Skip to main content

The thinking of value investing



value investing

The epidemic continues to spread, the population of new crown infections keeps growing, and the world's economy is facing a huge cold winter. During this period, the death of black people in the United States even changed from anti-epidemic to protest, and economic and social life has always been difficult to return to the right track. But what is surprising is that the US Nasdaq index has gone out of the V-shaped reversal in just over two months, hitting a record high.

Looking at the record, some customers left the market in the stage of the world epic plunge in mid-March, and recently reluctantly added the position back, the difference between the previous one and the next 10-15%, this is almost a return The average return of a good fund manager in a year.

Sometimes, we always take a look at ourselves, thinking that we can sell high and sell low to make a difference, and even straighten the stock index line, but in the end, it is a fierce operation, all afterward. Two hundred and five. Some people in the stock market often say, "The banker seems to be staring at my hundreds of shares. I don't sell, I don't go up, I go up as soon as I sell." 

Although it is a joke, it proves that although there are thousands of retail investors, they don't know each other There is no contact with each other, but in this group, a large part of the people's psychological capacity and pressure limit and behavior under pressure are strikingly similar.

In the past few years of investment, I have gradually moved to the full operation of spare funds. During this period, I experienced a trade war between China and the United States, the new crown epidemic at home and abroad, and other crises, because I believe in the underlying logic of investment. source".

 The money earned by luck is always lost back by strength, and this is the reason. A gambler occasionally wins by luck in the casino, he will link the result to his unique vision and skill. Just like many so-called high-throwing, low-absorption masters, drawing lines and pictures, saying how much their technical means or spiritual feelings are like. 

The gambler He Hongshen will tell the gambler, you try again and again, the rules of the casino will tell you, your winning side is 49%, my winning side is 51%, even if this 2% gap you can pass again and again Note, lose your old books cleanly. Pitiful is pitiful because some people take their gambling too much after winning the first bet, and a certain comfortable profit will eventually lay the groundwork for a big defeat in the future.

Therefore, we must figure out why we are profitable and why we are losing money. The investment must be on the side with the greatest winning potential and do the right thing for a long time. The economic cycle, the ups, and downs of the stock market are natural laws and cannot be accurately predicted.


 If the economy is not good, we will adjust against the cycle, but it is not that we have made policy, and the economy will recover. This requires a process, but no one can say how long this process is. After buying a good stock or a good fund, it may still fall, and no one knows how much it fell.

 What we know is that it will hit a new high in a few years. The money we make with a strategy is also bound to lose money because the strategy does not match the market conditions. For example, if we buy a hedge fund, we may not have to experience a painful decline when the market plummets, but we will not be able to keep up with the rhythm of the market when the market rises.

And how to do a good investment, I still believe that learning and being able to establish your own set of correct investment strategies and ideas and the value of investment thinking is the most important.

Munger said, "The best way to get something is to equip yourself with it." Please believe the meaning of hard work, please believe the compound interest of time, when one day you deserve it, you will naturally have it.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Will China's economy recover as the epidemic is under control?

During the Chinese Spring Festival, novel coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, and the Chinese stock market was hit hard. Subsequently, the Chinese government quickly took strict measures to block Wuhan, a city with a population of tens of thousands of people, to prevent the further spread of the epidemic, and to take corresponding epidemic prevention measures in other cities.  When the worst of the epidemic had already occurred, the Chinese stock market quickly rebounded. As the number of infections continues to decline, China's Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise further. Sars Period Looking back on similar events in the past, the SARS epidemic in 2003, the stock market also made a short-term decline, and then the SARS epidemic was brought under control, the stock market immediately went up for a long time. According to past historical data, the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the stock market may be short-lived. China Fund Capital Flow Howeve...

Three stages of bull and bear markets!

The bull and bear markets of the stock market are traditional indicators of the business cycle. As an investor, distinguishing bull and bear markets in the stock market and grasping the long-term development direction of the market can avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations and the impact of complex market information.  For example, the market fluctuations brought by news information, the sudden and sharp drop in market prices, and the impact of investor sentiment have led to making wrong investment trading decisions. The stock market is in a bull market, most asset prices will continue to rise, and the stock market is in a bear market, most asset prices will continue to fall. Both bull and bear markets are divided into three stages, so how to tell whether the stock market is in a bull or bear market, and at what stage. S&P500 Index What is a bull market? In the first stage of the bull market, after the market economy was in recession, the stock price fe...

AMD stock forecast 2025: Q2 is expected to perform strongly

Before the US stock market on July 19, US technology stocks continued their decline last Friday, and AMD's stock price also continued to fall.  AMD will announce the results of the second quarter of 2021 on July 27. The market expects this performance to be strong, so this round of decline may be a great opportunity to buy the stock.  financial indicator  Due to the strong market demand for CPU and graphics cards in 2021, AMD’s revenue is expected to exceed the maximum value of the financial guidance. AMD’s C&G business is expected to grow the most because higher-priced AMD Ryzen and high-end AMD Radeon sales continue to increase.  In terms of gross profit margin, the market expects AMD's gross profit margin in Q2 2021 will increase by 47% year-on-year.  If the average selling prices of CPUs and GPUs continue to rise in Q2 of 2021, and the ASPs of CPUs and GPUs will increase in Q1 of 2021, the gross profit margin may also increase by 48%.  CPU market sh...

Teladoc stock forecast 2025: Is it time to buy TDOC?

