BABA stock forecast 2025: The failure of Ant Financial's IPO

Ant Financial’s IPO was canceled, causing Alibaba’s share price to fall,

Alibaba has been unfavorable this year. First, the cancellation of Ant Financial's IPO indirectly caused Alibaba's stock price to fall, and now there is an antitrust investigation led by Alibaba, which caused Alibaba's stock price to plummet by 15% in a single day. From the highest point in October, the stock price of 319 dollars has fallen by as much as 30% to 222 dollars.

From the perspective of K-line, Alibaba has reached the Oversold area, and it will rebound upward in the short term. From the perspective of valuation, Alibaba’s valuation is as high as US$388, which is 74% of the current share price of US$222. Value-added space, so it seems that whether it is viewed from the short-term K-line or the long-term valuation, now is a good time to buy the bottom of Alibaba.

Before investing, I will analyze and analyze the root cause of the disadvantage of Alibaba this time, because if this problem is not resolved, Alibaba’s stock price will always face huge political risks, so have you ever thought about whether Alibaba is a poke Which sensitive nerve has found these murderous opportunities from the top?

Is it because of Jack Ma's speech? But Jack Ma’s speeches have always been bold, or are Alibaba and Ant Financial too big? The risk is too high? Then why is Tencent involved? Tencent’s stock price has also fallen 15% from its highest point.

All this is to blame on Alibaba’s Alipay and Tencent’s WeChat payment, which blocked a big plan of the central bank, which is the implementation of the central bank’s digital currency.

Here to express my personal opinion, but the timing of all anti-monopoly is very delicate. All this is due to Alipay of Alibaba and WeChat payment of Tencent, which blocked a big plan of the central bank, which is the implementation of central bank digital currency. This is not entirely my alarmist talk. It is clearly stated in the prospectus of Ant Financial's IPO: "Our business model may be negatively affected by some new payment models implemented in China."

Among them, there are mentions of the electronic digital currency invented by the central bank, and the impact of the implementation of electronic money on consumer payment habits, and how the central bank's digital currency will integrate into the existing electronic payment industry. All uncertainties, this central bank’s digital currency,

Simply put, it is the cash issued by the central bank, but it is used in the form of an electronic wallet and may be used as a substitute for coins and cash notes in the future.

Many people may find it strange that we are already using electronic payment methods such as Alipay and WeChat Pay. What is the difference between this and the newly launched central bank digital currency? The difference is that Alipay and WeChat Pay need to bind a bank card first, and then use a QR code and other quick payment methods, but they are a disguised card consumption.

But the central bank's digital currency is different. It is real gold and silver issued by the central bank. If a digital currency of 1 yuan is issued, there is 1 more currency in the market, which can directly affect the total amount of currency in the market. Currency is currency, and Alipay and WeChat Pay are third-party payment platforms, and will not affect the issuance of digital currency, but the monopoly of Alibaba and Tencent does hinder the issuance of digital currency from the following aspects, which also attracts With these kinds of political risks,

Let's first look at how the central bank's digital currency is implemented. The central bank is the largest boss that controls the issuance of digital currency, but the central bank has no way to directly send money to people because the central bank does not know who to send it to, so this digital currency needs the central bank First distribute the digital currency to the middleman, and then issue it to the electronic currency wallet through the middleman. These middlemen are traditionally several major banks in China, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Construction Bank, Bank of China, and Agriculture Banks, etc.,

These banks have successively launched trial versions of e-currency wallet apps, preparing to respond to the promotion of digital currencies, but this set of e-wallet apps has huge opponents. The current cashless retail payments, Alipay and WeChat payment have already occupied more than 90% of the market share, so to promote the central bank’s digital currency, it is necessary to add Tencent and Alibaba to similar intermediaries connecting several major banks.

But putting the issuance of digital currency in the hands of two major private companies requires the government to plan those rules and regulations to ensure that Alibaba and Tencent follow the same rules as traditional banks. A series of reforms, including such as returning to the service platform that focuses on providing payment, correction, or "exit" of lending, insurance, financial management, etc.

The monopoly of Alibaba and Tencent's electronic payment also has another problem. So far, these large e-commerce companies are operating in a closed environment, such as JD.com, which does not accept Alipay. , And WeChat Pay is not supported on Alibaba’s platform. Similarly, Meituan, which is backed by Tencent, also does not support the payment method of rival Alipay.

And such a monopolistic operation model is likely to be banned in this anti-monopoly investigation because the central bank’s digital currency is a cash currency, not a payment platform, so it cannot be rejected by any platform, just like Yes, can you imagine the situation of shopping in the mall with RMB cash, and the result is rejected by the mall?

But even if all of these are resolved, it is still not enough. Due to the monopoly of Alibaba and Tencent in electronic payment, even if the corresponding management laws are introduced, the central bank cannot rest assured to rely on the two private companies as the main digital currency. Instead, issuers would prefer to allocate this role more to the digital currency wallets of traditional banks.

