Skip to main content

VRTX stock forecast 2025: Vertex is undervalued

vrtx

Let's look at some biotech companies with stable cash flow and currently undervalued value stocks as targets for diversified portfolios.

 The company I shared today, called Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), is dedicated to the development of rare diseases, especially Cystic Fibrosis (CF).


I have always had high respect for the rare disease group of pharmaceutical companies in the disease category. In addition, in the future, gene and cell therapies are subverting the role of rare diseases in the pharmaceutical industry, making rare diseases no longer uncommon. It's tasteless, but a field full of the future.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. was established in 1989 by Joshua Boger and Kevin Kinsella.

is headquartered in Boston. At that time, several very good research and development companies were established in the United States, including the aforementioned Regeneron, Gilead, and today's Vertex.

 Vertex In the past, he devoted himself to the development of small molecule drugs, which are chemical compound drugs.


And the founder Joshua Boger at that time was the pioneer of structure drug design and was the first company to use Rational drug design, meaning that he was committed to the research of drug targets (3D structure, druggability, etc.), and then made drugs. Screening, and optimization of candidate drugs.

Vertex was the first to make infectious drugs, such as hepatitis C drugs. Later, I found the company's Driver in cystic fibrosis (cystic fibrosis). It can be said that it is the monopolist of cystic fibrosis (Cystic fibrosis).

Vertex Pharmaceutical, to be honest, although there are 3-4 kinds of drugs on the market, they are all for the treatment of cystic fibrosis CF. It is inevitable to be called a single-indication company by the market, which means that they only have products for cystic fibrosis CF.

Before the Cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulators of Vertex came out, general CF could only treat symptoms, and CFTR modulators are really specific treatments in essence, which is a good gospel for patients.

 And VRTX's recent 3-in-1 drug Trikafta was launched at the end of 2019.


There are approximately 83,000 patients with CF among European and American Caucasians (among Americans, Europeans, Australians, and Canadians). After the 3-in-1 drug was launched in 2019, Vertex could only treat about 50% of CF patients. Treat 90% of patients.

 Let VRTX's 2020 revenue YOY have a 55% growth.

 It is estimated that after receiving benefits in various places in 2021, 2021 should be able to maintain a YOY growth of about 8-10%.

 At present, there are almost no threats to CFTR competitors in the market, and the fixed-dose combination patent of Trikafta can still reach 2025. I think CFTR will have a stable revenue contribution in the next 5 years, about single-digit growth.

As a market observer, especially for biotech companies. What we have to judge is, what exactly will Vertex's new driver be in the next five years? What can be based on CF Franchise and contribute to a growth rate of at least 10-15% in line with the annual growth rate CAGR.

 VRTX There are a few things to look forward to.


 After their strengths in small molecule drugs, Vertex added their new technology types of drugs for rare diseases, such as gene editing, microRNA, mRNA drugs, cell therapy, and so on.

And VRTX uses a lot of external cooperation, investment, and company mergers and acquisitions, etc., to serve their treatment strategy.

 For example, VRTX recently acquired Semma Therapeutics, a company that specializes in using stem cells to treat diabetes.

In addition, another well-known example is the cooperation with CRISPR therapeutics in vitro CRISPR editing to treat sickle cell disease and B-thalassemia. Their Proof of concept data published at the end of last year and a report on NEJM are considered to be Very Promising, I also got a lot of breakthrough designation from the FDA and so on to speed up the review tickets.

Moreover, there are quite a lot of patients in this disease category. There are about 25000-30000 severe patients in Europe and America.

 I personally think that patients will start using this type of therapy in 2023 at the earliest, and Vertex and CRISPR Therapeutic are the most advanced.

 If you are afraid of CRISPR companies such as CRISPR Therapeutics, EDITS BEAM, and Intellia, such as cashless companies, I suggest that you should put your own CRISPR gene editing concept stock Portion on Vertex.

 Finally, VRTX also has some small-molecule protein regulators developed by itself.


