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Can Apple（AAPL） icar end the dominance of Tesla（TSLA）?



Beginning in 2014, Apple started a plan for electric vehicles developed by "Project Titan".


In the Apple electric car project, in the past few years, internal conflicts, leadership issues, and other issues have affected the entire project. The rumors in 2016 even hinted that Apple had shelved plans for the car, but Apple has overcome the development difficulties and still plans to develop consumers Car,


The Apple car project has changed the leadership many times, and hundreds of employees have been laid off during the development process. In the past few years, there have been rumors that Apple has shifted its focus to autonomous driving software instead of just a car.


In June 2017, Apple CEO Tim Cook publicly talked about Apple’s work on autonomous driving software, which rarely confirmed Apple’s development work, because Apple usually does not share the details it is studying, but when it comes to cars When it comes to software, due to legal restrictions, it has to apply for a patent.


In 2017, Tim Cook said: "We focus on autonomous systems. This is the core technology that we think is very important." "We regard it as the mother of all AI projects, and it may be the most difficult AI project to carry out. one."


So many people thought that Apple was just doing car software, not a car, but Apple re-hired Tesla engineer Doug Field in 2018, which led to speculation that Apple will once again explore a car option, which is under development. Generation battery technology


Apple analysts believe that this car will become Apple's "next star product". Apple can provide "better hardware, software, and services" than potential competitors in the automotive market. The chip designed by Apple should be produced by TSMC. ,


Since the beginning of 2017, Apple has been testing its autonomous vehicles. They use SUVs rented in California to drive test vehicles on public roads. Off-road vehicles are equipped with sensors and cameras. They were found walking on the streets and also by others. I discovered that Apple held talks with four LiDAR sensor suppliers. These LiDAR sensors are smaller, more affordable, and easier to mass-produce than current LiDAR systems.


The LiDAR system is bulky and expensive, and cannot be used for mass-produced vehicles. Apple is also developing an autonomous shuttle service called "PAIL". The shuttle program will pick up and drop off employees between Apple’s offices in Silicon Valley. Cooperate with Volkswagen to install Apple's self-driving software on its car, let it drive by itself, and pick up employees,


On December 21, Reuters confirmed that Apple is still planning to produce a complete Apple brand car.


Reuters believes that if Apple’s plan can be realized, Apple cars may be ready to go into production in 2024. It is because this news and the success of the M1 chip have stimulated Apple’s stock price to rise sharply in the past few days.


As early as 4 years ago, Elon Musk mentioned in an interview that he did not think Google was his opponent, but he said at the time that Apple was closer to his direct opponent, but he also mentioned that Apple started the autonomous car plan. It started too late, why did he say that Apple is too late? I will analyze this later with you.


Now let’s compare first, Apple’s Lidar and Tesla’s Vision vision technology, almost every company’s self-driving car work, now uses Lidar technology,


Uber, Waymo, and Toyota all use it. According to data from 2017 to the present, Apple cars have a good chance to also use Lidar technology. Lidar is a method of measuring distance by emitting a laser and detecting the time required to return. This method Similar to radar, but they use lasers instead of radio waves. The technology is extremely accurate in detecting objects.


As for Tesla cars that have always relied on computer vision technology and run counter to LIDAR sensors, this is reverse engineering. Elon Musk even said: Using Lidar is a fool...Anyone who relies on Lidar is doomed to fail.


The main reason why Elon Musk does not use Lidar is cost. The cost of installing a single lidar device on a car is about $10,000. Tesla pays great attention to cost and ensures that the car price is reasonable. Because in the already expensive car, Also, the price of lidar will deter consumers. Elon Musk also highly emphasizes the relevance of humans and vision. He said that as humans, we will not throw lasers in all directions to drive cars.


He pointed out that everything we see on the road is full of visual information. All signs turn, and intersections can help us navigate. Because all these are static objects, LIDAR can accurately detect them, but Elon Musk pointed out, what if there are moving objects on the road? People, dogs, and flying plastic bags are all objects we often encounter on the road. LIDAR cannot detect how they move or even predict that these objects will move. Go there,


Lidar technology relies heavily on accurate maps, so it is not flexible enough. Only roads under perfect design can 100% be applied to Lidar technology.