Therefore, it can be expected that shortly, the central bank will encourage everyone to use the digital wallets of traditional banks, and even the digital wallets issued by the central bank itself, to weaken the people's dependence on Alipay and WeChat payment, but it is not so necessary to achieve this. simple,

The reason why Alipay and WeChat Pay are so popular is that they are connected to many other apps in the application software. For example, through Alipay and WeChat App, you can directly call uber, book movie tickets, book air tickets, and hotels, and monopolistic cross-selling is likely to be the focus of this monopoly investigation, which will weaken the cross-selling revenue of the two major groups.

In general, it is conceivable that after the introduction of the central bank's electronic currency, the implementation of traditional bank digital wallets is likely to weaken the market share of Alibaba and Tencent in electronic payment. Take Ant Financial as an example. It has opened up to financial services such as insurance, financial management, lending, etc., but these three pieces are likely to be peeled off this time, and the biggest remaining one is electronic payment.

As far as Ant Financial is concerned, it has handled a full 17 trillion electronic payments in the past 12 months, but this one is likely to be greatly weakened. In addition to losing more, it is a major issue for electronic payments. The control of data, the central bank’s electronic money, is to reduce the use of cash, to reduce money laundering, crime, etc.

But the ultimate goal, everyone knows, the ultimate goal of any central bank's digital currency in the world is to be able to thoroughly track the direction of funds.

These big data were previously owned by Tencent and Alibaba, but after the central bank's data currency wallet is launched, the big data behind this will be controlled by the central bank. Before the launch of the data currency, those delayed economic statements, the central bank's data currency The tracking of the government will bring real-time data analysis to the government, which industry needs macro-control, which industry has insufficient consumer power and needs stimulation, etc.

Then Tencent and Alibaba have lost a lot of the commercial value that these data could bring. In this way, if the starting point of this anti-monopoly investigation on Tencent and Alibaba is indeed triggered by the central bank’s digital currency, as expected, Then the impact may not be like many friends hope, walk away from the form, the thunder is heavy and the rain is small, but the actual transformation is peeling.

In this way, short-term K-line analysis, or long-term valuation analysis, may have to step aside. The risk of political factors will greatly affect technical analysis and the company’s fundamentals.

How will Tencent and Alibaba coexist with the central bank's digital currency? This will be a key factor in Alibaba and Tencent's share price forecasts.

Comments

Intel, Twitter, and Snapchat stock forecast 2025: latest quarterly earnings reports

Three technology companies, Intel, Twitter, and Snapchat, released their latest quarterly earnings reports. Let's take a look at their performance and the key information revealed at the earnings conference. Intel(INTC) stock forecast 2025 Several important data on Intel's earnings report beat expectations. Among them, earnings per share were US$1.28, higher than the expected US$1.06, an increase of 12% over the same period last year; total revenue was US$18.5 billion, beating analysts’ expectations of US$17.8 billion. However, in Intel's guidance for the next quarter, the Non-GAAP gross profit margin given is only 55%, which is far lower than the market's expected 59.2%. The reason given by Intel is that it is worried that supply chain problems will limit profitability, and the expected chip manufacturing business will bring additional costs. For chip companies, the market is most concerned about gross profit margin. TSMC fell last week b...

NIO and Tesla(TSLA) stock forecast 2025: released important news

In the past two days, two electric vehicle companies, NIO and Tesla have released important news. However, the market gave mixed reactions, one rose and the other fell. Let's take a look at what happened. To NIO stock forecast 2025 Let me talk about NIO first. NIO announced this morning that the company will issue additional shares totaling US$2 billion. The price of the additional issuance will be based on the current market price, and the timing of the issuance will be determined according to the company’s needs. It may be a one-time sale or a share. Wholesale sale. After calculation, this will cause about a 3% equity dilution for existing shareholders. However, the market seems to have given more interpretation. Today, NIO's share price has fallen by 6.3%, which is more than twice the theoretical dilution. To From the prospectus, the company only stated broadly that the funds raised will be used to strengthen its bala...

What is the average cost method?

Due to the recent plunge in the global market, I noticed that some people came out to promote an investment method called the fool-style stock disaster investment method. The thinking behind it is similar to other lazy investment methods, or monthly stocks/funds, just to change the saying, I will dismantle the problems behind you one by one. Let you see the risks you need to bear, first look at the logic behind this method. Its approach is this when the market drops 10%, you invest 20% of the funds to buy stock market ETFs when the market drops 20%, you invest another 20% when the market drops 30%, you invest another 20%, And so on. Until the market drops by 50%, you will put all the funds into the market, and when your average cost is equal to the market drops by 30%, you will buy all the funds in the market ETF (that is, All in). It is a kind of average cost method. The principle of this method is that, first, he believes that the maximum decline in the market is about 50%. A...

Will China's economy recover as the epidemic is under control?

During the Chinese Spring Festival, novel coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, and the Chinese stock market was hit hard. Subsequently, the Chinese government quickly took strict measures to block Wuhan, a city with a population of tens of thousands of people, to prevent the further spread of the epidemic, and to take corresponding epidemic prevention measures in other cities. When the worst of the epidemic had already occurred, the Chinese stock market quickly rebounded. As the number of infections continues to decline, China's Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise further. Sars Period Looking back on similar events in the past, the SARS epidemic in 2003, the stock market also made a short-term decline, and then the SARS epidemic was brought under control, the stock market immediately went up for a long time. According to past historical data, the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the stock market may be short-lived. China Fund Capital Flow Howeve...

