The stock market entering a bear market？

On March 6, 2020, the US stock market continued its decline today after a few days of rebound. Is this the beginning of a bear market in the stock market? Next, let's analyze one important indicator of entering the bear market, Treasury bonds yield.

What is the yield of Treasury bonds? Treasury bonds are a tool issued by the state to raise funds. When the bonds are issued, they promise to repay the principal and interest on a specified date. The ratio of the return of Treasury bonds to the principal invested is the return of Treasury bonds.

The main factors affecting bond yield include coupon rate, maturity, face value, holding time, purchase price, and sale price. Rising bond yields and falling bond prices mean investors are selling bonds, turning to invest activities, or entering the stock market.

In a healthy economic environment, the longer the Treasury bonds, the higher the bond yield. Because short-term bonds are more liquid, investors are willing to accept lower yields. Linking the bond yields of different years on the chart is the bond yield curve.

The remaining maturity of the bond is on the abscissa and the bond yield is on the ordinate. The bond yield curve can reflect the current market economic conditions, and it is expected that the market economy will trend in the future.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Investors believe that bond yields are upside down and the market economy is about to decline. This situation usually occurs once every ten years, but after each occurrence, the market economy will decline.

So, what is an inverted yield curve? Will there be a recession? The inverted yield curve means that the long-term Treasury bonds yield is lower than the short-term Treasury bonds yield. When investors are not optimistic about the market economy or the economy is in recession, the market expects the Fed to reduce the chances of raising interest rates, and even implement loose monetary policy, implement interest rate reductions, or quantitative easing.

Market funds sell short-term bond markets and buy long-term bonds. Short-term bond prices fell, and short-term bond yields rose. In contrast, long-term bond prices rose and long-term bond yields fell. When an inverted yield curve occurs, it will also affect the operation of the physical enterprise and the operation of the market economy.

S&P500 Index

By analyzing the historical data of the US stock market, an economic recession has occurred in the past decades when an inverted yield curve occurs. As an investor, when the economic bubble appears and an inverted yield curve occurs, it is necessary to predict that a bear market is imminent and make the correct investment transaction deployment.

Comments

NIO and Tesla(TSLA) stock forecast 2025: released important news

In the past two days, two electric vehicle companies, NIO and Tesla have released important news. However, the market gave mixed reactions, one rose and the other fell. Let's take a look at what happened. To NIO stock forecast 2025 Let me talk about NIO first. NIO announced this morning that the company will issue additional shares totaling US$2 billion. The price of the additional issuance will be based on the current market price, and the timing of the issuance will be determined according to the company’s needs. It may be a one-time sale or a share. Wholesale sale. After calculation, this will cause about a 3% equity dilution for existing shareholders. However, the market seems to have given more interpretation. Today, NIO's share price has fallen by 6.3%, which is more than twice the theoretical dilution. To From the prospectus, the company only stated broadly that the funds raised will be used to strengthen its bala...

What is the average cost method?

Due to the recent plunge in the global market, I noticed that some people came out to promote an investment method called the fool-style stock disaster investment method. The thinking behind it is similar to other lazy investment methods, or monthly stocks/funds, just to change the saying, I will dismantle the problems behind you one by one. Let you see the risks you need to bear, first look at the logic behind this method. Its approach is this when the market drops 10%, you invest 20% of the funds to buy stock market ETFs when the market drops 20%, you invest another 20% when the market drops 30%, you invest another 20%, And so on. Until the market drops by 50%, you will put all the funds into the market, and when your average cost is equal to the market drops by 30%, you will buy all the funds in the market ETF (that is, All in). It is a kind of average cost method. The principle of this method is that, first, he believes that the maximum decline in the market is about 50%. A...

What is the meaning of NFT and NFT stocks?

Not long ago, Christie’s, a century-old auction house, successfully auctioned a sky-high price for NFT digital artworks, which eventually sold for more than US$69 million. What is the meaning of NFT? The full name of NFT is Non-Fungible Token, which is a non-homogeneous token, which can be understood as a genuine authentication certificate encrypted by blockchain technology. Because of its encrypted and unique characteristics, it is currently widely used in the field of digital art. As long as it is a digital version of art, everything can be NFT, including but not limited to pictures, music, games, videos, and even a single tweet can become NFT. Jack Dorsey, the founder, and CEO of Twitter posted the first tweet "Just setting up my Twitter" on Twitter, which was only 5 English words, and the price was as high as 2.9 million US dollars. The NFT boom is sweeping, and related concept stocks have already taken off. There are many more popular science introductions about NFT, wh...

Will China's economy recover as the epidemic is under control?

During the Chinese Spring Festival, novel coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, and the Chinese stock market was hit hard. Subsequently, the Chinese government quickly took strict measures to block Wuhan, a city with a population of tens of thousands of people, to prevent the further spread of the epidemic, and to take corresponding epidemic prevention measures in other cities. When the worst of the epidemic had already occurred, the Chinese stock market quickly rebounded. As the number of infections continues to decline, China's Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise further. Sars Period Looking back on similar events in the past, the SARS epidemic in 2003, the stock market also made a short-term decline, and then the SARS epidemic was brought under control, the stock market immediately went up for a long time. According to past historical data, the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the stock market may be short-lived. China Fund Capital Flow Howeve...