Okay, now I will analyze the AI ​​technology of 2 companies,


Ai chip technology is the selling point that Tesla has always been proud of because Tesla is the first to enter the automotive Ai market. At present, Tesla and Ai have the highest amount of data in the industry. Tesla is currently 6 years faster than rivals Toyota and Volkswagen, and it is in Tesla. The daily increase in sales will only make its Ai learn faster. This is Elon Musk said in 2016 that Apple is his direct opponent, mainly because of Apple's A1 and chip technology.


But he also pointed out that Apple's entry into the market was too slow, so Ai's learning speed lags behind Tesla, but the point is here. As early as May 2016, Apple asked China's online car-hailing service provider to "Didi Chuxing". With an investment of 1 billion U.S. dollars, Didi Chuxing, as China’s Uber, dominates China’s ride-sharing industry with a market share of more than 80%.


In July 2016, Uber announced the merger of its business in China with Didi Chuxing, which further expanded Didi Chuxing’s influence in China and greatly increased Apple’s investment. It is reported that Apple has the opportunity to use Didi Chuxing. On the road data, enhance the Ai database of Apple cars. If it does happen, it will directly challenge Tesla’s robotaxi.


Now let’s take a look at the most important part of an electric car-the battery.


But because there is not much public information, I only see a small number of reports about Apple cars. We only know that Apple is developing a new battery design. They say that the design has the potential to "completely" reduce battery costs and increase The mileage that the vehicle can travel, Apple is creating a "single battery" design that will relax the capacity of a single battery by removing the bag containing the battery material and the module, which will allow more use in a smaller package. More active materials,


However, some battery analysts said that this technology is "the next level", not a higher level, similar to "the first time you saw an iPhone battery", but I think this is Apple's usual tactics, and it is not sold now. Surprisingly, to increase the mystery of the family, so I also want to know how good their batteries are.


According to Tesla’s last battery day conference, Tesla called it 4860 batteries. These new batteries will increase the energy capacity of Tesla’s EV batteries by five times, the power by six times, and increase the mileage of Tesla cars by 16%. ,


Well, now I will also share, how do I see the impact of Apple cars on Tesla's future? I think the biggest challenge for Apple cars in the future is on the production line. Tesla spent 17 years building this car kingdom From the production technology, Ai, battery patents, and now to the realization of large-scale production in factories, many people will ask Apple, "Now it is a car, not a phone. It is two things."


Does Apple have the ability to do this? But I also agree that because of Apple's financial ambitions, for them, there may be no money to solve things. It is said that Apple plans to rely on manufacturing partners to manufacture Vehicles, and are working with external partners to manufacture automotive parts, such as LiDAR sensors,


There are rumors that Apple is in early negotiations with well-known automotive electronics suppliers to find potential parts supplies that may be related to cars, and it is said that Apple is also working hard to build a factory in the United States to produce cars. According to the news, Mercedez Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, the three companies, will have the most opportunity to cooperate with Apple.


As the world's largest company-Apple, if it wants to implement things, no one may be able to stop it. But from the perspective of the overall automotive industry, the share of electric vehicles in the global passenger car market in 2020 will be about 3 %, even if Tesla currently occupies 18% of the electric car market, it is still a small proportion of a large market, but according to Bloomberg's analysis, by 2040, the sales of this electric car will account for the entire market in 2040 Of 35% this is a big market,


At this stage, many people are only better than Apple cars or Tesla better.


I don’t think that the emergence of Apple cars is the end of Tesla. People’s demand for electric cars will only increase in the future. The market has a lot of room for development and growth, so I think Tesla and Apple can coexist.


According to the understanding of ordinary Apple fans, Apple's products generally tend to be high-end, which represents a sign of wealth. If Apple uses Lidar technology, the price of Apple cars may not be affordable, and Elon Musk wants to help the world reduce Emissions, he has repeatedly proposed to reduce the price of each car to realize the idea that most people can afford Tesla.


For me, the business philosophy of these two companies is in different directions. There is a good chance that they target different customer groups. Just like the Samsung phone, Google phone, and iPhone, the seller can choose the company they like. Buy products, so I only think that these are electric cars of two different brands. Healthy competition will also improve the quality of the products. On the contrary, the release of Apple cars will have more opportunities to threaten other car manufacturers.


For example, Toyota, Volkswagen, etc. I just mentioned, have been behind Tesla for 6 years. The future of these veteran manufacturers is even more worrying. Please leave a message and tell me, what do you think of the Apple car concept? , Do you think there are only two kings in the future electric vehicle market? Or will a hundred flowers blossom?
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