4 George Soros advice to investors!

Who is George Soros? George Soros is a Hungarian-born Jewish businessman. It is one of the most influential investors in the world. In 1969, the Double Eagle Fund was established for Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, an investment management company. In 1973, Soros and his assistant Rogers left Bleichroeder to co-found Soros Fund Management. In 1979, the well-known Quantum Fund was established and continued to make profits. In the Asian financial turmoil in 1997, George Soros sniped the Thai baht and the Hong Kong dollar, which was frightening. Learning from the experiences of successful people can benefit a lot. Here are 4 tips George Soros gave investors. First, to be successful, you must have ample free time. Most people want to be rich, but not everyone realizes the importance of free time. Many people spend a lot of time working to accumulate wealth, sleep, and forget. Set the goal to complete the work indicated by the superior, or the needs of business partners. But they hav...

4 economic indicators that must be observed!

Stocks are one of the simplest and most passive types of income, but when we invest in the stock market, we always feel that the current stock price is on the high side, but if we don’t enter the market to buy stocks, we are afraid that the stock price will continue to rise. When the U.S. stock market continues to hit new highs, should it enter the market or should it wait and see and wait for the crash to enter the market. First of all, I want to declare that I am a value investor and insist on the BUY AND HOLD operation method. We all know that stocks are cyclical, and we are now experiencing the longest bull market in history. Stock market analysts believe that a crash may come at any time, but we just have no way to predict the specific time. I believe everyone understands. But I know that a bear market will definitely come. The long-term trend of stocks often has several economic data as a reference. Today we will take a look at these economic data. source: tradingview...

Investors have begun to switch back to traditional growth stocks

On Thursday, the stock prices of Cisco, Alphabet, and IBM hit new highs. But more importantly, the previously unpopular speculative growth stocks, including stocks bought by many ARK funds, have now begun to rebound. How is this going? Investors' perspective on the market is changing. In the first quarter of this year, mainstream voices in the market believe that the economy will restart strongly, bond yields will rise, and inflation may become a problem later this year. After the end of the first quarter, these expectations were only partially fulfilled. The U.S. economy has indeed restarted strongly, but bond yields fell in the first quarter instead of rising because investors began to believe: 1) Inflation and supply chain disruption may indeed be "temporary", as the Fed insists; 2) The second and third quarters will be the highest points of stock returns and economic growth. Alec Young, a chief investment officer of Tactical Alpha, said: “...

What is a spac stock in the Investment market?

Let me talk about SPAC first. SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) means "Special Purpose Acquisition Company", also known as "Blank Check" or "Shell Company". As the name suggests, this company has no actual business, and its essence is a financial innovation tool that provides companies with listing services. More simply, SPAC is a shell resource company established by professional institutions such as investment banks and fund companies as promoters. The sole purpose of this company's listing is to find the target company, through reverse mergers and acquisitions, to achieve the target company's listing and financing. Most people pay attention to SPAC from 2020, but in fact, SPAC is nothing new. The SPAC structure was first born in the 1990s and was pioneered by David Nabers, who worked for the Wall Street investment bank GKN. However, in the past few decades, compared with traditional IPOs, the number of SPACs is very limited, and ...

Bitcoin will eventually lose its king status! Replaced by Ethereum

Considering many factors such as real use, user base, technological iteration speed, etc., Ethereum is likely to replace Bitcoin as the mainstream cryptocurrency. In terms of market trends, the key difference between the current cryptocurrency market and the 2017-2018 bull market is the participation of institutional investors. However, with the recent slowdown in the participation of institutional investors, the inflow of cryptocurrency ETFs has decreased, alternative currencies have emerged one after another, and the market has once again been dominated by retail investors. This shift from institutions to retail investors is increasing the possibility of a market crash. The current high volatility in the market will continue until cryptocurrencies have potential real economic uses independent of prices. Etherfang has huge potential The Ethereum system supports smart contracts and provides developers with a way to create new applications. ...

NIO vs LI vs XPEV stock： Q1 financial report analysis

Q1 financial report analysis： NIO vs LI vs XPEV stock In the financial report, the most striking thing is the delivery volume. Comprehensive data shows that the NIO Q1 delivery volume exceeded 20,000 for the first time and continued to lead. Beginning in 2021, NIO set a record of 20,060 deliveries in the first quarter, an increase of 422.7% year-on-year. All aspects of XPEV can be described as "stable". The delivery of LI decreased by 13.03% month-on-month, making it the only company among the top three automakers that had a negative growth rate from the previous month. At the same time, the financial report showed that after achieving profit in the previous quarter, LI Q1 turned into a loss. The net loss reached 360 million yuan, an increase of 366.9% year-on-year. It is not difficult to see that the gap between LI Auto and the other two companies has not narrowed. At the same time, in the car-making boom, the market's v...

FinanceLinkway

Search This Blog