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NIO vs LI vs XPEV stock： Q1 financial report analysis

NIO

Q1 financial report analysis： NIO vs LI vs XPEV stock

 In the financial report, the most striking thing is the delivery volume.  Comprehensive data shows that the NIO Q1 delivery volume exceeded 20,000 for the first time and continued to lead.  Beginning in 2021, NIO set a record of 20,060 deliveries in the first quarter, an increase of 422.7% year-on-year.

 All aspects of XPEV can be described as "stable".  The delivery of LI decreased by 13.03% month-on-month, making it the only company among the top three automakers that had a negative growth rate from the previous month.  

 At the same time, the financial report showed that after achieving profit in the previous quarter, LI Q1 turned into a loss.  The net loss reached 360 million yuan, an increase of 366.9% year-on-year.

 It is not difficult to see that the gap between LI Auto and the other two companies has not narrowed.  At the same time, in the car-making boom, the market's vision has also changed.

 LI Auto's net loss of negative growth from the previous quarter increased by 366.9% year-on-year

 Specifically, the Q1 financial report showed that the delivery of LI cars was 12,579, a year-on-year increase of 334.4%, and a decrease of 13.03% from the previous month; the delivery of XPEV was 13,340, a year-on-year increase of 487.4%, and a month-on-month increase of 2.9%; the delivery of NIO was 2,060,  A year-on-year increase of 422.7% and a month-on-month increase of 15.6%.

 The year-on-year growth of the other two companies both exceeded 400%, and the LI car was less than 350%. The gap has been further widened.  In the month-on-month growth rate, only LI was negative, reaching-13.03%.

 This also directly affects the financial data of the Big Three.

 The financial report shows that as of March 31, 2021, LI Auto’s Q1 total revenue was US$545.7 million, an increase of 319.8% from the 851.7 million in Q1 in 2020, and a decrease of 13.8% from the 4.15 billion in Q4 in 2020; LI Auto’s Q1 net loss  USD 54.9 million, an increase of 366.9% year-on-year.

 XPEV vehicle Q1's total revenue was US$450.4 million, an increase of 616.1% from Q1 in 2020 and an increase of 3.5% from Q4 in 2020.  XPEV Q1 has a net loss of US$120.1 million.

 NIO Q1's total revenue was US$1.2183 billion, an increase of 481.8% from Q1 in 2020 and an increase of 20.2% from Q4 in 2020.

  NIO’s Q1 net loss was US$68.8 million, a decrease of 73.3% compared to 2020 Q1 and a decrease of 67.5% compared to 2020 Q4.

 LI's Q1 gross profit margin in 2021 will be 17.3%, while Q1 and Q4 gross margins in 2020 will be 8.0% and 17.5% respectively; 

 XPEV's Q1 gross profit margin in 2021 will be 11.2%, while Q1 in 2020 and Q4 in 2020  The gross profit margins are-4.8% and 7.4%, respectively; 

 NIO's Q1 gross profit margin in 2021 is 19.5%, while the gross profit margins in 2020 Q1 and 2020 Q4 are-12.2% and 17.2%, respectively.

 The continued high investment in research and development is considered to be the main reason why the Big Three failed to make real profits.

 The financial report shows that the R&D expenses of LI, XPEV, and NIO accounted for 14.41%, 18.13%, and 8.61% of the overall revenue, respectively.

 The founder, chairman, and CEO of LI Auto said that he will increase investment in research and development in the future.

 In contrast, Tesla has been profitable for 7 consecutive quarters.  The financial report shows that Tesla’s Q1 revenue was 10.389 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 73.58% year-on-year. Its revenue scale was approximately 18.5 times that of LI Auto, 22.4 times that of XPEV, and 8.3 times that of NIO; Q1 net profit was $438 million.  The Big Three are in sharp contrast.

 As of March 31, 2021, LI auto cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, time deposits, and short-term investment balances were US$4.63 billion; XPEV was US$5.525.4 million; NIO was US$7.3 billion.

 Curved road overtaking: launching new cars and expanding production capacity

 Just one day before the release of the financial report, LI Auto released the 2021 LI-ONE model. The new car has been upgraded in terms of vehicle configuration, cruising range, and autonomous driving, and will be delivered on June 1 this year.

 At the 2021 Shanghai Auto Show, XPEV Cars will unveil its third product, the world's first mass-produced smart car equipped with lidar, the XPEV P5.  It is understood that XPEV P5 is expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2021.

 Recently, there have been media reports that NIO may launch an entry-level sub-brand, and its first model is called "Gemini" in English.  The positioning will be lower than that of existing SUVs and cars, with an annual output of 60,000; this will be the entry-level model that NIO will launch.

 NIO is currently in urgent need of developing the main model with the main price of about 200,000 yuan, exploring a wider market and complementing the NIO brand.

 Market value "cut in half"

 The complex and changeable market environment is finally reflected in the stock price.  LI's stock price is US$23.3 and the market value is US$21.078 billion; XPEV's stock price is US$32.13 and the market value is US$25.783 billion; NIO's stock price is US$38.62 and the market value is US$63.28 billion.

 Among them, based on the closing price, LI has fallen by 47.0% from its highest point of US$43.96, and its market value has evaporated by US$18.69 billion; XPEV has fallen from its highest point of US$72.17 by 55.48%, and its market value has evaporated by US$32.13 billion; NIO has fallen from its highest point of 62.84.  The U.S. dollar fell by 38.54%, and its market value evaporated by $39.685 billion.

 So far, the market value of the Big Three car manufacturers is almost "halved" from the high point, with a total market value of 90.505 billion U.S. dollars.

 The growth rate of the entire new energy industry is expected to slow down, the capital bubble ebbs, and the stock price gradually pulls back.  "Tesla is more regarded as a technology company than a car manufacturer. Moreover, the sales growth brought about by price cuts is not sustainable. 

 LI also only achieved quarterly profit and is still at a loss for the whole year. XPEV sales growth has slowed.  New energy car companies are still in the development stage. Compared with traditional car companies, the market size is smaller and there is a certain amount of water in the valuation."

 With the expiration of the local government's electric vehicle consumption encouragement policy, the further decline of the new subsidy quota, and the increase in chip prices caused by the "lack of core", all boost the cost of new car-building forces, and this will also affect  With its stock price.

 While the stock prices of the Big Three car manufacturers fluctuate, institutions are liquidating their positions.

 On February 13, Hillhouse Capital announced to the US Securities and Exchange Commission the position of US stocks at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020.  According to data, at the end of the third quarter of 2020, Hillhouse Capital held approximately 2.41 million shares of NIO, approximately 1.6 million shares of LI Auto, and approximately 900,000 shares of XPEV Auto.  At the end of the fourth quarter of the same year, Hillhouse Capital no longer holds the equity of the aforementioned new energy vehicle company.

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