seems to have not had time to digest this benefit. SVOD on the market i...

PYPL Stock Forecast and Price Target 2021

Taking advantage of PayPal’s earnings report, let’s analyze PayPal’s latest situation and PayPal stock forecasts, especially for strong stocks like PayPal. How to buy stocks with few callbacks? PayPal issued a financial report. After the PayPal financial report came out, it rose by more than 7%, breaking a new high. PayPal's revenue First of all, let’s take a look at why PayPal has risen so well after the earnings report. PayPal’s earnings report is very dazzling. This earnings report is currently one of the strongest earnings reports in PayPal’s history. It has continuously refreshed the strongest earnings record. Let’s take a look at how good this financial report is. The number of new active users in the fourth quarter increased by 16 million, an increase of 72% over the same period a year ago. At present, PayPal’s total active users have reached 377 million. The growth of active users for the whole year of 2020 is 24%. Very beautiful user growth. Active merchants have also reac...