 TDOC's performance exceeded expectations. Why did the performance decline after the announcement?  Teladoc (TDOC) reported quarterly earnings of US$0.13 per share, which exceeded the consensus estimate of a loss of US$0.57 per share. In the same period last year, it had a loss of US$0.4 per share.  The earnings of this financial report far exceeded expectations.  In the last quarter, people expected this telemedicine service company to lose 0.25 US dollars per share, but the actual loss per share was 0.27 US dollars, which was not as good as expected at the time.  In the past four quarters, TDOC exceeded expectations twice.  The management stated that the company's current momentum in various channels and regions should not be underestimated in the conference call. It has raised its annual revenue guidance to 20 million U.S. dollars, which is expected to be between 1.97 billion and 2.02 billion U.S. dollars.    In the first quarter, the comp...

Shopify stock forecast 2025:Is it worth buying?

  In the last year, the stocks rose relatively well. Another sector is e-commerce. Whether it is Amazon, Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, SEA or vertical e-commerce platforms Etsy and Chewy, all of them have experienced huge gains, while another category has benefited from the e-commerce sector.  The company is a website building tool company such as Shopify BigCommerce Holdings. Today I will talk about shopify, the leader of website building tools.  First, let's briefly talk about shopify's business model. To put it simply, shopify is a fool-like website building platform. In the past, when a company wanted to build a corporate website, it generally needed to find a dedicated person to design and maintain the website.  If you want to add shopping functions to the website, the cost of building the website will also increase. This is true for many small businesses and individual businesses.   A very difficult thing. Shopify uses the SAAS model to provide websit...

Will the Great Depression make a comeback?

the Great Depression On March 21, 2020, the United States already had initial unemployment data. Exceeding market expectations, the number of applicants reached 3.28 million, a record high. The current unemployment situation in the United States. Before March 7, employment in the United States was not affected by the epidemic. In the week of March 7, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous week. It is still healthy. This shows that the United States is in a good employment track range. The actual data began to fluctuate, that is, the data for the week of March 14, the number of people applying for relief reached 282,000, a slight increase. On March 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits soared to a record high this week. 1.7 million people have far exceeded expectations, and market expectations are about 1.5 to 1.7 million people. It can be said...

Why has international oil(USO) prices plummeted?

As OPEC and Russia failed in negotiations and could not reach an agreement to reduce production, Saudi Arabia issued a comprehensive production increase announcement. Russia followed Saudi Arabia to increase production.  Due to the sharp increase in oil supply, international oil prices plummeted, and US stocks were affected by the spread of the epidemic, and international oil prices The plunge, the U.S. stock market plummeted, triggering multiple fuses. S&P500 Index Oil is a commodity whose price is affected by supply and demand. When oil production increases, supply increases, prices fall, and at the same time affected by the epidemic, demand decreases, and prices also fall. Oil supply increases and demand decreases, which is the main cause of the plunge in international oil prices. In terms of oil supply, since the United States developed shale oil, US oil production has become the world's largest. The production cost of shale oil is more than US $ 40, which is the ...

Palantir stock forecast 2025: What kind of company is PLTR?

 PLTR introduced today may be the most controversial company in the current market, not one of them.  As a stock, he is the faith stock of many retail investors. Those who believe in it generally believe that its stock price can double at least ten times in the future.  Catherine Wood, the president of the ARK Fund, nicknamed "the light of retail investors," continues to buy the stock, which is also highly sought after on the WSB forum; on the contrary, most analysts on Wall Street are not optimistic about its development.  The average target price at the end of 2021 is still 10% lower than the current stock price.  As a company, its revenue is growing steadily and rapidly, with an annual growth rate of about 30% per year. However, the company has never achieved profitability in the past 20 years since its establishment.  As a high-tech enterprise, the company is full of various genius ideas and the top talents in the industry, but they are mostly engaged i...

TSM Stock Forecast and Price Target 2021

Today, I will analyze TSMC stocks in-depth with you. In the semiconductor sector, TSMC has always been my most promising stock. TSMC has just announced its results for the fourth quarter of 2020. At the same time, there are new developments in the entire chip industry recently. Therefore, today I will combine the financial report and chips. The latest developments in the industry to analyze the trend of TSMC stocks, First of all, we analyze TSMC’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 financial reports to see what are the key points worthy of investors’ attention. First, TSMC’s fourth-quarter revenue and profitability are very good.  Compared with the outlook for Q4 in Q3, the outlook at that time was US$12.4-12.7 billion, and the actual revenue was US$12.68 billion. Actual revenue As the upper limit of the outlook, the gross profit margin outlook is 51.5%-53.5%, while the actual gross profit margin is 54%, which is better than the outlook. The operating net profit margin is expected t...

NIO stock forecast 2025: 2021 Q1 report analysis

 April 30, NIO announced the first quarter of the 2021 financial report.  Revenue reached 7.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 481.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 20.2%; gross profit was 1.5548 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 36.2%, and last year was -167.5 million yuan; a net loss of 350 million yuan was significantly narrowed year-on-year and month-on-month.  Various indicators show that NIO's performance in the first quarter of this year is very impressive.  Gross profit margin exceeds 20% for the first time  NIO’s Q1 car sales were 7.40058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 489.8% and a month-on-month increase of 20.0%.  The gross profit margin of automobile sales was 21.2%, exceeding 20% ​​for the first time, a significant increase from -7.4% in Q1 of 2020 and 17.2% in Q4 of 2020.  In addition, Weilai's Q1 comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 will also reach 19.5%.  The founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO sai...