Skip to main content

INTC stock forecast 2025: intel vs tsmc


Today I will combine the latest trends in TSMC and the chip industry to talk about my views on the trend of TSMC stocks and related semiconductor stocks. The biggest news in the past few days is that Intel has invested 20 billion US dollars to build factories and enter chip foundry.

Intel (INTC) stock forecast 2025

Intel (INTC) stock forecast 2025

Intel’s new CEO Pat Kissinger released the ambitious "IDM 2.0" strategic plan on March 24

In summary, on the one hand, Intel will separate the chip manufacturing part and open up production capacity to provide foundry services. On the other hand, its own chips will expand the scope of finding other foundry companies.

For example, looking for foundries such as TSMC and Samsung, we can interpret that Intel’s future business will have two parts: one is the foundry part and the other is the chip design part. If you look at Samsung Electronics, it originally has these two parts. Samsung’s chips are produced entirely by its own foundry company

This is because Samsung’s foundry capability is second only to TSMC. Samsung will not find other companies to do foundry. Intel’s approach is very common in this industry. GlobalFoundries was actually independent of AMD in 2009.

The separation of chip design and foundry is the general trend of this industry. Intel's move to this general direction under the new CEO's leadership is also in line with the trend of the times.

In line with market expectations, let’s analyze the impact on TSMC. Intel’s entry into the foundry industry’s competition has made companies on the foundry track even more crowded. Intel announced that it has broken through the EUV-based 7-nanometer process. I think we Think of it as TSMC, the third-largest in the industry, and Samsung, the second largest in the industry, has mass-produced EUV-based 5-nanometer processes.

What are the advantages of Intel foundry?


First, it can be expected that Intel’s chip design company should try to find its foundry company to do foundry. This is the same as Samsung’s strategy. Only those that cannot be done by themselves will be handed over to TSMC and Samsung. Therefore, Intel wafer generation The company’s biggest customer will actually be itself

Since Intel is the industry leader in chip design, the starting point of Intel foundry company is very high.

Second, most of Intel’s factories are located in the United States and Europe, and most of its foundry customers are also customers in the United States and Europe, such as Microsoft, IBM, Cisco, etc.

Compared with TSMC and Samsung, Intel is closer to its customers and easier to communicate with.

Third, needless to say, the United States will provide Intel’s foundry with financial, material, and human resources at the government level. Intel is the pride of the US IT industry. It is a truly American company and possesses American core technology. The establishment of factories and foundry in the United States is in the national interest of the United States

Based on the above three points, we can see that Intel’s foundry will have a certain impact on TSMC and Samsung.

Let's analyze the disadvantages of Intel's foundry


 First, it is a huge change from serving internal customers to serving external customers. This transformation is not easy to succeed.

Second, the cost in the United States is higher than that in Asia. Therefore, whether Intel can maintain its competitiveness in terms of price is still a problem. This was the reason. The foundry industry gradually shifted to low-cost Asia. GlobalFoundries with similar origins could not compete with TSMC and Samsung. Intel is hard to say there is a big opportunity

Third, many potential customers will be competitors of Intel, such as AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, etc. These companies will be more inclined to choose TSMC

Fourth, Intel has just broken through 7 nanometers and TSMC and Samsung have already mass-produced 5 nanometers a year ago. This determines that Intel, TSMC, and Samsung are not completely on the same subdivision track. Apple and Qualcomm’s latest mobile phone chips must It’s impossible to grab such customers with 5nm Intel

So, based on the above, my views on Intel's reform are as follows:


First, Intel’s reform is more focused on maintaining the leading position of Intel’s chip design, using the latest third-party manufacturing process to make its products maintain an advantage in the competition with AMD and Nvidia.

After all, Intel’s chip design is its core competitiveness. Intel’s chip design is the main body of Intel in the future. This is exactly the same as AMD’s original intention to spin-off GlobalFoundries.

Second, Intel’s current reform is more about stripping off the chip manufacturing part and allowing it to find work in the market, which may lead to fate. Intel’s new boss will of course not say so, but is more optimistic and emphasizes letting Intel work in foundry Look for opportunities

Third, this reorganization is good news for Intel. Intel is looking for a foundry, which can reduce costs, provide product competitiveness and breakthrough 7-nanometer technology, open up manufacturing capacity, and look for more business opportunities. Therefore, at this stage, the market recognizes Intel. Restructuring

However, in the long run, it depends on Intel’s performance. Intel has been severely suppressed by AMD in the past few years. Once found TSMC’s foundry, Intel uses the 5-nanometer process, Intel’s competitiveness will be greatly enhanced.

For AMD, Intel’s rebirth is definitely bad news. AMD’s short-term stock trend will definitely be under pressure.

Fourth, for TSMC, I think there is mixed good and bad news. 

tsm eps

The good news is that with Intel’s manufacturing outsourcing, TSMC as the industry leader, Intel as such a large quality customer, it is certain that TSMC’s short-term revenue will increase.

The worry is that TSMC has a strong potential competitor for foundry

I personally think that in the short term, there are more joys than worries. In the long term, it is difficult to tell. It really depends on the progress of Intel’s process technology and the evolution of the industry.

