VRTX stock forecast 2025: Vertex is undervalued

Let's look at some biotech companies with stable cash flow and currently undervalued value stocks as targets for diversified portfolios.

The company I shared today, called Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), is dedicated to the development of rare diseases, especially Cystic Fibrosis (CF).

I have always had high respect for the rare disease group of pharmaceutical companies in the disease category. In addition, in the future, gene and cell therapies are subverting the role of rare diseases in the pharmaceutical industry, making rare diseases no longer uncommon. It's tasteless, but a field full of the future.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. was established in 1989 by Joshua Boger and Kevin Kinsella.

is headquartered in Boston. At that time, several very good research and development companies were established in the United States, including the aforementioned Regeneron, Gilead, and today's Vertex.

Vertex In the past, he devoted himself to the development of small molecule drugs, which are chemical compound drugs.

And the founder Joshua Boger at that time was the pioneer of structure drug design and was the first company to use Rational drug design, meaning that he was committed to the research of drug targets (3D structure, druggability, etc.), and then made drugs. Screening, and optimization of candidate drugs.

Vertex was the first to make infectious drugs, such as hepatitis C drugs. Later, I found the company's Driver in cystic fibrosis (cystic fibrosis). It can be said that it is the monopolist of cystic fibrosis (Cystic fibrosis).

Vertex Pharmaceutical, to be honest, although there are 3-4 kinds of drugs on the market, they are all for the treatment of cystic fibrosis CF. It is inevitable to be called a single-indication company by the market, which means that they only have products for cystic fibrosis CF.

Before the Cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulators of Vertex came out, general CF could only treat symptoms, and CFTR modulators are really specific treatments in essence, which is a good gospel for patients.

And VRTX's recent 3-in-1 drug Trikafta was launched at the end of 2019.

There are approximately 83,000 patients with CF among European and American Caucasians (among Americans, Europeans, Australians, and Canadians). After the 3-in-1 drug was launched in 2019, Vertex could only treat about 50% of CF patients. Treat 90% of patients.

Let VRTX's 2020 revenue YOY have a 55% growth.

It is estimated that after receiving benefits in various places in 2021, 2021 should be able to maintain a YOY growth of about 8-10%.

At present, there are almost no threats to CFTR competitors in the market, and the fixed-dose combination patent of Trikafta can still reach 2025. I think CFTR will have a stable revenue contribution in the next 5 years, about single-digit growth.

As a market observer, especially for biotech companies. What we have to judge is, what exactly will Vertex's new driver be in the next five years? What can be based on CF Franchise and contribute to a growth rate of at least 10-15% in line with the annual growth rate CAGR.

VRTX There are a few things to look forward to.

After their strengths in small molecule drugs, Vertex added their new technology types of drugs for rare diseases, such as gene editing, microRNA, mRNA drugs, cell therapy, and so on.

And VRTX uses a lot of external cooperation, investment, and company mergers and acquisitions, etc., to serve their treatment strategy.

For example, VRTX recently acquired Semma Therapeutics, a company that specializes in using stem cells to treat diabetes.

In addition, another well-known example is the cooperation with CRISPR therapeutics in vitro CRISPR editing to treat sickle cell disease and B-thalassemia. Their Proof of concept data published at the end of last year and a report on NEJM are considered to be Very Promising, I also got a lot of breakthrough designation from the FDA and so on to speed up the review tickets.

Moreover, there are quite a lot of patients in this disease category. There are about 25000-30000 severe patients in Europe and America.

I personally think that patients will start using this type of therapy in 2023 at the earliest, and Vertex and CRISPR Therapeutic are the most advanced.

If you are afraid of CRISPR companies such as CRISPR Therapeutics, EDITS BEAM, and Intellia, such as cashless companies, I suggest that you should put your own CRISPR gene editing concept stock Portion on Vertex.

Finally, VRTX also has some small-molecule protein regulators developed by itself.