4 economic indicators that must be observed!

Stocks are one of the simplest and most passive types of income, but when we invest in the stock market, we always feel that the current stock price is on the high side, but if we don’t enter the market to buy stocks, we are afraid that the stock price will continue to rise. When the U.S. stock market continues to hit new highs, should it enter the market or should it wait and see and wait for the crash to enter the market. First of all, I want to declare that I am a value investor and insist on the BUY AND HOLD operation method. We all know that stocks are cyclical, and we are now experiencing the longest bull market in history. Stock market analysts believe that a crash may come at any time, but we just have no way to predict the specific time. I believe everyone understands. But I know that a bear market will definitely come. The long-term trend of stocks often has several economic data as a reference. Today we will take a look at these economic data. source: tradingview...

Investors have begun to switch back to traditional growth stocks

On Thursday, the stock prices of Cisco, Alphabet, and IBM hit new highs. But more importantly, the previously unpopular speculative growth stocks, including stocks bought by many ARK funds, have now begun to rebound. How is this going? Investors' perspective on the market is changing. In the first quarter of this year, mainstream voices in the market believe that the economy will restart strongly, bond yields will rise, and inflation may become a problem later this year. After the end of the first quarter, these expectations were only partially fulfilled. The U.S. economy has indeed restarted strongly, but bond yields fell in the first quarter instead of rising because investors began to believe: 1) Inflation and supply chain disruption may indeed be "temporary", as the Fed insists; 2) The second and third quarters will be the highest points of stock returns and economic growth. Alec Young, a chief investment officer of Tactical Alpha, said: “...

Barrick Gold stock price soars after Warren Buffett's buys a stake?

Has Buffett bought gold ? Buffett has not changed. Buffett does not want to hold physical gold, but he has never said that he will not buy shares in gold mining companies. Looking at the entire market, there are not many stocks that fit Buffett's trading. And Barrick Gold Company is just one of them. Buffett bought nearly 21 million shares, and the current share value is $563 million. We now look at the underlying logic of Buffett's purchase of Barrick Gold stock. Compared with physical gold ETFs, gold mining companies can respond positively to market conditions. There are financial reports to analyze, With dividends and stock repurchase plans, gold mining companies have the right to reward shareholders through capital return plans. In contrast, the physical gold ETF has no gains. The market generally believes that it is still in the upward cycle of gold prices . The current international environment is one where black swans emerge one after another. While paying att...

The era of negative US interest rates coming?

Recently, the US Federal Reserve suddenly cut interest rates and US stocks fell sharply. Most investors believe that the ten-year bull market for US stocks has ended. In terms of the US dollar index, after a period of decline, the US dollar index rebounded sharply, indicating that risk aversion was high, and market funds were flowing to the US dollar to hedge. The Fed ’s interest rate cuts have not saved the US stock market. The Fed ’s interest rates are now very low. If the Fed continues to cut interest rates in the future, the United States will soon enter the era of negative interest rates. Take Europe and Japan as examples. Negative interest rates have not restored the country ’s economy. The future economic situation of the United States is not optimistic. The reason for the negative interest rate is that the investment must be profitable, otherwise, it will not be invested. If the profit is low or loss, the investor will directly deposit the profit to the bank. When socia...

AMZN stock forecast 2025： Amazon's main advantages

On July 6, after the US stock market opened, Amazon broke through $3,600, a record high. Amazon has been oscillating between 3000-3500 US dollars in the past year, and the stock price finally broke through. Amazon is a stock that has a high valuation from PE but is seriously undervalued by the market from the perspective of its development prospects. It is one of my favorite technology stocks. Amazon's main advantages are: 1. Amazon's current GMV is only half that of Alibaba. Looking at the current penetration rate of e-commerce in China and the future penetration rate of e-commerce in the United States, we will find that Amazon e-commerce has huge growth potential in the United States. Amazon e-commerce is far from saturated in the United States. 2. Cloud computing has unlimited potential. As the industry leader, Amazon's cloud computing can maintain a growth rate of 20%-30% for many years in the future. 3. The international ...

7 great investors' operating strategies to deal with the stock!

No one can be 100% sure about the outlook for the US stock market. Instead of entangled in whether the bull market in US stocks will end, it is better to think about what lessons can be learned from this plunge. Historically, due to the end of the summer market in September, U.S. stocks did not perform well. The plunge on Thursday sounded like a wake-up call for investors earlier. Be careful next week. Although Nasdaq is tolerant of faults The rate is high, but the up-and-down shock pattern has not changed, and there needs to be an established process. Investing in stocks should take a long-term view, have a long-term investment mentality, don't care too much about the rise and fall of one or two days, and don't feel unhappy because of the turmoil of the stock market, which affects the judgment of stock buying and selling. Today, let's take a look at how those familiar investment masters are invincible. The reason why masters become masters is that they have become masters ...

FinanceLinkway

Search This Blog