I’m not very optimistic about the foundry part of Intel. I think it might end up as a second-tier competitor like GlobalFoundries. Intel has not done well in the manufacturing process in the past few years, and it will not be suddenly reborn as a result of this reform.

TSMC’s leadership is based on many advantages that cannot be replicated, such as cost, competitiveness in Asia, high R&D investment in the past, and close relationships with customers, etc.

Fifth, who is the biggest beneficiary of this Intel reform? Of course, it is ASML

asml eps

 Intel increases its investment and will purchase a large number of EUV lithography machines. At the same time, competition intensifies, TSMC and Samsung will spend more money on research and development of high-end processes. Therefore, ASML, which monopolizes EUV lithography machines, will have good growth in the future.

Finally, talk about my views on TSMC stocks and related semiconductor stocks. With this round of adjustments to technology stocks, the price of TSMC in the U.S. stock market has been adjusted from the highest of US$142 to about US$110.

Intel’s entry into the foundry market will make investors more worried that competition will bring short-term pressure on TSMC’s stock price. However, I think TSMC’s adjustments will also give investors who have not entered the market a golden opportunity to buy. Because TSMC can adjust to below $100 because of this negative news, it should buy without hesitation.

I have analyzed that Intel is looking for TSMC's foundry. The recent shortage of chips determines that TSMC's performance in 2021 will be very good in the long-term. The entire chip industry is thriving and the demand for foundry is strong, and there is no major problem in the entire industry. Intel's entry into the foundry industry currently sees little impact on the far-leading TSMC

And we just analyzed that Intel’s foundry may always be a second-tier competitor.


Just like there is another GlobalFoundries and SMIC. TSMC’s true competitor is still Samsung. Facing the competition,

I believe that TSMC, which has the right time, location, people, and advantages, will continue to stay ahead. Therefore, if you, unfortunately, buy TSMC during this adjustment of technology stocks and get trapped, I think you should hold Intel. The short-term negative news will pass sooner or later, and in the end, the performance will have the final say.

If you want to invest in TSMC for a long time, the recent adjustment is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to enter the market. Also, if you want to hedge risks, the intensified competition in foundry has made ASML sit back and reap the benefits, and it is also a good long-term investment choice.

In the chip design industry, it’s not easy to analyze thoroughly. It’s hard to say that Intel will change its structure and become the ultimate winner in the long-term.

At the same time, AMD will not wait to die. It is even more difficult to judge the future of Intel’s foundry part. At this stage, it is not possible to judge clearly by Intel CEO's ppt alone.

In any case, after all, the entire chip design industry is still very promising. The ups and downs of individual companies are sometimes not easy to see really. If you are like this, I think you can hold the chip design industry through ETFs such as tracking the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. ETF SOXX


Related articles

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Three stages of bull and bear markets!

The bull and bear markets of the stock market are traditional indicators of the business cycle. As an investor, distinguishing bull and bear markets in the stock market and grasping the long-term development direction of the market can avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations and the impact of complex market information.  For example, the market fluctuations brought by news information, the sudden and sharp drop in market prices, and the impact of investor sentiment have led to making wrong investment trading decisions. The stock market is in a bull market, most asset prices will continue to rise, and the stock market is in a bear market, most asset prices will continue to fall. Both bull and bear markets are divided into three stages, so how to tell whether the stock market is in a bull or bear market, and at what stage. S&P500 Index What is a bull market? In the first stage of the bull market, after the market economy was in recession, the stock price fe...

Shopify stock forecast 2025:Is it worth buying?

  In the last year, the stocks rose relatively well. Another sector is e-commerce. Whether it is Amazon, Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, SEA or vertical e-commerce platforms Etsy and Chewy, all of them have experienced huge gains, while another category has benefited from the e-commerce sector.  The company is a website building tool company such as Shopify BigCommerce Holdings. Today I will talk about shopify, the leader of website building tools.  First, let's briefly talk about shopify's business model. To put it simply, shopify is a fool-like website building platform. In the past, when a company wanted to build a corporate website, it generally needed to find a dedicated person to design and maintain the website.  If you want to add shopping functions to the website, the cost of building the website will also increase. This is true for many small businesses and individual businesses.   A very difficult thing. Shopify uses the SAAS model to provide websit...

Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high. The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range. The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said...

The stock market entering a bear market?

On March 6, 2020, the US stock market continued its decline today after a few days of rebound. Is this the beginning of a bear market in the stock market? Next, let's analyze one important indicator of entering the bear market, Treasury bonds yield. What is the yield of Treasury bonds? Treasury bonds are a tool issued by the state to raise funds. When the bonds are issued, they promise to repay the principal and interest on a specified date. The ratio of the return of Treasury bonds to the principal invested is the return of Treasury bonds.  The main factors affecting bond yield include coupon rate, maturity, face value, holding time, purchase price, and sale price. Rising bond yields and falling bond prices mean investors are selling bonds, turning to invest activities, or entering the stock market. In a healthy economic environment, the longer the Treasury bonds, the higher the bond yield. Because short-term bonds are more liquid, investors are willing to accept lower ...