For example, the rare disease ratio Alpha-1 Antitrypsin deficiency, APOL1-mediated Kidney Disease's small molecule protein regulator, will also have important data published in 2021, which is the focus of Vertex that we need to pay attention to. If these two POCs in 2021 If the data is very good, plus the CRISPR treatment just mentioned, I believe that Vertex will welcome another growth period after 2024 and 2025.

Vertex is currently using the discounted cash flow for 5 years to calculate the fair value is about 400, the current stock price of 200 US dollars, I will first wait for him to stabilize the 120 antennae before starting to open a position, but I think he will not until there is any major breakthrough, In the range of 200-300 for a long time.

In addition, I may pay attention to the time when some new data comes out in the middle of the year, and make a swing option.

Well, VRTX is a high-value but underestimated biotechnology company.

Comments

Gold(GLD) and crude oil(USO) plunge and lose their value?

Recently, the stock market has experienced ups and downs. During the financial crisis, gold, bonds, and even bitcoin, which have been regarded as value-preserving, have depreciated. Can't help but make many investors confused, why is it like this? gold Gold On February 24, due to the stock market crash, a large number of institutions sold gold to make up for the losses of these institutions in the stock market and to increase margin. The price of gold resumed its rise in early March and then fell to a lower level again on March 9. Many investors were confused. Should n’t gold be a hedge? Should n’t gold and the stock market rise in the opposite direction? All of this has nothing to do with the shortage of funds in the repo market. The Fed ’s bailout ceiling is far from enough, and then the Fed issued an emergency statement on March 12. "Starting on March 12, 500 billion bailouts will be provided. Tomorrow the Fed will provide another 500 billion three-month repurchase...

The era of negative US interest rates coming?

Recently, the US Federal Reserve suddenly cut interest rates and US stocks fell sharply. Most investors believe that the ten-year bull market for US stocks has ended. In terms of the US dollar index, after a period of decline, the US dollar index rebounded sharply, indicating that risk aversion was high, and market funds were flowing to the US dollar to hedge. The Fed ’s interest rate cuts have not saved the US stock market. The Fed ’s interest rates are now very low. If the Fed continues to cut interest rates in the future, the United States will soon enter the era of negative interest rates. Take Europe and Japan as examples. Negative interest rates have not restored the country ’s economy. The future economic situation of the United States is not optimistic. The reason for the negative interest rate is that the investment must be profitable, otherwise, it will not be invested. If the profit is low or loss, the investor will directly deposit the profit to the bank. When socia...

The signal that the stock market has peaked?

the stock market Although I know how to judge when the bear market is over and when I should buy at the bottom, I still don't know how to judge the selling at the top. I'm afraid I don't know when to leave the market after buying stocks in the future. If you have also tried to avoid the crash, stock market crash, and even bear market, or always hold stocks at these times. These four tricks are based on my experience in the stock market for more than 10 years. They help me hold cash early before many market declines, so I suggest that you must see the end. It is likely to help you invest in stocks. Raise to another level. Because knowing how to go is more important than knowing how to buy, and knowing how to go is an important factor in determining how much you can earn or lose. The first trick, everyone needs to learn to identify the Distribution Day. As the name implies, the shipping day is a day of huge selling pressure. On that day, it may be that large account...

Will China's economy recover as the epidemic is under control?

During the Chinese Spring Festival, novel coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, and the Chinese stock market was hit hard. Subsequently, the Chinese government quickly took strict measures to block Wuhan, a city with a population of tens of thousands of people, to prevent the further spread of the epidemic, and to take corresponding epidemic prevention measures in other cities. When the worst of the epidemic had already occurred, the Chinese stock market quickly rebounded. As the number of infections continues to decline, China's Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise further. Sars Period Looking back on similar events in the past, the SARS epidemic in 2003, the stock market also made a short-term decline, and then the SARS epidemic was brought under control, the stock market immediately went up for a long time. According to past historical data, the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the stock market may be short-lived. China Fund Capital Flow Howeve...

