BABA stock forecast 2025: The failure of Ant Financial's IPO

Ant Financial’s IPO was canceled, causing Alibaba’s share price to fall,

Alibaba has been unfavorable this year. First, the cancellation of Ant Financial's IPO indirectly caused Alibaba's stock price to fall, and now there is an antitrust investigation led by Alibaba, which caused Alibaba's stock price to plummet by 15% in a single day. From the highest point in October, the stock price of 319 dollars has fallen by as much as 30% to 222 dollars.

From the perspective of K-line, Alibaba has reached the Oversold area, and it will rebound upward in the short term. From the perspective of valuation, Alibaba’s valuation is as high as US$388, which is 74% of the current share price of US$222. Value-added space, so it seems that whether it is viewed from the short-term K-line or the long-term valuation, now is a good time to buy the bottom of Alibaba.

Before investing, I will analyze and analyze the root cause of the disadvantage of Alibaba this time, because if this problem is not resolved, Alibaba’s stock price will always face huge political risks, so have you ever thought about whether Alibaba is a poke Which sensitive nerve has found these murderous opportunities from the top?

Is it because of Jack Ma's speech? But Jack Ma’s speeches have always been bold, or are Alibaba and Ant Financial too big? The risk is too high? Then why is Tencent involved? Tencent’s stock price has also fallen 15% from its highest point.

All this is to blame on Alibaba’s Alipay and Tencent’s WeChat payment, which blocked a big plan of the central bank, which is the implementation of the central bank’s digital currency.

Here to express my personal opinion, but the timing of all anti-monopoly is very delicate. All this is due to Alipay of Alibaba and WeChat payment of Tencent, which blocked a big plan of the central bank, which is the implementation of central bank digital currency. This is not entirely my alarmist talk. It is clearly stated in the prospectus of Ant Financial's IPO: "Our business model may be negatively affected by some new payment models implemented in China."

Among them, there are mentions of the electronic digital currency invented by the central bank, and the impact of the implementation of electronic money on consumer payment habits, and how the central bank's digital currency will integrate into the existing electronic payment industry. All uncertainties, this central bank’s digital currency,

Simply put, it is the cash issued by the central bank, but it is used in the form of an electronic wallet and may be used as a substitute for coins and cash notes in the future.

Many people may find it strange that we are already using electronic payment methods such as Alipay and WeChat Pay. What is the difference between this and the newly launched central bank digital currency? The difference is that Alipay and WeChat Pay need to bind a bank card first, and then use a QR code and other quick payment methods, but they are a disguised card consumption.

But the central bank's digital currency is different. It is real gold and silver issued by the central bank. If a digital currency of 1 yuan is issued, there is 1 more currency in the market, which can directly affect the total amount of currency in the market. Currency is currency, and Alipay and WeChat Pay are third-party payment platforms, and will not affect the issuance of digital currency, but the monopoly of Alibaba and Tencent does hinder the issuance of digital currency from the following aspects, which also attracts With these kinds of political risks,

Let's first look at how the central bank's digital currency is implemented. The central bank is the largest boss that controls the issuance of digital currency, but the central bank has no way to directly send money to people because the central bank does not know who to send it to, so this digital currency needs the central bank First distribute the digital currency to the middleman, and then issue it to the electronic currency wallet through the middleman. These middlemen are traditionally several major banks in China, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Construction Bank, Bank of China, and Agriculture Banks, etc.,

These banks have successively launched trial versions of e-currency wallet apps, preparing to respond to the promotion of digital currencies, but this set of e-wallet apps has huge opponents. The current cashless retail payments, Alipay and WeChat payment have already occupied more than 90% of the market share, so to promote the central bank’s digital currency, it is necessary to add Tencent and Alibaba to similar intermediaries connecting several major banks.

But putting the issuance of digital currency in the hands of two major private companies requires the government to plan those rules and regulations to ensure that Alibaba and Tencent follow the same rules as traditional banks. A series of reforms, including such as returning to the service platform that focuses on providing payment, correction, or "exit" of lending, insurance, financial management, etc.

The monopoly of Alibaba and Tencent's electronic payment also has another problem. So far, these large e-commerce companies are operating in a closed environment, such as JD.com, which does not accept Alipay. , And WeChat Pay is not supported on Alibaba’s platform. Similarly, Meituan, which is backed by Tencent, also does not support the payment method of rival Alipay.

And such a monopolistic operation model is likely to be banned in this anti-monopoly investigation because the central bank’s digital currency is a cash currency, not a payment platform, so it cannot be rejected by any platform, just like Yes, can you imagine the situation of shopping in the mall with RMB cash, and the result is rejected by the mall?

But even if all of these are resolved, it is still not enough. Due to the monopoly of Alibaba and Tencent in electronic payment, even if the corresponding management laws are introduced, the central bank cannot rest assured to rely on the two private companies as the main digital currency. Instead, issuers would prefer to allocate this role more to the digital currency wallets of traditional banks.

