Skip to main content

Can Apple（AAPL） icar end the dominance of Tesla（TSLA）?



Beginning in 2014, Apple started a plan for electric vehicles developed by "Project Titan".


In the Apple electric car project, in the past few years, internal conflicts, leadership issues, and other issues have affected the entire project. The rumors in 2016 even hinted that Apple had shelved plans for the car, but Apple has overcome the development difficulties and still plans to develop consumers Car,


The Apple car project has changed the leadership many times, and hundreds of employees have been laid off during the development process. In the past few years, there have been rumors that Apple has shifted its focus to autonomous driving software instead of just a car.


In June 2017, Apple CEO Tim Cook publicly talked about Apple’s work on autonomous driving software, which rarely confirmed Apple’s development work, because Apple usually does not share the details it is studying, but when it comes to cars When it comes to software, due to legal restrictions, it has to apply for a patent.


In 2017, Tim Cook said: "We focus on autonomous systems. This is the core technology that we think is very important." "We regard it as the mother of all AI projects, and it may be the most difficult AI project to carry out. one."


So many people thought that Apple was just doing car software, not a car, but Apple re-hired Tesla engineer Doug Field in 2018, which led to speculation that Apple will once again explore a car option, which is under development. Generation battery technology


Apple analysts believe that this car will become Apple's "next star product". Apple can provide "better hardware, software, and services" than potential competitors in the automotive market. The chip designed by Apple should be produced by TSMC. ,


Since the beginning of 2017, Apple has been testing its autonomous vehicles. They use SUVs rented in California to drive test vehicles on public roads. Off-road vehicles are equipped with sensors and cameras. They were found walking on the streets and also by others. I discovered that Apple held talks with four LiDAR sensor suppliers. These LiDAR sensors are smaller, more affordable, and easier to mass-produce than current LiDAR systems.


The LiDAR system is bulky and expensive, and cannot be used for mass-produced vehicles. Apple is also developing an autonomous shuttle service called "PAIL". The shuttle program will pick up and drop off employees between Apple’s offices in Silicon Valley. Cooperate with Volkswagen to install Apple's self-driving software on its car, let it drive by itself, and pick up employees,


On December 21, Reuters confirmed that Apple is still planning to produce a complete Apple brand car.


Reuters believes that if Apple’s plan can be realized, Apple cars may be ready to go into production in 2024. It is because this news and the success of the M1 chip have stimulated Apple’s stock price to rise sharply in the past few days.


As early as 4 years ago, Elon Musk mentioned in an interview that he did not think Google was his opponent, but he said at the time that Apple was closer to his direct opponent, but he also mentioned that Apple started the autonomous car plan. It started too late, why did he say that Apple is too late? I will analyze this later with you.


Now let’s compare first, Apple’s Lidar and Tesla’s Vision vision technology, almost every company’s self-driving car work, now uses Lidar technology,


Uber, Waymo, and Toyota all use it. According to data from 2017 to the present, Apple cars have a good chance to also use Lidar technology. Lidar is a method of measuring distance by emitting a laser and detecting the time required to return. This method Similar to radar, but they use lasers instead of radio waves. The technology is extremely accurate in detecting objects.


As for Tesla cars that have always relied on computer vision technology and run counter to LIDAR sensors, this is reverse engineering. Elon Musk even said: Using Lidar is a fool...Anyone who relies on Lidar is doomed to fail.


The main reason why Elon Musk does not use Lidar is cost. The cost of installing a single lidar device on a car is about $10,000. Tesla pays great attention to cost and ensures that the car price is reasonable. Because in the already expensive car, Also, the price of lidar will deter consumers. Elon Musk also highly emphasizes the relevance of humans and vision. He said that as humans, we will not throw lasers in all directions to drive cars.


He pointed out that everything we see on the road is full of visual information. All signs turn, and intersections can help us navigate. Because all these are static objects, LIDAR can accurately detect them, but Elon Musk pointed out, what if there are moving objects on the road? People, dogs, and flying plastic bags are all objects we often encounter on the road. LIDAR cannot detect how they move or even predict that these objects will move. Go there,


Lidar technology relies heavily on accurate maps, so it is not flexible enough. Only roads under perfect design can 100% be applied to Lidar technology.