For example, the rare disease ratio Alpha-1 Antitrypsin deficiency, APOL1-mediated Kidney Disease's small molecule protein regulator, will also have important data published in 2021, which is the focus of Vertex that we need to pay attention to. If these two POCs in 2021 If the data is very good, plus the CRISPR treatment just mentioned, I believe that Vertex will welcome another growth period after 2024 and 2025.

Vertex is currently using the discounted cash flow for 5 years to calculate the fair value is about 400, the current stock price of 200 US dollars, I will first wait for him to stabilize the 120 antennae before starting to open a position, but I think he will not until there is any major breakthrough, In the range of 200-300 for a long time.

 In addition, I may pay attention to the time when some new data comes out in the middle of the year, and make a swing option.

 Well, VRTX is a high-value but underestimated biotechnology company.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Three stages of bull and bear markets!

The bull and bear markets of the stock market are traditional indicators of the business cycle. As an investor, distinguishing bull and bear markets in the stock market and grasping the long-term development direction of the market can avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations and the impact of complex market information.  For example, the market fluctuations brought by news information, the sudden and sharp drop in market prices, and the impact of investor sentiment have led to making wrong investment trading decisions. The stock market is in a bull market, most asset prices will continue to rise, and the stock market is in a bear market, most asset prices will continue to fall. Both bull and bear markets are divided into three stages, so how to tell whether the stock market is in a bull or bear market, and at what stage. S&P500 Index What is a bull market? In the first stage of the bull market, after the market economy was in recession, the stock price fe...

Shopify stock forecast 2025:Is it worth buying?

  In the last year, the stocks rose relatively well. Another sector is e-commerce. Whether it is Amazon, Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, SEA or vertical e-commerce platforms Etsy and Chewy, all of them have experienced huge gains, while another category has benefited from the e-commerce sector.  The company is a website building tool company such as Shopify BigCommerce Holdings. Today I will talk about shopify, the leader of website building tools.  First, let's briefly talk about shopify's business model. To put it simply, shopify is a fool-like website building platform. In the past, when a company wanted to build a corporate website, it generally needed to find a dedicated person to design and maintain the website.  If you want to add shopping functions to the website, the cost of building the website will also increase. This is true for many small businesses and individual businesses.   A very difficult thing. Shopify uses the SAAS model to provide websit...

Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high. The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range. The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said...

The stock market entering a bear market?

On March 6, 2020, the US stock market continued its decline today after a few days of rebound. Is this the beginning of a bear market in the stock market? Next, let's analyze one important indicator of entering the bear market, Treasury bonds yield. What is the yield of Treasury bonds? Treasury bonds are a tool issued by the state to raise funds. When the bonds are issued, they promise to repay the principal and interest on a specified date. The ratio of the return of Treasury bonds to the principal invested is the return of Treasury bonds.  The main factors affecting bond yield include coupon rate, maturity, face value, holding time, purchase price, and sale price. Rising bond yields and falling bond prices mean investors are selling bonds, turning to invest activities, or entering the stock market. In a healthy economic environment, the longer the Treasury bonds, the higher the bond yield. Because short-term bonds are more liquid, investors are willing to accept lower ...

Bitcoin vs Ethereum vs Dogecoin: Which one is suitable to buy?

 Bitcoin(BTC), Ethereum(ETH), and Dogecoin(DOGE) are the three most-watched cryptocurrencies.  As a young investor, he has a strong mentality of pursuing returns and accepting new things. In recent years, cryptocurrencies have become the new favorites of many people. In particular, these three digital currencies have attracted the most attention: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin.  However, not all cryptocurrencies are created equally and trying to determine which type is right for you can cause confusion.  Each currency has advantages and disadvantages, and which currency you choose to invest in will depend on your situation.  Investing in cryptocurrency must bear the risk  First of all, you must consider whether cryptocurrencies are suitable for you because all cryptocurrencies are highly speculative and subject to great volatility. They have experienced the "currency disaster" in recent weeks, with an adjustable-rate of more than 30%.    Fur...