Therefore, it can be expected that shortly, the central bank will encourage everyone to use the digital wallets of traditional banks, and even the digital wallets issued by the central bank itself, to weaken the people's dependence on Alipay and WeChat payment, but it is not so necessary to achieve this. simple,

The reason why Alipay and WeChat Pay are so popular is that they are connected to many other apps in the application software. For example, through Alipay and WeChat App, you can directly call uber, book movie tickets, book air tickets, and hotels, and monopolistic cross-selling is likely to be the focus of this monopoly investigation, which will weaken the cross-selling revenue of the two major groups.

In general, it is conceivable that after the introduction of the central bank's electronic currency, the implementation of traditional bank digital wallets is likely to weaken the market share of Alibaba and Tencent in electronic payment. Take Ant Financial as an example. It has opened up to financial services such as insurance, financial management, lending, etc., but these three pieces are likely to be peeled off this time, and the biggest remaining one is electronic payment.

As far as Ant Financial is concerned, it has handled a full 17 trillion electronic payments in the past 12 months, but this one is likely to be greatly weakened. In addition to losing more, it is a major issue for electronic payments. The control of data, the central bank’s electronic money, is to reduce the use of cash, to reduce money laundering, crime, etc.

But the ultimate goal, everyone knows, the ultimate goal of any central bank's digital currency in the world is to be able to thoroughly track the direction of funds.

These big data were previously owned by Tencent and Alibaba, but after the central bank's data currency wallet is launched, the big data behind this will be controlled by the central bank. Before the launch of the data currency, those delayed economic statements, the central bank's data currency The tracking of the government will bring real-time data analysis to the government, which industry needs macro-control, which industry has insufficient consumer power and needs stimulation, etc.

Then Tencent and Alibaba have lost a lot of the commercial value that these data could bring. In this way, if the starting point of this anti-monopoly investigation on Tencent and Alibaba is indeed triggered by the central bank’s digital currency, as expected, Then the impact may not be like many friends hope, walk away from the form, the thunder is heavy and the rain is small, but the actual transformation is peeling.

In this way, short-term K-line analysis, or long-term valuation analysis, may have to step aside. The risk of political factors will greatly affect technical analysis and the company’s fundamentals.

How will Tencent and Alibaba coexist with the central bank's digital currency? This will be a key factor in Alibaba and Tencent's share price forecasts.

Comments

Three stages of bull and bear markets!

The bull and bear markets of the stock market are traditional indicators of the business cycle. As an investor, distinguishing bull and bear markets in the stock market and grasping the long-term development direction of the market can avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations and the impact of complex market information. For example, the market fluctuations brought by news information, the sudden and sharp drop in market prices, and the impact of investor sentiment have led to making wrong investment trading decisions. The stock market is in a bull market, most asset prices will continue to rise, and the stock market is in a bear market, most asset prices will continue to fall. Both bull and bear markets are divided into three stages, so how to tell whether the stock market is in a bull or bear market, and at what stage. S&P500 Index What is a bull market? In the first stage of the bull market, after the market economy was in recession, the stock price fe...

Shopify stock forecast 2025：Is it worth buying?

In the last year, the stocks rose relatively well. Another sector is e-commerce. Whether it is Amazon, Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, SEA or vertical e-commerce platforms Etsy and Chewy, all of them have experienced huge gains, while another category has benefited from the e-commerce sector. The company is a website building tool company such as Shopify BigCommerce Holdings. Today I will talk about shopify, the leader of website building tools. First, let's briefly talk about shopify's business model. To put it simply, shopify is a fool-like website building platform. In the past, when a company wanted to build a corporate website, it generally needed to find a dedicated person to design and maintain the website. If you want to add shopping functions to the website, the cost of building the website will also increase. This is true for many small businesses and individual businesses. A very difficult thing. Shopify uses the SAAS model to provide websit...

Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high. The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range. The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said...

The stock market entering a bear market？

On March 6, 2020, the US stock market continued its decline today after a few days of rebound. Is this the beginning of a bear market in the stock market? Next, let's analyze one important indicator of entering the bear market, Treasury bonds yield. What is the yield of Treasury bonds? Treasury bonds are a tool issued by the state to raise funds. When the bonds are issued, they promise to repay the principal and interest on a specified date. The ratio of the return of Treasury bonds to the principal invested is the return of Treasury bonds. The main factors affecting bond yield include coupon rate, maturity, face value, holding time, purchase price, and sale price. Rising bond yields and falling bond prices mean investors are selling bonds, turning to invest activities, or entering the stock market. In a healthy economic environment, the longer the Treasury bonds, the higher the bond yield. Because short-term bonds are more liquid, investors are willing to accept lower ...

Bitcoin vs Ethereum vs Dogecoin: Which one is suitable to buy?