Okay, now I will analyze the AI ​​technology of 2 companies,


Ai chip technology is the selling point that Tesla has always been proud of because Tesla is the first to enter the automotive Ai market. At present, Tesla and Ai have the highest amount of data in the industry. Tesla is currently 6 years faster than rivals Toyota and Volkswagen, and it is in Tesla. The daily increase in sales will only make its Ai learn faster. This is Elon Musk said in 2016 that Apple is his direct opponent, mainly because of Apple's A1 and chip technology.


But he also pointed out that Apple's entry into the market was too slow, so Ai's learning speed lags behind Tesla, but the point is here. As early as May 2016, Apple asked China's online car-hailing service provider to "Didi Chuxing". With an investment of 1 billion U.S. dollars, Didi Chuxing, as China’s Uber, dominates China’s ride-sharing industry with a market share of more than 80%.


In July 2016, Uber announced the merger of its business in China with Didi Chuxing, which further expanded Didi Chuxing’s influence in China and greatly increased Apple’s investment. It is reported that Apple has the opportunity to use Didi Chuxing. On the road data, enhance the Ai database of Apple cars. If it does happen, it will directly challenge Tesla’s robotaxi.


Now let’s take a look at the most important part of an electric car-the battery.


But because there is not much public information, I only see a small number of reports about Apple cars. We only know that Apple is developing a new battery design. They say that the design has the potential to "completely" reduce battery costs and increase The mileage that the vehicle can travel, Apple is creating a "single battery" design that will relax the capacity of a single battery by removing the bag containing the battery material and the module, which will allow more use in a smaller package. More active materials,


However, some battery analysts said that this technology is "the next level", not a higher level, similar to "the first time you saw an iPhone battery", but I think this is Apple's usual tactics, and it is not sold now. Surprisingly, to increase the mystery of the family, so I also want to know how good their batteries are.


According to Tesla’s last battery day conference, Tesla called it 4860 batteries. These new batteries will increase the energy capacity of Tesla’s EV batteries by five times, the power by six times, and increase the mileage of Tesla cars by 16%. ,


Well, now I will also share, how do I see the impact of Apple cars on Tesla's future? I think the biggest challenge for Apple cars in the future is on the production line. Tesla spent 17 years building this car kingdom From the production technology, Ai, battery patents, and now to the realization of large-scale production in factories, many people will ask Apple, "Now it is a car, not a phone. It is two things."


Does Apple have the ability to do this? But I also agree that because of Apple's financial ambitions, for them, there may be no money to solve things. It is said that Apple plans to rely on manufacturing partners to manufacture Vehicles, and are working with external partners to manufacture automotive parts, such as LiDAR sensors,


There are rumors that Apple is in early negotiations with well-known automotive electronics suppliers to find potential parts supplies that may be related to cars, and it is said that Apple is also working hard to build a factory in the United States to produce cars. According to the news, Mercedez Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, the three companies, will have the most opportunity to cooperate with Apple.


As the world's largest company-Apple, if it wants to implement things, no one may be able to stop it. But from the perspective of the overall automotive industry, the share of electric vehicles in the global passenger car market in 2020 will be about 3 %, even if Tesla currently occupies 18% of the electric car market, it is still a small proportion of a large market, but according to Bloomberg's analysis, by 2040, the sales of this electric car will account for the entire market in 2040 Of 35% this is a big market,


At this stage, many people are only better than Apple cars or Tesla better.


I don’t think that the emergence of Apple cars is the end of Tesla. People’s demand for electric cars will only increase in the future. The market has a lot of room for development and growth, so I think Tesla and Apple can coexist.


According to the understanding of ordinary Apple fans, Apple's products generally tend to be high-end, which represents a sign of wealth. If Apple uses Lidar technology, the price of Apple cars may not be affordable, and Elon Musk wants to help the world reduce Emissions, he has repeatedly proposed to reduce the price of each car to realize the idea that most people can afford Tesla.