Three stages of bull and bear markets!

The bull and bear markets of the stock market are traditional indicators of the business cycle. As an investor, distinguishing bull and bear markets in the stock market and grasping the long-term development direction of the market can avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations and the impact of complex market information. For example, the market fluctuations brought by news information, the sudden and sharp drop in market prices, and the impact of investor sentiment have led to making wrong investment trading decisions. The stock market is in a bull market, most asset prices will continue to rise, and the stock market is in a bear market, most asset prices will continue to fall. Both bull and bear markets are divided into three stages, so how to tell whether the stock market is in a bull or bear market, and at what stage. S&P500 Index What is a bull market? In the first stage of the bull market, after the market economy was in recession, the stock price fe...

Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high. The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range. The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said...

Bear market coming, gold(GLD) assets become essential

The economic data of the global economic powers have been deteriorating, entering the bear market stage of the economy, and people have become more cautious when choosing asset investment. We should choose investment products with a low correlation coefficient with economic performance and investment products suitable for the current economic cycle. Investors should pay more attention to foreign exchange and commodity markets so that they can add value to your assets. Among many assets, anti-inflation commodities such as gold have become essential assets. Take gold as an example. For many years, gold has been regarded as an anti-inflation commodity by international capital markets and has been regarded as an important asset hedging tool by investors. There is also a saying, "The world bought gold during turbulent times." From basic political theory, we know that gold is not currency, and the currency is naturally gold and silver. Although gold has withdrawn from ...

How to judge the market entry signal?

buy sell Most people lose money when investing in stocks. One of the biggest reasons is that they buy stocks at the wrong time. Why did they buy the stock at the wrong time? Facts have proved that many people do not know that stocks only rise 1/4 times, and that is the easiest time to make money. And in another 3/4 of the time, making money is difficult, and losing money is easier. Today, I will share how to choose the right time to buy stocks. I hope you can see the final result because, in the end, I will share with you how to use simple technical indicators to help us find the exact input time. First of all, everyone must know a concept, whether it is a stock market or a stock, there are four stages. Let us take the stock market as an example. The first stage is called the "next stage". At this time, the market has just experienced a sharp decline, and most investors in the market are not interested in the stock market, because their memories are still stuck in t...

Safe-haven assets（GLD） are flowing into the market?

On March 9, 2020, the US Dow Jones Index plunged more than 2,000 points, the U.S. stock market crashed, the investment market was full of fear, and market funds flowed into those safe-haven assets? With the spread of the epidemic, the market's risk aversion has continued to increase, and the stock market has continued to fall. As an investor, to reduce investment risks, you must buy safe-haven assets, reduce the purchase or sale of assets in the stock market, and avoid a sharp decline in the stock market, which will cause serious losses. When market risks continue to increase, investors will continue to buy safe-haven assets. Investors should pay attention to the following several safe-haven assets and use them as safe-havens. Dow Jones Index The first safe-haven asset is gold. Gold（GLD）, as a traditional anti-inflation commodity, has always been the preferred safe-haven asset for investors. GLD The second safe-haven asset is the Japanese yen. Because the Japanese y...

Many companies will China close in 2020?

Starting in March, all walks of life in China began to resume work. People stayed at home for more than two months. Many people's moods changed from tension to leisure, and now they are anxious. It's not just the bosses who are anxious. Many employees find that their rents and mortgages are still being paid, the holidays are extended, they can't go to work, and their salaries aren't. Whenever there is no money it is a big problem. More than 700 companies closed down in February, but getting fewer wages is also better than the company suddenly closing down. In February, more than 700 companies have closed down, and this number should be exceeded. Statistics show that more than 55% of catering businesses in China have resumed work, but compared to the same period last year, affected by the epidemic, 78% of catering companies have lost more than 100% of their operating income, and another 16% of them have lost over 70%. This year's sudden outbreak, the impact...

FinanceLinkway

Search This Blog