Bitcoin（BTC), Ethereum(ETH), and Dogecoin（DOGE） are the three most-watched cryptocurrencies. As a young investor, he has a strong mentality of pursuing returns and accepting new things. In recent years, cryptocurrencies have become the new favorites of many people. In particular, these three digital currencies have attracted the most attention: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin. However, not all cryptocurrencies are created equally and trying to determine which type is right for you can cause confusion. Each currency has advantages and disadvantages, and which currency you choose to invest in will depend on your situation. Investing in cryptocurrency must bear the risk First of all, you must consider whether cryptocurrencies are suitable for you because all cryptocurrencies are highly speculative and subject to great volatility. They have experienced the "currency disaster" in recent weeks, with an adjustable-rate of more than 30%. Fur...

4 George Soros advice to investors!

Who is George Soros? George Soros is a Hungarian-born Jewish businessman. It is one of the most influential investors in the world. In 1969, the Double Eagle Fund was established for Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, an investment management company. In 1973, Soros and his assistant Rogers left Bleichroeder to co-found Soros Fund Management. In 1979, the well-known Quantum Fund was established and continued to make profits. In the Asian financial turmoil in 1997, George Soros sniped the Thai baht and the Hong Kong dollar, which was frightening. Learning from the experiences of successful people can benefit a lot. Here are 4 tips George Soros gave investors. First, to be successful, you must have ample free time. Most people want to be rich, but not everyone realizes the importance of free time. Many people spend a lot of time working to accumulate wealth, sleep, and forget. Set the goal to complete the work indicated by the superior, or the needs of business partners. But they hav...

4 economic indicators that must be observed!

Stocks are one of the simplest and most passive types of income, but when we invest in the stock market, we always feel that the current stock price is on the high side, but if we don’t enter the market to buy stocks, we are afraid that the stock price will continue to rise. When the U.S. stock market continues to hit new highs, should it enter the market or should it wait and see and wait for the crash to enter the market. First of all, I want to declare that I am a value investor and insist on the BUY AND HOLD operation method. We all know that stocks are cyclical, and we are now experiencing the longest bull market in history. Stock market analysts believe that a crash may come at any time, but we just have no way to predict the specific time. I believe everyone understands. But I know that a bear market will definitely come. The long-term trend of stocks often has several economic data as a reference. Today we will take a look at these economic data. source: tradingview...

Investors have begun to switch back to traditional growth stocks

On Thursday, the stock prices of Cisco, Alphabet, and IBM hit new highs. But more importantly, the previously unpopular speculative growth stocks, including stocks bought by many ARK funds, have now begun to rebound. How is this going? Investors' perspective on the market is changing. In the first quarter of this year, mainstream voices in the market believe that the economy will restart strongly, bond yields will rise, and inflation may become a problem later this year. After the end of the first quarter, these expectations were only partially fulfilled. The U.S. economy has indeed restarted strongly, but bond yields fell in the first quarter instead of rising because investors began to believe: 1) Inflation and supply chain disruption may indeed be "temporary", as the Fed insists; 2) The second and third quarters will be the highest points of stock returns and economic growth. Alec Young, a chief investment officer of Tactical Alpha, said: “...

Barrick Gold stock price soars after Warren Buffett's buys a stake?

Has Buffett bought gold ? Buffett has not changed. Buffett does not want to hold physical gold, but he has never said that he will not buy shares in gold mining companies. Looking at the entire market, there are not many stocks that fit Buffett's trading. And Barrick Gold Company is just one of them. Buffett bought nearly 21 million shares, and the current share value is $563 million. We now look at the underlying logic of Buffett's purchase of Barrick Gold stock. Compared with physical gold ETFs, gold mining companies can respond positively to market conditions. There are financial reports to analyze, With dividends and stock repurchase plans, gold mining companies have the right to reward shareholders through capital return plans. In contrast, the physical gold ETF has no gains. The market generally believes that it is still in the upward cycle of gold prices . The current international environment is one where black swans emerge one after another. While paying att...

TSMC VS Nvidia, AMD, Intel. How to choose semiconductor stocks?

The general pattern of the semiconductor industry, the overall trend and target price of TSMC in 2021, how the Nvidia(NVDA), AMD, and Intel(INTC) semiconductor stocks are laid out, what is the decisive factors, and whether there is a predictable time point, we conducted a more systematic discussion. The big picture of the semiconductor industry The semiconductor industry is cyclical. Since the second half of 2019, global semiconductors have entered a new round of the business cycle. This is very important. Only when you understand this reason can you hold stocks with peace of mind. The following analysis is based on the time dimension. In the short term, looking at one to three months now, with the outbreak of the epidemic again, the production capacity of 8-inch wafers are in short supply, the semiconductor industry chain is out of stock, wafer foundry, packaging, and testing links have seen price increases, and production capacity is in short supply. High economic situation, In ...

FinanceLinkway

Search This Blog