For me, the business philosophy of these two companies is in different directions. There is a good chance that they target different customer groups. Just like the Samsung phone, Google phone, and iPhone, the seller can choose the company they like. Buy products, so I only think that these are electric cars of two different brands. Healthy competition will also improve the quality of the products. On the contrary, the release of Apple cars will have more opportunities to threaten other car manufacturers.


For example, Toyota, Volkswagen, etc. I just mentioned, have been behind Tesla for 6 years. The future of these veteran manufacturers is even more worrying. Please leave a message and tell me, what do you think of the Apple car concept? , Do you think there are only two kings in the future electric vehicle market? Or will a hundred flowers blossom?
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Gold(GLD) and crude oil(USO) plunge and lose their value?

Recently, the stock market has experienced ups and downs. During the financial crisis, gold, bonds, and even bitcoin, which have been regarded as value-preserving, have depreciated. Can't help but make many investors confused, why is it like this? gold Gold On February 24, due to the stock market crash, a large number of institutions sold gold to make up for the losses of these institutions in the stock market and to increase margin. The price of gold resumed its rise in early March and then fell to a lower level again on March 9. Many investors were confused. Should n’t gold be a hedge? Should n’t gold and the stock market rise in the opposite direction? All of this has nothing to do with the shortage of funds in the repo market. The Fed ’s bailout ceiling is far from enough, and then the Fed issued an emergency statement on March 12. "Starting on March 12, 500 billion bailouts will be provided. Tomorrow the Fed will provide another 500 billion three-month repurchase...
Post a Comment
Read more

The era of negative US interest rates coming?

Recently, the US Federal Reserve suddenly cut interest rates and US stocks fell sharply. Most investors believe that the ten-year bull market for US stocks has ended. In terms of the US dollar index, after a period of decline, the US dollar index rebounded sharply, indicating that risk aversion was high, and market funds were flowing to the US dollar to hedge. The Fed ’s interest rate cuts have not saved the US stock market. The Fed ’s interest rates are now very low. If the Fed continues to cut interest rates in the future, the United States will soon enter the era of negative interest rates. Take Europe and Japan as examples. Negative interest rates have not restored the country ’s economy. The future economic situation of the United States is not optimistic. The reason for the negative interest rate is that the investment must be profitable, otherwise, it will not be invested. If the profit is low or loss, the investor will directly deposit the profit to the bank. When socia...
Read more

The signal that the stock market has peaked?

the stock market Although I know how to judge when the bear market is over and when I should buy at the bottom, I still don't know how to judge the selling at the top. I'm afraid I don't know when to leave the market after buying stocks in the future. If you have also tried to avoid the crash, stock market crash, and even bear market, or always hold stocks at these times. These four tricks are based on my experience in the stock market for more than 10 years. They help me hold cash early before many market declines, so I suggest that you must see the end. It is likely to help you invest in stocks.  Raise to another level. Because knowing how to go is more important than knowing how to buy, and knowing how to go is an important factor in determining how much you can earn or lose. The first trick, everyone needs to learn to identify the Distribution Day. As the name implies, the shipping day is a day of huge selling pressure. On that day, it may be that large account...
Post a Comment
Read more

Will China's economy recover as the epidemic is under control?

During the Chinese Spring Festival, novel coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, and the Chinese stock market was hit hard. Subsequently, the Chinese government quickly took strict measures to block Wuhan, a city with a population of tens of thousands of people, to prevent the further spread of the epidemic, and to take corresponding epidemic prevention measures in other cities.  When the worst of the epidemic had already occurred, the Chinese stock market quickly rebounded. As the number of infections continues to decline, China's Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise further. Sars Period Looking back on similar events in the past, the SARS epidemic in 2003, the stock market also made a short-term decline, and then the SARS epidemic was brought under control, the stock market immediately went up for a long time. According to past historical data, the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the stock market may be short-lived. China Fund Capital Flow Howeve...
Post a Comment
Read more

Three stages of bull and bear markets!