Bitcoin vs Ethereum vs Dogecoin: Which one is suitable to buy?

 Bitcoin(BTC), Ethereum(ETH), and Dogecoin(DOGE) are the three most-watched cryptocurrencies.  As a young investor, he has a strong mentality of pursuing returns and accepting new things. In recent years, cryptocurrencies have become the new favorites of many people. In particular, these three digital currencies have attracted the most attention: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin.  However, not all cryptocurrencies are created equally and trying to determine which type is right for you can cause confusion.  Each currency has advantages and disadvantages, and which currency you choose to invest in will depend on your situation.  Investing in cryptocurrency must bear the risk  First of all, you must consider whether cryptocurrencies are suitable for you because all cryptocurrencies are highly speculative and subject to great volatility. They have experienced the "currency disaster" in recent weeks, with an adjustable-rate of more than 30%.    Fur...

4 George Soros advice to investors!

Who is George Soros? George Soros is a Hungarian-born Jewish businessman. It is one of the most influential investors in the world. In 1969, the Double Eagle Fund was established for Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, an investment management company. In 1973, Soros and his assistant Rogers left Bleichroeder to co-found Soros Fund Management. In 1979, the well-known Quantum Fund was established and continued to make profits. In the Asian financial turmoil in 1997, George Soros sniped the Thai baht and the Hong Kong dollar, which was frightening. Learning from the experiences of successful people can benefit a lot. Here are 4 tips George Soros gave investors. First, to be successful, you must have ample free time. Most people want to be rich, but not everyone realizes the importance of free time. Many people spend a lot of time working to accumulate wealth, sleep, and forget. Set the goal to complete the work indicated by the superior, or the needs of business partners. But they hav...

Investors have begun to switch back to traditional growth stocks

 On Thursday, the stock prices of Cisco, Alphabet, and IBM hit new highs. But more importantly, the previously unpopular speculative growth stocks, including stocks bought by many ARK funds, have now begun to rebound.  How is this going?  Investors' perspective on the market is changing. In the first quarter of this year, mainstream voices in the market believe that the economy will restart strongly, bond yields will rise, and inflation may become a problem later this year. After the end of the first quarter, these expectations were only partially fulfilled.  The U.S. economy has indeed restarted strongly, but bond yields fell in the first quarter instead of rising because investors began to believe:  1) Inflation and supply chain disruption may indeed be "temporary", as the Fed insists;  2) The second and third quarters will be the highest points of stock returns and economic growth.  Alec Young, a chief investment officer of Tactical Alpha, said: “...

Barrick Gold stock price soars after Warren Buffett's buys a stake?

Has Buffett bought gold ? Buffett has not changed. Buffett does not want to hold physical gold, but he has never said that he will not buy shares in gold mining companies. Looking at the entire market, there are not many stocks that fit Buffett's trading. And Barrick Gold Company is just one of them. Buffett bought nearly 21 million shares, and the current share value is $563 million. We now look at the underlying logic of Buffett's purchase of Barrick Gold stock. Compared with physical gold ETFs, gold mining companies can respond positively to market conditions. There are financial reports to analyze, With dividends and stock repurchase plans, gold mining companies have the right to reward shareholders through capital return plans. In contrast, the physical gold ETF has no gains. The market generally believes that it is still in the upward cycle of gold prices . The current international environment is one where black swans emerge one after another. While paying att...

TSMC VS Nvidia, AMD, Intel. How to choose semiconductor stocks?

The general pattern of the semiconductor industry, the overall trend and target price of TSMC in 2021, how the Nvidia(NVDA), AMD, and Intel(INTC) semiconductor stocks are laid out, what is the decisive factors, and whether there is a predictable time point, we conducted a more systematic discussion.  The big picture of the semiconductor industry The semiconductor industry is cyclical. Since the second half of 2019, global semiconductors have entered a new round of the business cycle. This is very important. Only when you understand this reason can you hold stocks with peace of mind. The following analysis is based on the time dimension. In the short term, looking at one to three months now, with the outbreak of the epidemic again, the production capacity of 8-inch wafers are in short supply, the semiconductor industry chain is out of stock, wafer foundry, packaging, and testing links have seen price increases, and production capacity is in short supply. High economic situation, In ...

How to judge the market entry signal?

buy sell Most people lose money when investing in stocks. One of the biggest reasons is that they buy stocks at the wrong time. Why did they buy the stock at the wrong time? Facts have proved that many people do not know that stocks only rise 1/4 times, and that is the easiest time to make money. And in another 3/4 of the time, making money is difficult, and losing money is easier.  Today, I will share how to choose the right time to buy stocks. I hope you can see the final result because, in the end, I will share with you how to use simple technical indicators to help us find the exact input time. First of all, everyone must know a concept, whether it is a stock market or a stock, there are four stages. Let us take the stock market as an example. The first stage is called the "next stage".  At this time, the market has just experienced a sharp decline, and most investors in the market are not interested in the stock market, because their memories are still stuck in t...