4 George Soros advice to investors!

Who is George Soros? George Soros is a Hungarian-born Jewish businessman. It is one of the most influential investors in the world. In 1969, the Double Eagle Fund was established for Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, an investment management company. In 1973, Soros and his assistant Rogers left Bleichroeder to co-found Soros Fund Management. In 1979, the well-known Quantum Fund was established and continued to make profits. In the Asian financial turmoil in 1997, George Soros sniped the Thai baht and the Hong Kong dollar, which was frightening. Learning from the experiences of successful people can benefit a lot. Here are 4 tips George Soros gave investors. First, to be successful, you must have ample free time. Most people want to be rich, but not everyone realizes the importance of free time. Many people spend a lot of time working to accumulate wealth, sleep, and forget. Set the goal to complete the work indicated by the superior, or the needs of business partners. But they hav...

4 economic indicators that must be observed!

  Stocks are one of the simplest and most passive types of income, but when we invest in the stock market, we always feel that the current stock price is on the high side, but if we don’t enter the market to buy stocks, we are afraid that the stock price will continue to rise. When the U.S. stock market continues to hit new highs, should it enter the market or should it wait and see and wait for the crash to enter the market.  First of all, I want to declare that I am a value investor and insist on the BUY AND HOLD operation method. We all know that stocks are cyclical, and we are now experiencing the longest bull market in history. Stock market analysts believe that a crash may come at any time, but we just have no way to predict the specific time. I believe everyone understands. But I know that a bear market will definitely come. The long-term trend of stocks often has several economic data as a reference. Today we will take a look at these economic data. source: tradingview...

Investors have begun to switch back to traditional growth stocks

 On Thursday, the stock prices of Cisco, Alphabet, and IBM hit new highs. But more importantly, the previously unpopular speculative growth stocks, including stocks bought by many ARK funds, have now begun to rebound.  How is this going?  Investors' perspective on the market is changing. In the first quarter of this year, mainstream voices in the market believe that the economy will restart strongly, bond yields will rise, and inflation may become a problem later this year. After the end of the first quarter, these expectations were only partially fulfilled.  The U.S. economy has indeed restarted strongly, but bond yields fell in the first quarter instead of rising because investors began to believe:  1) Inflation and supply chain disruption may indeed be "temporary", as the Fed insists;  2) The second and third quarters will be the highest points of stock returns and economic growth.  Alec Young, a chief investment officer of Tactical Alpha, said: “...

Barrick Gold stock price soars after Warren Buffett's buys a stake?

Has Buffett bought gold ? Buffett has not changed. Buffett does not want to hold physical gold, but he has never said that he will not buy shares in gold mining companies. Looking at the entire market, there are not many stocks that fit Buffett's trading. And Barrick Gold Company is just one of them. Buffett bought nearly 21 million shares, and the current share value is $563 million. We now look at the underlying logic of Buffett's purchase of Barrick Gold stock. Compared with physical gold ETFs, gold mining companies can respond positively to market conditions. There are financial reports to analyze, With dividends and stock repurchase plans, gold mining companies have the right to reward shareholders through capital return plans. In contrast, the physical gold ETF has no gains. The market generally believes that it is still in the upward cycle of gold prices . The current international environment is one where black swans emerge one after another. While paying att...

TSMC VS Nvidia, AMD, Intel. How to choose semiconductor stocks?

The general pattern of the semiconductor industry, the overall trend and target price of TSMC in 2021, how the Nvidia(NVDA), AMD, and Intel(INTC) semiconductor stocks are laid out, what is the decisive factors, and whether there is a predictable time point, we conducted a more systematic discussion.  The big picture of the semiconductor industry The semiconductor industry is cyclical. Since the second half of 2019, global semiconductors have entered a new round of the business cycle. This is very important. Only when you understand this reason can you hold stocks with peace of mind. The following analysis is based on the time dimension. In the short term, looking at one to three months now, with the outbreak of the epidemic again, the production capacity of 8-inch wafers are in short supply, the semiconductor industry chain is out of stock, wafer foundry, packaging, and testing links have seen price increases, and production capacity is in short supply. High economic situation, In ...