The bull and bear markets of the stock market are traditional indicators of the business cycle. As an investor, distinguishing bull and bear markets in the stock market and grasping the long-term development direction of the market can avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations and the impact of complex market information.  For example, the market fluctuations brought by news information, the sudden and sharp drop in market prices, and the impact of investor sentiment have led to making wrong investment trading decisions. The stock market is in a bull market, most asset prices will continue to rise, and the stock market is in a bear market, most asset prices will continue to fall. Both bull and bear markets are divided into three stages, so how to tell whether the stock market is in a bull or bear market, and at what stage. S&P500 Index What is a bull market? In the first stage of the bull market, after the market economy was in recession, the stock price fe...
Post a Comment
Read more

Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high. The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range. The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said...
Post a Comment
Read more

Bear market coming, gold(GLD) assets become essential

The economic data of the global economic powers have been deteriorating, entering the bear market stage of the economy, and people have become more cautious when choosing asset investment. We should choose investment products with a low correlation coefficient with economic performance and investment products suitable for the current economic cycle. Investors should pay more attention to foreign exchange and commodity markets so that they can add value to your assets. Among many assets, anti-inflation commodities such as gold have become essential assets. Take gold as an example. For many years, gold has been regarded as an anti-inflation commodity by international capital markets and has been regarded as an important asset hedging tool by investors. There is also a saying, "The world bought gold during turbulent times." From basic political theory, we know that gold is not currency, and the currency is naturally gold and silver. Although gold has withdrawn from ...
Post a Comment
Read more

How to judge the market entry signal?

buy sell Most people lose money when investing in stocks. One of the biggest reasons is that they buy stocks at the wrong time. Why did they buy the stock at the wrong time? Facts have proved that many people do not know that stocks only rise 1/4 times, and that is the easiest time to make money. And in another 3/4 of the time, making money is difficult, and losing money is easier.  Today, I will share how to choose the right time to buy stocks. I hope you can see the final result because, in the end, I will share with you how to use simple technical indicators to help us find the exact input time. First of all, everyone must know a concept, whether it is a stock market or a stock, there are four stages. Let us take the stock market as an example. The first stage is called the "next stage".  At this time, the market has just experienced a sharp decline, and most investors in the market are not interested in the stock market, because their memories are still stuck in t...
Post a Comment
Read more

Safe-haven assets（GLD） are flowing into the market?

On March 9, 2020, the US Dow Jones Index plunged more than 2,000 points, the U.S. stock market crashed, the investment market was full of fear, and market funds flowed into those safe-haven assets? With the spread of the epidemic, the market's risk aversion has continued to increase, and the stock market has continued to fall. As an investor, to reduce investment risks, you must buy safe-haven assets, reduce the purchase or sale of assets in the stock market, and avoid a sharp decline in the stock market, which will cause serious losses. When market risks continue to increase, investors will continue to buy safe-haven assets. Investors should pay attention to the following several safe-haven assets and use them as safe-havens. Dow Jones Index The first safe-haven asset is gold. Gold（GLD）, as a traditional anti-inflation commodity, has always been the preferred safe-haven asset for investors. GLD The second safe-haven asset is the Japanese yen. Because the Japanese y...
Post a Comment
Read more

Many companies will China close in 2020?

Starting in March, all walks of life in China began to resume work. People stayed at home for more than two months. Many people's moods changed from tension to leisure, and now they are anxious.  It's not just the bosses who are anxious. Many employees find that their rents and mortgages are still being paid, the holidays are extended, they can't go to work, and their salaries aren't. Whenever there is no money it is a big problem. More than 700 companies closed down in February, but getting fewer wages is also better than the company suddenly closing down. In February, more than 700 companies have closed down, and this number should be exceeded.  Statistics show that more than 55% of catering businesses in China have resumed work, but compared to the same period last year, affected by the epidemic, 78% of catering companies have lost more than 100% of their operating income, and another 16% of them have lost over 70%.  This year's sudden outbreak, the impact...
Post a Comment
Read more